China-Nordic Blue Economic Passage: Basis, Challenges and Paths

Zheng Yingqin

In June 2017, the Chinese government issued the Vision for Maritime Cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is the first systematic proposal containing ideas and blueprints for promoting maritime cooperation within the BRI framework. The Vision suggested focusing on the construction of three blue economic passages.1The three blue economic passages are the China-Indian Ocean-Africa-Mediterranean Sea Blue Economic Passage, the China-Oceania-South Pacific Blue Economic Passage, and an envisioned blue economic passage leading up to Europe via the Arctic Ocean. See National Development and Reform Commission and State Oceanic Administration, Vision for Maritime Cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, June 20, 2017, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-06/20/c_136380414.htm.As one cornerstone of the Belt and Road Initiative, building the blue economic passage is also a concrete action in the construction of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. By laying the foundation for maritime partnerships, and by fostering connectivity, exchanges and cooperation in the fields of marine access and infrastructure, marine economy, marine culture and marine technology, building the blue economic passage would improve the allocation of resources and facilitate the development of marine economic network. Of the three blue economic passages, the one “leading up to Europe via the Arctic Ocean” is particularly striking, because of two reasons. First, as the Arctic Ocean connects Asia, Europe and North America, and roughly 90% of international trade among the three continents takes place in the northern hemisphere, this passage could become a very significant route for international trade. Second, most countries adjacent to this passage in the Arctic region are developed economies, with a comparatively exceptional geopolitical environment. To construct this passage would have to involve cooperation with developed economies, strict environmental requirements, and complex geopolitical implications.2Yang Jian, “The International Environment for Building the ‘Polar Silk Road’ and China’s Response,” Frontiers, No.11, 2018, pp.13-23.Therefore, in addition to the economic dimension, the construction of this passage will also be particularly instructive for improving exchanges and cooperation in the fields of environment, ecology and scientific research.

The Nordic region is an essential region on the route of the blue economic passage leading up to Europe via the Arctic Ocean. Therefore, the significance of cooperation between China and the Nordic countries is of paramount importance. The Nordic region consists mainly of five countries which are traditionally regarded as small states: Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland and Iceland; and their self-governing territories (provinces), namely the Faroe Islands (Denmark), Greenland (Denmark) and the Aland Islands (Finland). The cooperation between China and the Nordic countries involves interactions between the world's largest developing country and these smaller, yet highly developed economies. The uniqueness of the Arctic region and the Nordic countries' pioneering accomplishments in scientific research mean that cooperation in the fields of scientific and technological innovation will become a central part of the blue economy passage. In light of this, it is necessary to conduct more in-depth studies on the feasibility and approaches for China and the Nordic countries to jointly build a blue economic passage that links Europe via the Arctic Ocean.

Basis and Motivations of China-Nordic Blue Economic Passage

There are advantageous conditions for common efforts by China and the Nordic countries to build a blue economic passage linking Europe via the Arctic Ocean. In particular, both sides share similar views about their maritime strategies and cooperation, have complementary demands, mutually relevant policies, practical experience, and enjoy a positive atmosphere for collaboration. All this together has created a rational foundation and cooperation momentum for the construction of the blue economic passage.

Conceptual basis: highly compatible views on maritime development

Congruence on ideas is the fundamental motivation for cooperation. China and the Nordic countries have a high degree of consensus on developing the marine economy, promoting sustainable marine use, and enhancing global ocean governance cooperation. This can be demonstrated in the ocean policies of both sides.

First, both sides emphasize the importance of the marine economy. The Vision released in 2017 by the Chinese side points out that “sharing a blue space and developing the blue economy” is the main theme of cooperation in the joint efforts to build the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, and advocates new concepts and new practices of the blue economy. Geographically speaking, as the Nordic countries are all coastal countries, the marine economy plays a key role in their national economies. The Nordic countries have highlighted the development of the marine economy in their maritime strategies and policy documents. For example, in its ocean strategy released in 2017, the Norwegian government explicitly declared that its chief strategic goal is “for Norway to be the top oceanbased economy.”3Norwegian Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries and Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, New Growth, Proud History: The Norwegian Government's Ocean Strategy, April 2017.

