ABSTRACTS

011. China’s Perspective: The Status Quo of the North Korean Nuclear Issue and the Approach for its Solution, by Wang Fan, Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University. This paper has analyzed the internal and external factors that prompted North Korea to strive for nuclear capacity, and reappraised its nuclear policies, while contradicting 6 view points of western scholars on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue through demonstrating North Korea’s motivation to acquire nuclear capacity, the effects of a forced denuclearization, procedure paradox for resolving the Korean nuclear issue, China’s role in resolving the Korean nuclear issue, the possibility of North Korea’s economic reform, and the future of the Six-Party Talk. This article believes that the denuclearization process of North Korea must be closely linked with its security, while the reality of denuclearization is associated with its economic reform. Therefore, efforts must be made to effectively strengthen position and policy coordination of the five parties with North Korea within the Six-Party Talk, and to integrate the fragmented regional security situation through a multilateral mechanism.

212. A Retrospect of the Korean Peninsula Situation in 2019, by Yang Xilian, Senior Adviser of CIISS. In 2019, the Korean Peninsula was caught in the denuclearization game between the US and the DPRK, and the strategic game of great powers in Northeast Asia. The US moved proactively to promote its Indo-Pacific strategy in the Korean Peninsula, while China and Russia confronted the US directly, and South Korea sought a synergy with the US Indo-Pacific strategy. As a result, a new situation emerged in the strategic game over the Korean Peninsula, with game amid relaxation becoming a new normal. The tense situation in the Korean Peninsula was relaxed; the intensity of military confrontation was reduced; and the security situation was evolving without drastic changes or warming up. The sanctions and restriction the US placed on North and South Koreas respectively cast a shadow on the relations between the DPRK and the ROK. Although relationship between the DPRK and the ROK was somewhat relaxed, there were also setbacks: military settlement was making headway, while military cooperation agreement was left unfulfilled; and the channel for cooperation dialog remained open, while cooperation and exchanges stalled. Despite the efforts made by relevant countries to promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the establishment of a permanent peace mechanism in the peninsula, the denuclearization process stopped at the “dual suspension” phase with signs of passivation emerging on the Korean Peninsula issue.

353. Restraint and Breakthrough: A Probe into the Approach of Raising China’s Normative Discourse Power in the Arctic Council, by Dr. Xiao Yang, Associate Professor at School of International Relations, BISU and Guest Researcher of CPDS. The acts of the Arctic Council as the most influential international organization in Arctic region to formulate rules and regulations have profoundly affected the evolution of the Arctic order. China is a stakeholder of the Arctic affairs, and it is also a latecomer to Arctic governance at the same time. To integrate into the governance pattern of the Arctic dominated by Western countries, China needs to safeguard its interests in the Arctic through the Arctic Council. Therefore, to gain and raise normative discourse power is an important objective of China in institutionally participating in the governance of the Arctic. With its international prestige rising and the environment for Arctic governance changing, China needs to raise its normative discourse power in the Arctic Council in order to protect its reasonable rights in the Arctic. At present, China may make full use of its right to attend council meetings to improve its knowledge about the rule and regulation formulation by the Arctic Council, before gradually breaking the restriction on its status and rights as well as the monopoly of the normative discourse power held by the Arctic states on the governance of the Arctic.

504. The Middle East Situation in 2019: Intensifying Crises Internally and Externally, and the Imbalance of the Regional Pattern, by Qin Tian, Associate Research Professor at Institute for Middle East Studies, CICIR; and Dong Bing, Assistant Research Professor at Institute for Middle East Studies, CICIR. The Middle East situation in 2019 is characterized by intensifying crises both internally and externally, and the imbalance of the regional pattern. From a major-country perspective, the extreme pressures put by the US on Iran are unprecedentedly severe, while Iran is trying to fight back, with them wandering on the brink of conflict. As a result, the security of the Persian Gulf and West Asia is hanging on the stalemate between the US and Iran. From a regional point of view, persisting popular protests have occurred in Sudan, Algeria, Iraq and Lebanon, not only challenging the old political system, but also likely to unfold a new version of “Arab Spring”. The unrest roaring on in these four countries has much weakened the solidarity of the Arab camp, hence providing opportunities for Turkey, Israel and Iran to contend for regional power, which has further tilted the balance of power in the region. The tense relations between the US and Iran, the weakening of the Arab world, and the imbalance of regional pattern are old problems with new features, which is continuing to roil the Middle East situation.

