Avoiding the Trap

The “Thucydides Trap” has become a hot concept in academic and political discussions across the world. But does it really exist？ Or more specifi cally， is a war inevitable between a rising power and an established power？ Amid the current friction between China and the U.S.， there is a heightened interest in fi nding the answer.

In June 2017， Graham Allison， a prominent international political expert in the U.S. and the first dean of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University who coined the term five years earlier， published a book titled Destined for War： Can America and China Escape Thucydidess Trap？ in which he elaborates his views. Do China and the U.S. want a war？ Of course， not， he said. But will the structural pressures the two countries face lead to confl ict？ Yes， he answered. After an examination of more than a dozen historical cases， Allison warned that the risk of war is real. But as an optimist， he believes that China and the U.S. can work together to fi nd a path of peaceful development.

In an exclusive interview with China Focus， an online magazine published by the China International Publishing Group， Allison admitted that Chinas rapid development is causing panic in the U.S. With changes in the China-U.S. power balance， the two countries currently interact in a way that puts pressure on both of them. He has repeatedly stressed that the establishment of new strategic relations between China and the U.S. has become a top priority. An edited excerpt of the interview follows：

China Focus： How do you view current Sino-U.S. relations？ Are Sino-U.S. relations slipping into a new cold war？

Graham Allison： In the U.S.， this is not just about [President Donald] Trump； the whole U.S. political class and actually the whole policy class have essentially undergone a sea change. This turned everything upside down： Now， a country that for two decades was Americas strategic partner is named Americas strategic adversary.

Confucius said the most important thing is to call things by their real name. So， if the real name is not strategic partner but strategic adversary， then that changes everything. Does Washington have a coherent idea on what to do？ No， nothing. It seems that it has an attitude， not a strategy.

People initially were hoping that they were wrong because of Trump， or that maybe he would get entangled after the election， investigations about his actions would distract him and it would all go away. But I think that most people in the government now understand that view is not correct. The stra- tegic concept of the relationship between the U.S. and China has essentially collapsed.

And therefore， were drifting into a Thucydidean dynamic that Ive written about in my book， not just toward a new cold war， but what could be a real war， God forbid. Thats where we are today and I think now， theres a search—certainly in Beijing—for a new strategic concept.

Is Chinas rise a threat to the U.S.？

Im very fortunate to be here in Beijing to help celebrate the 40th anniversary of Chinas normalization of relations with the U.S. I think anybody who watches what happened over the last 40 years has to be astounded. Its been a whole series of miracles.

In 1978， 90 percent of Chinese people were struggling just to survive on $2 a day. But in 2018， that number was only 1 percent and President Xi Jinping says it will be zero by the end of 2020. Thats 700 million people who used to just barely survive and now have a life. Thats a great achievement for humankind and as a fellow citizen of planet Earth， the Chinese people should be proud.

The Chinese dream is about China trying to realize its potential， be everything China can be and make China great again， and thats understandable. But its one thing to say what is your intention and another thing to be realistic about what the consequences are， even unintended consequences.

So the unintended consequence of Chinas rise has been its worldwide impact. From an American perspective， China hardly mattered， was very little 40 years ago and was encouraged to grow up.

For Americans， its rise is shocking. Life is going to be very difficult because China will continue rising and the U.S. will continue thinking it should be the ruling power and that interaction will be stressful for both parties.

Thats the reason why， looking ahead， if we want to have a successful future together， it wont be the same as the last 40 years. But maybe we could construct a new form of great power relations， a new form that the world has never seen before. But， thats pretty hard to do.

Its diffi cult to create something entirely new. However， we live in a world where there wasnt an Internet 20 years ago or smartphones 10 years ago. So new things are being invented， and maybe in this area， we could be inventive.

How do you view Chinas Belt and Road Initiative？

I think the Belt and Road Initiative is a brilliant diplomatic initiative for China. I would say it has about 10 strands， but one strand has to do with the image of China helping integrate the world and develop the nodes along the network that runs from China to Europe and maybe beyond.

If there can be a high-speed rail that runs from Shanghai to Rotterdam and moves goods in a day or a day and a half， that would be fantastic. And if there can be a 5G backbone that allows people to use their smartphones to download in a second things that now take 15 minutes， that would be fantastic， and you know， we would all use it.

But if its all done to Chinas standards， it will also be a source of influence for China. And again I have to say， thats normal international politics. The rest of the world， especially the U.S.， is having trouble coming up with another idea to compete with this idea.

Are you optimistic or pessimistic about Chinas economic development？

Im always optimistic. Ive been optimistic about Chinas growth for the last 10 years， even though many outsiders have said China is slowing down and its going to have a hard landing. China has huge obstacles. Theres no doubt about that.

But it has a very capable government and a very determined leadership. They have many tools， including policy tools which they can use effectively. I think the question of whether China and the U.S. can fi nd a way to have a degree of agreement and even a new strategic concept for a constructive relationship will be a big challenge.