Second, both sides stress the sustainability of marine use and advocate a balance between marine development and conservation. The Chinese Vision emphasizes that the marine economy is a “blue engine” for sustainable development, and that “ensuring the health of the ocean contributes to improving human well-being for present and future generations.” The Vision also advises the protection and sustainable use of oceans and marine resources, and calls for jointly building a blue economic passage by protecting the marine environment and taking a path of green development. The maritime strategies of the Nordic countries emphasize the need to meet the sustainable development goals proposed by the United Nations, and have recommended “blue growth through green restructuring,”4New Growth, Proud History: The Norwegian Government's Ocean Strategy.calling for the development of marine innovation industries to achieve sustainable use of oceans. For example, the Swedish government states in its maritime strategy document: “Marine-based industries need to be founded on economic, social and environmental sustainability.”5Government Offices of Sweden, Strategy for Sweden's Global Development Cooperation in the Areas of Environmental Sustainability, Sustainable Climate and Oceans, and Sustainable Use of Natural Resources 2018-2022, June 8, 2018.The Norwegian government emphasizes: “The future growth of marine economy requires us to seek resources in a sustainable manner, and requires us to treat oceans as a whole.”6Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Place of the Oceans in Norway's Foreign and Development Policy, March 28, 2017.

Third, both sides argue for international cooperation in ocean governance. As the Vision puts it, strengthening maritime cooperation “conforms with the prevailing trend of development, openness and cooperation.” The Vision explicitly states that “China encourages countries along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road to align their strategies, further promote all-around and pragmatic cooperation, and to jointly build unobstructed, safe and efficient maritime transport channels. Together, we will build platforms for maritime cooperation and develop the Blue Partnership.” China calls for building a maritime community with a shared future so as to join hands with the rest of the world to address global ocean governance issues.7“President Xi’s Vision of a Maritime Community with a Shared Future Finds an Echo,” People.com.cn, June 9, 2019, http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2019/0609/c1002-31126114.html.The Nordic countries have always advocated regional and global multilateral cooperation in the marine sector. Committed to building a multilateral cooperation platform on Arctic issues, the five Nordic countries are actively seeking the inclusion of additional stakeholders. For example, Iceland hosts the Arctic Circle and Norway the Arctic Frontier platform. These international forums all welcome global Arctic cooperation, including the participation of Asian countries.

Interest motivation: great demands for maritime cooperation

The pursuit of interests is the strongest driving force for cooperation. The common interests and realistic needs of the Nordic countries make them destined to become China's natural partner in building a blue economic passage.

For China, two realistic demands would be fulfilled if it and the Nordic countries would jointly build a blue economic passage leading up to Europe via the Arctic Ocean. One is the practical necessity for a marine transportation route, and the other is the need for cooperation in the field of marine scientific and technological innovation. First of all, the foreign trade volume of China, the world's largest trading country, accounts for about 10% of the world's total. Sea routes are an imperative factor in China's foreign trade and economic development. It is estimated that if the Arctic route is used to connect Northern Europe with China, South Korea and Japan, the sailing distance will be shortened by about 40% compared with the route through the Suez Canal, while fuel consumption will also be reduced by about 20%. An authoritative study has concluded that “if the Arctic route is fully operational to replace the traditional route, China can save US$53.3 billion to $127.4 billion in international trade shipping costs per year.”8Zhang Xia, et al., “The Economic Estimate of Arctic Sea Routes and Its Strategic Significance for the Development of Chinese Economy,” China Soft Science, No.2, 2009, p.35.Moreover, although the Arctic route may face severe natural conditions such as icebergs, ice blocks and extreme cold, it is still a comparatively safe route because there are no human security threats such as piracy and terrorism. In addition, China faces the challenge of becoming an ocean power through technological innovation. Its development of oceans needs to shift from an extensive mode to a technology- and innovationdriven sustainable mode, seeking a more effective and integrated use of marine resources. The Nordic countries are world leaders in marine technological innovation, especially in the areas of marine renewable energy, green ship technology, sustainable marine management, seabed mineral extraction, blue bio-economy, and carbon dioxide capture. If China and the Nordic countries could unite in building a blue economic passage, it would boost China's ability to keep up with the world's top marine technology innovation and support both sides in complementing each other's advantages.

