基于空间引力模型的土地储备成本收益研究

郭茹 刘新平

摘要：以克拉玛依市主城区为研究区，将其划分为14个土地储备潜力评价区，构建土地储备成本和收益科目计算体系，引入圈层理论与空间引力模型对土地储备成本和收益进行分析。结果表明，克拉玛依市区土地储备总成本为247 241.73万元，平均单位面积土地储备成本355.86万元/hm2，土地预期总收益为213 546.92万元，平均单位面积土地储备收益307.36万元/hm2。一级圈层土地储备成本每公顷上涨1万元，将带动二级圈层土地储备成本平均每公顷增加0.46万元，单位空间距离上的波动衰减量为0.27万元/km;二级圈层与三级圈层单位空间距离上的波动衰减量为0.19万元/km。一级圈层土地储备收益每公顷增加1万元，对二级圈层黑油山片区和风华片区波动引力值达到0.62万～0.64万元，衰减幅度达到36%，引力衰减量为0.19万元/km;一三级圈层与二三级圈层引力衰减幅度分别为89%和90%，衰减力量相当。土地储备成本随着城市外扩呈递减趋势，克拉玛依市当前应合理配置土地储备财政资金，科学布局土地储备规划规模，主要选取市场需求较热、基础设施配备较完善、土地储备成本较低的土地进行储备，并在制度范围内突破融资渠道。

关键词：土地储备;成本收益;空间引力;克拉玛依市

中图分类号：F301.2         文献标识码：A

文章编号：0439-8114（2019）09-0142-07

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2019.09.034           開放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：

Abstract： Taking the main city of Karamay as the research area， which is divided into 14 land reserve potential evaluation areas， the land reserve cost and income is analyzed by constructing the land reserve cost and income account calculation system， and introducing the circle theory and space gravity model. The results show that the total cost of land reserve in Karamay city is 2，472，417，300 yuan; the average land area cost per unit area is 3，558，600 yuan/hm2; the total expected land income is 2，135，649，200 yuan; and the average unit area land reserve income is 3，073，600 yuan/hm2. When the land storage and storage cost of the first-level circle increase by 10，000 yuan/hm2， it will increase the average cost of land storage and storage in the second-level circle by 4 600 yuan/hm2; and the fluctuation of the unit space distance is 2 700 yuan/km. The fluctuation of the unit space between the second layer and the third layer is 1 900 yuan/km. The wave gravitational attraction value of the Heiyoushan area and Fenghua area of the second layer is 6 200～6 400 yuan; the attenuation amplitude is 36%; and the gravitation attenuation is 1 900 yuan/km. The gravitational forces attenuation amplitudes of the first-three level and second-third are 89% and 90%， respectively; and the attenuation power is equivalent. The cost of land storage and storage will decrease with the expansion of the city. Karamay city should rationally allocate land reserve financial funds， scientifically plan the scale of land reserve planning， mainly select land with hot market demand， better infrastructure and low land acquisition and storage， and break through financing channels within the system.

Key words： land reserve; cost and income; spatial attraction; Karamay