685. The ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific and its Strategic Implications, by Zhou Shixin, Director of Neighborhood Diplomacy Research Section under the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies and Associate Research Fellow at Center for Asia-Pacific Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies. In June of 2019, the 34th ASEAN summit issued the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific to illuminate ASEAN’s new perceptions about regional cooperation. Although ASEAN is trying to clarify the geographical scope which used to be blurred for its regional cooperation, the new definition of the Indo-Pacific is still blurry though much extended in scope. However, this has indicated that a consensus is basically reached within ASEAN to strengthen cooperation in a wider regional area. Despite the differences and qualified opinions within ASEAN during reaching the consensus, it has indicated the determination and ambition of ASEAN to strive to avoid being marginalized in the major country game under the critical circumstances that the international and regional situation is currently in an accelerated transition as well as do its best to safeguard and strengthen the centrality of ASEAN in regional cooperation and promote common development and prosperity among its member states. The ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific can be said a way for ASEAN’s selfprotection, reflecting the deep sense of urgency held by the ASEAN member states. Nevertheless, this document also reflects, to some extent, the influence by the Indo-Pacific strategy pursued by the US, Japan, Australia and France, thus having certain limitations. The future of ASEAN calls for a spirit more in line with ASEAN’s endeavor to promote regional common interests and more able to reflect its inclusiveness, openness and cooperativeness so as to provide stronger and more tenacious impetus to building a higher quality ASEAN community and promoting regional peace and prosperity.

806. The American Factor in China-Latin America Relationship, by Dr. Cao Ting, Assistant Research Professor at Institute for Latin America Studies, CICIR. In recent years, China’s relations with Latin American countries have developed rapidly in a sustainable way, which has alarmed the Trump administration of the United States. As a result, the US government has taken multiple measures to publicly intervene in the cooperation between China and the Latin American countries, including frequently making anti-China remarks on Latin American affairs, stepping up the momentum of cracking down on left-wing regimes in Latin America, drawing in right-wing regimes to form an anti-China camp, and putting warnings on those Latin American countries that have just established diplomatic ties with China. These measures of the Trump administration have been effective to some extent, as some of the Latin American countries have made adjustment to their attitudes toward China. However, from a long-term point of view, China’s cooperation with Latin American countries will maintain a good momentum in view of the essential characteristics of China-US, US-Latin America, and China-Latin America relationship. It cannot be ignored that the US will continue to intervene into China-Latin America relationship. Therefore, China should properly cope with the American factor in its relations with the Latin American countries to ensure constructive interaction within the trilateral relationship.

977. The Progress and Challenges of the Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia, by Guo Jinfeng, Post-Doctor at National Institute of International Strategy, CASS. Being the hinterland of Eurasia, Central Asia is not only one of the regions bordering China on land, but also a converging point of multiple cultures that joins various land routes on the continent of Eurasia. For their unique geographical locations, the five Central Asian states have been contended for by major countries of the world and various political forces ever since their independence after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. In September of 2013, when visiting Kazakhstan, President Xi Jinping proposed the initiative to build the “Silk Road Economic Belt” for the first time, which received active response from the Central Asian countries. Over the past six years, Central Asia has become one of the regions where the Belt and Road Initiative has achieved the most results and made the fastest progress. However, due to the complicated internal and external environment of the region, the Belt and Road Initiative is also facing various complex situation and challenges in Central Asia. This paper has sorted out the achievements the Belt and Road Initiative has made in Central Asia and summarized five challenges the Belt and Road Initiative is facing in the Central Asian countries, namely their political stability, military security, domestic economic and social issues, conflict of interests among them, and influence and intervention by other countries of the world. Faced with these risks and challenges, we should take into account the interests of all parties in promoting regional cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia so as to jointly build a China-Central Asia “community of common interests” and “community with a shared future”.

1138. The History of China’s Energy Diplomacy and its Characteristics in the New Era, by Zhang Rui, Research Fellow at Institute of Economics and Technology, Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization. Over the past 70 years since the founding of new China, energy diplomacy has become an important part of China’s overall diplomatic endeavor. Based on different policy contents, China’s energy diplomacy may be divided into four phases, namely conducting diplomacy within the Socialist Camp, implementing the “Going-Out” strategy, expanding the source of oil import, and promoting comprehensive cooperation. Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC, China’s energy diplomacy has led the energy revolution into a new era, manifesting multiple new features such as jointly building an energy community with a shared future with the oil exporting countries, promoting the development of clean energy, boosting energy cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, and strengthening global energy governance under the guidance of “four revolutions and one cooperation” strategy. Looking back in history, China’s energy diplomacy has formed a series of good traditions with distinct features. Faced with complicated situation, China’s energy diplomacy needs to earnestly plan a highly effective and affordable overseas interest-protection system globally, strengthen the building of foreign cooperation mechanism, advance the global energy revolution strategy in a systematic and planned way, and create a greater framework for energy diplomacy.