For Northern Europe, cooperation with China to build a blue economic passage would also fulfill practical material needs. The passage can open up the Chinese market to bring more economic benefits. It would be also conducive to Arctic governance. First, the Nordic countries, as export-oriented economies, are faced with an immediate demand to enlarge external markets and receive more international investment. China on the other hand has been persistent in promoting economic globalization and deepening its reform and opening-up, which provides ample direct market opportunities for Nordic enterprises. According to the Nordic Council's statistics, China ranks first as a source for Nordic imports, and second as a destination for Nordic exports among non-European states. In 2018, China's trade with the Nordic countries reached US$43.19 billion, with the latter enjoying a surplus. By the end of 2018, the Nordic countries had made a total of 3,770 investments in China, amounting to US$11.34 billion; China had invested US$10.38 billion in the Nordic countries.9“Ambassador Gui Congyou Speaks at Nordic China Smart City Conference,” Chinese Embassy in Sweden, March 26, 2019, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/cese/chn/zrgxs/jmhz/t1648522.htm.Second, with the rising potential of natural resources exploration and utilization in the Arctic Ocean, the Nordic region faces impediments such as insufficient funds for maritime infrastructure construction, increased investment demand and high development costs. According to estimate by the Guggenheim Partners, infrastructure construction in the Arctic will requires about US$1 trillion of investment over the next 15 years.10Heidar Gudjonsson and Egill Thor Nielsson, “China’s Belt and Road: Where Does the Arctic Angle Stand?” The Diplomat, September 22, 2017, https://thediplomat.com/2017/09/chinas-belt-and-road-wheredoes-the-arctic-angle-stand.Therefore, the Nordic countries such as Finland, Norway and Iceland are very active in striving for the acquisition of investment by external countries into the region. With its robust economic strength, China can provide the Nordic countries with the public goods necessary for their regional development.

Policy foundation: Nordic support for Chinese participation in Arctic affairs

The Nordic countries support China's participation in Arctic governance, which lays the policy foundation for jointly building the blue economic passage. The construction of the passage linking Europe via the Arctic Ocean would involve the construction of the Arctic waterway and infrastructure, the exploration and utilization of Arctic Ocean resources, and Arctic environmental protection programs, which are also key components of Arctic governance. Currently, eight Arctic countries are the primary actors in Arctic affairs. In contrast with the United States and Canada, which resist external countries' involvement in Arctic affairs, the Nordic countries have rather inclusive attitudes. The intensifying impact of climate change is intertwined with scientific research, resource utilization, environmental protection, geopolitics and other issues in the Arctic. These considerable challenges and difficulties would be too overwhelming for the Nordic countries to tackle on their own, given their relatively limited comprehensive national strengths. Therefore, the Nordic countries are in favor of a solution based on cooperation at the interregional level and on a global scale. Moreover, with more external countries becoming involved, the Nordic countries would be better able to balance the dominance of the United States, Russia and other big players in the Arctic. China's constructive participation in Arctic affairs has played a positive role in regional governance, and is in line with the expectations of the Nordic countries. China has advocated the joint construction of the Ice Silk Road, and this proposal has received positive responses from countries such as Iceland, Finland and Norway. According to Finnish President Sauli Ninisto, the Ice Silk Road “is not only a plan for more roads, railways and shipping routes, but also a vision for promoting understanding among different peoples.”11“China’s Arctic Policy in Line with International Law: Finnish President,” Xinhua, March 7, 2018.The Icelandic government has expressed strong interest in the Ice Silk Road, and supports this initiative to enhance connectivity between Europe and Asia.12Gudlaugur Thor Thordarsson, “Iceland-China Relations Will Continue to Strengthen,” China Daily, September 6, 2018.Northern Europe also has expectations for deepening multilateral cooperation with China. In February 2016, the Nordic Council of Ministers made a decision to “explore opportunities for greater Nordic sub-regional cooperation with China,” and also planned to conduct a two-year study on “how expanded cooperation with China can be incorporated within its scope of activities.”13“Nordic Prime Ministers: The Nordic Region to Be the Most Integrated in the World,” Norden, September 28, 2016.China and Northern Europe have decided to focus their future cooperation on key areas such as entrepreneurship and business, sustainable development, research and education, cultural exchanges and social welfare.14“Vice Foreign Minister Wang Chao and Secretary General Dagfinn Høybråten of the Nordic Council of Ministers Hold Consultation on China-Nordic Cooperation,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, May 25, 2017.

Practical basis: positive cooperation experience from both sides

China and Northern Europe have carried out extensive and effective cooperation in various fields involving the Arctic and the Arctic Ocean, thus gaining the essential experience for building a blue economic passage. First, the two sides have signed bilateral agreements to plan and standardize their cooperation. For example, as early as 2012, China and Iceland signed the Framework Agreement on Arctic Cooperation and the Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in the Field of Marine and Polar Science and Technology. In 2014 China and Denmark signed the Memorandum of Understanding on Green Maritime Technology and the Shipbuilding Industry to promote win-win efforts of the two countries in the fields of green maritime technology, shipbuilding and ship intelligence. The Joint Work Plan for Promoting Future-oriented New-type Cooperative Partnership between China and Finland (2019-2023), jointly formulated by the two countries, is concerned with Arctic scientific collaboration, technological innovation and cooperative efforts in sustainable development of the Arctic. Second, the two sides have jointly built offshore infrastructure and Arctic research bases to enhance mutually beneficial cooperation. For example, the Norway Offshore Fish Farm, built by China's Wuchang Shipbuilding Industry Group, is the world's largest semi-submersible intelligent offshore fish farm. Finland's Aker Arctic Technology Inc was involved in designing China's polar research icebreaker. The Finnish technology giant Wartsila provides main engines, exhaust gas cleaning equipment and power solutions for China's scientific research vessels. In 2014, China launched its first Arctic scientific research station in Ny-Alesund, Norway, setting a milestone in the continued deepening of Sino-Norwegian Arctic cooperation. In 2018, the Arctic scientific research station jointly established by China and Iceland was officially inaugurated, becoming a comprehensive research base in the fields of aurora observation, meteorological prediction, glacial monitoring, and remote sensing. Third, the two sides have broadened their cooperation in both traditional and emerging marine industries. For example, CNOOC collaborates with companies in Norway and Iceland to conduct joint fossil fuel exploration. The trade volume of seafood between China and Norway is rising. China and Denmark have jointly built coastal wind farms. China and Iceland are working together to develop and utilize geothermal energy. China and Sweden cooperate in the green economy and smart city projects, and a number of Chinese cities have signed cooperation agreements with Swedish eco-city Hammarby. Fourth, scientific research think tanks, forums, etc., have been formed to discuss, communicate and coordinate Arctic policies. For example, research institutes from China and the Nordic countries have jointly established the China-Nordic Arctic Research Center. China and Iceland jointly organized the Arctic Circle China Forum. The Sino-Swedish Innovation & Entrepreneurship Forum, the China-Sweden Science, Technology and Innovation Cooperation Matchmaking Meeting, and other forms of exchange and cooperation programs will synergize China's innovation-driven development strategy and Sweden's innovation partnership programs.15Zhang Weipeng and Yu Xiaofeng, “Institutional Approaches to Deepening China-Nordic Sub-Regional Cooperation,” China International Studies, No.3, 2019, pp.148-165.

International trend: the blue economic passage's strong momentum

At present, the international community is increasingly aware that the development and governance of the Arctic require the participation of countries inside and outside the Arctic region. In 2018, the Arctic Economic Council approved a new strategic plan for the years 2019-2021. The new strategy underlines its aim to link the Arctic value chains even closer to the global value chains.16Arctic Economic Council Secretariat's Annual Report 2018, May 2019, https://arcticeconomiccouncil.com/the-aec-in-2018/.This provides new vision and impetus for economic cooperation across the Pan-Arctic region. In the face of new challenges and obstacles in Arctic governance, Arctic countries are actively seeking support from non-regional countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea. Due to Western sanctions since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, there is a growing urgency for Russia to develop the Arctic. In dealing with issues such as capital and technology shortages, Russia has become more pragmatic about the inclusion of external countries in developing the Arctic, and regarded China as a major partner for Arctic cooperation. China and Russia have carried out substantial cooperation in the utilization of the Northern Sea Route, construction of Arctic infrastructure, exploration of energy, Arctic scientific research and ecological protection, with remarkable results achieved.17Qian Zongqi, Russia's Arctic Strategy and the Ice Silk Road, Current Affairs Press, 2018, pp.193-202.As observers of the Arctic Council, China, Japan, and South Korea pay close attention to and actively participate in international cooperation concerning business, shipping and scientific research in the Arctic region. In 2015, the Japanese government unveiled its Arctic policy, stressing its scientific and technological advantages and its commitments to environmental protection and international cooperation. This policy indicates Japan's interest in the development of Arctic routes and its desire to participate in the formulation of Arctic rules through relevant international forums.18The Headquarters for Ocean Policy, Japan's Arctic Policy, October 16, 2015, http://library.arcticportal.org/1883.South Korea also attaches great importance to international cooperation on Arctic research.19South Korea has established a research center for Arctic sea routes to conduct relevant training and joint research with Russia and Japan. See Ye Yanhua, “International Cooperation for East Asian Countries to Participate in Arctic Affairs,” Northeast Asia Forum, No.6, 2018, pp.92-104.South Korea's 2015 master plan for Arctic policy proposes that it should become a “polar leading country for the sustainable development of the Arctic” by expanding the foundations for international cooperation, widening the scope of Arctic research, and building an Arctic business platform.20Han Lixin, Cai Shuang and Zhu Ke, “An Analysis of the Latest Arctic Policies of China, Japan and South Korea,” Journal of Ocean University of China (Social Sciences), No.3, 2019, pp.58-67.All of the above indicates that international cooperation in the Arctic has become a major development trend, creating a favorable atmosphere and a strong impetus for the joint construction of the blue economic passage between China and the Nordic countries.

Challenges of Jointly Building the Blue Economic Passage

The existing cooperation between China and the Nordic countries in the Arctic and Nordic regions focuses largely on areas of relatively lower sensitivity, such as economy and trade, investment and scientific research. This situation conforms to the practical demands of both sides at the current stage, and it also lays a solid foundation for jointly building the blue economic passage. However, competition between major powers in the Arctic region is becoming increasingly intense. Influenced by the growing complexity of the geopolitical environment, and due to differences in identities and interest preferences of the Nordic countries, there are uncertainties about to what degree the Nordic countries would be influenced by geopolitical changes and what positions these countries would take. This has posed certain challenges to China in promoting cooperation with the Nordic countries to jointly build the blue economic passage.

Different values and lack of mutual trust restricting depth of cooperation

On the whole, the relationship between China and the Nordic countries has developed positively. For example, China has established a comprehensive strategic partnership with Denmark, a future-oriented new-type cooperative partnership with Finland, and signed a free trade agreement with Iceland. However, there is no denying that China and the Nordic countries are confronted with a number of obstacles before any in-depth cooperation can be accomplished. Among these obstacles are differences in values. The Nordic countries and China have different views on human rights and issues related to “universal values,” such as democracy and freedom. The most typical example is how the Norwegian government's inappropriate handling of the Nobel Peace Prize once triggered a crisis in its bilateral relations with China. The Nordic countries want to deepen their economic and trade ties with China, but on the other hand they are worried that China will “erode” their much-admired freedom principle, which puts a particular set of human rights at its core.21Institute for Security and Development Policy, “Sino-Nordic Relations: Opportunities and the Way Ahead,” November 2016, http://isdp.eu/publication/sino-nordic-relations-opportunities-way-ahead.Another factor is the lack of mutual trust in political matters. As the two sides have very different political systems and social and cultural environments, there has always been a potential risk that their dialogues might be negatively affected by politically charged issues. In recent years, with the deepening interactions between the two sides and the growing power of China, the attitudes of the Nordic countries toward China have become increasingly pragmatic. However, the “China threat” rhetoric has often appeared in the Nordic region, hindering mutual cooperation. Moreover, due to different development stages, especially concerning the strict requirements by the Nordic countries in terms of technical standards, norms and environmental protection, a relatively high threshold has been set for joint construction. The Nordic countries have issued comprehensive regulations on environmental protection and strict enforcement procedures. For example, Sweden has its special Environmental Code, and Denmark has issued the Act on the Promotion of Savings in Energy Consumption and the Climate Change Act. This means that Chinese enterprises participating in the construction of the blue economic passage in this region have to make large upfront investment and undertake certain risks.

Different identities and interests making policy coordination difficult

Several Finnish scholars have argued that the Nordic countries as a whole share the dual feature of “diversity in unity” and “unity in diversity.”22Lassi Heininen and Yang Jian, Sino-Nordic Arctic Cooperation: Objectives and Approaches, Current Affairs Press, 2019, Chapter One.Despite their strong homogeneity, the five Nordic countries are also experiencing apparent heterogeneity, especially in terms of international affiliation. Denmark, Finland and Sweden are members of the European Union, while Norway and Iceland are not; Denmark, Norway and Iceland are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, while Sweden and Finland are not. Because of their varying identities, the five Nordic countries have diverse positions in international affairs, and they also have different geopolitical tendencies and interest preferences when developing relations with China. The policies they adopt are pro-American, pro-EU, or relatively independent. A case in point is Arctic governance, which involves core interests of the Nordic countries and would also be a central component of the China-Nordic Blue Economic Passage. Although the Nordic countries generally welcome China's participation in Arctic governance, their individual policy tendencies are notably different. Norway and Iceland enjoy significant economic benefits in the Arctic region, and their positions are leaning toward pragmatism; Finland is also becoming more pragmatic and is seeking additional international cooperation; Sweden insists on its own set of rules in Arctic affairs and is relatively detached in developing and utilizing the Arctic region; Denmark is more sensitive to Arctic security issues.23Institute for Security and Development Policy, “Sino-Nordic Relations: Opportunities and the Way Ahead.”Thus, the diverse interest preferences of the Nordic countries make it more complex to coordinate policies. Moreover, different countries have different but overlapping areas for cooperation with China in the Arctic, and their similar market demands make it possible for them to compete with each other in cooperation with China. Specifically, Denmark focuses on the marine renewable resources industry and shipbuilding; Iceland, on fishery and shipping; Finland, on shipping and shipbuilding; and Norway, on energy industry and seafood export. In addition, China and the Nordic countries have not yet established a formal sub-regional cooperation mechanism, and because the Nordic countries have no tradition of coordination in diplomacy, it is not easy for them to harmonize their policies toward China at the subregional level.

US-Russia-Europe geopolitical competition causing disruptions

As the development of the Arctic is accelerating, geopolitical competition among the United States, Russia and Europe in the region has intensified, and the internal divergences among the Arctic countries have become more and more distinct.24Due to the United States’ opposition, the 11th ministerial meeting of the Arctic Council held in early May 2019 failed to issue a joint declaration, which is the first time in the Arctic Council’s 23-year history that the ministerial meeting ended without an agreed document.Such circumstances are not conducive to the participation of external countries in Arctic affairs, but instead amplify the geopolitical risks of cooperation between China and the Nordic countries. Although the extensive cooperation between China and Russia in the Arctic region has laid the foundation for China to participate in Arctic governance, it also means that the joint construction between China and the Nordic countries in this region will inevitably encounter political interference. For example, military deployment by the US, Russia and European countries in the Arctic region may trigger conflicts among the parties concerned, while economic sanctions imposed by the US and other Western countries against Russia may cause trade disputes. However, although the China-Nordic joint construction may be influenced by geopolitics, there should be a clear understanding of the respective roles of the EU and the US if these constraints are examined in depth.

The EU welcomes the peaceful rise of emerging countries under the premise of abiding by international rules. It does not regard the largescale rise of emerging countries such as China as a security threat, but as a challenge to its values system.25Ole Waever, “A Post-Western Europe: Strange Identities in a Less Liberal World Order,” Ethics and International Affairs, No.1, 2018, pp.75-88.Based on this, the EU holds a positive attitude toward economic cooperation, but has severe doubts about the establishment of a formal sub-regional cooperation mechanism between China and EU member states, since it believes that this is not favorable to EU integration. To a “5+1” dialogue platform between China and the Nordic countries proposed by some scholars, the EU clearly expressed its opposition and considered that the development of such a sub-regional group may cause division within the EU.26Bjørnar Sverdrup-Thygeson and Jerker Hellström, “Introduction: Quintet Out of Tune? China’s Bilateral Relations with the Nordic States,” in Bjørnar Sverdrup-Thygeson, Dragon in the North: The Nordic Countries' Relations with China, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, 2016.Moreover, as the EU is actively seeking to expand its influence on Arctic affairs and positioning itself as a provider of public goods in the Arctic region, the EU is worried that China will become its regional competitor. Therefore, the EU holds a largely negative attitude toward sub-regional cooperation between China and the Nordic countries. However, such adverse factors should not be exaggerated, since China and Europe have common interests, especially in building the “blue partnership.” In 2018, China and the EU signed the Declaration on the Establishment of a Blue Partnership for the Oceans: Towards Better Ocean Governance, Sustainable Fisheries and a Thriving Maritime Economy, which can to some extent help China and Nordic countries join hands in building the blue economic passage.

The US is highly alarmed by China's increasing geopolitical influence in the Arctic region. It has always viewed the Ice Silk Road from a geostrategic perspective, alert and anxious about China's cooperation with Russia and the Nordic countries in building the blue economic passage. The US is concerned that the Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation is aimed at redistributing global power by weakening the influence of the US and NATO in the region.27Todd Royal, “How China and Russia are Teaming up to Degrade US Influence in South America,” The National Interest, December 4, 2017.The US academic and political circles are also quite dissatisfied with China's activities in the Arctic region, slandering China as intending to plunder the Arctic fishery resources and prepare for enhancing its Arctic presence, and regarding China's investment in the Arctic as an obstacle to local environmental protection. The rhetoric of “China threat” in the Arctic region is being played up.28Mark Rosen and David Slayton, “China Is Seizing the Geopolitical Opportunities of the Melting Arctic,” The Hill, October 30, 2017; “Pompeo Picks Fault with Chinese and Russian Activities in the Arctic, Vows to Strengthen US Presence,” May 7, 2019, http://m.gmw.cn/2019-05/07/content_1300353642.htm.At the same time, the US often exerts pressure on the Nordic countries and prevents their relevant cooperation with China in the Arctic region. The NATO members of the Nordic countries are obviously influenced by the US. On many occasions the presence of a US “black hand” can be felt. For example, due to US interference, Norway refused to provide China with a complete chain of advanced marine technologies, and a Chinese enterprise withdrew its bid to build an airport in Greenland.

Approaches to Jointly Building the Blue Economic Passage

Given today's shifting international landscape, the Arctic region can hardly avoid the influence of geopolitical competition. Nevertheless, it has also accumulated advanced governance concepts and sustainable development practices, thus demonstrating that international cooperation in Arctic affairs has a whole range of possibilities. China and the Nordic countries should jointly explore a new mode of mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation in building the blue economic passage. The new mode requires thinking in an innovative manner, and relies, to a greater extent, on practically tackling challenges and jointly seeking solutions.

Consolidating bilateral cooperation in the blue economy

Economic cooperation is the strongest driving force for bilateral ties between China and the Nordic countries. Emphasis can be placed on promoting bilateral cooperation in marine scientific and technological innovation and green marine industries, and on expanding common interests by providing public goods such as funds and infrastructure, thus reducing misgivings of the Nordic countries about China.

In the field of traditional marine industries such as shipping, shipbuilding and marine infrastructure construction, the cooperation between China and the Nordic countries has a substantial foundation. In the future, China can promote investment and project cooperation with the Nordic countries in exploration of emerging marine energy, marine environmental protection technology, and marine infrastructure construction. The first approach is to participate in Arctic infrastructure construction and scientific and technological innovation projects by expanding investment. The marine industry is capital-intensive, whose development heavily relies on access to investment. At present, China's investment in the Nordic countries accounts for only about 8% of its total investment in Europe, which means that China's investment in the Nordic countries still has much room for improvement and many additional opportunities. For example, the Arctic Corridor project, proposed by Finland, Norway and other countries and involving the construction of railways connecting the Nordic Arctic and the European continent, can become a starting point for the China and the Nordic countries to jointly build the blue economic passage in the future. Both Finland and Norway, the leading countries of the project, have made it clear that they welcome Chinese investment, and that the synergy of the Arctic Corridor with the Belt and Road Initiative is conducive to expanding China-Europe connectivity. In addition, Finland's submarine tunnel project connecting Helsinki and Tallinn, which is still in the stage of feasibility study, Iceland's plan to construct an Arctic shipping port, and Finland's trans-Arctic submarine optical fiber cable project are also open to Chinese investment. By engaging in cooperation in the above-mentioned large-scale projects, China can act as a market-oriented participant, enhance exchanges through wide consultation and joint construction, and fully respect the Nordic countries' dominant roles in these projects, thus reducing their worries about the “China threat.” The second approach is to cooperate in emerging marine industries that both sides are committed to promoting, in order to expand their common interests. In the future one of the major challenges of ocean governance will be to balance the two needs of enhancing marine productivity and strengthening marine environmental protection. In the process of building the blue economic passage, China and the Nordic countries can focus on expanding cooperation in emerging industries such as clean energy, ocean carbon sink technology and green shipbuilding. The Nordic countries have various advantages in the marine industry. For example, Iceland has outstanding knowledge in seafood fishing, Finland is at the forefront in the design and manufacturing of icebreakers, and Denmark has its own unique strengths in green energy. China can carry out investment cooperation in different fields corresponding to various advantages and needs of the Nordic countries.

Focusing on Arctic scientific research

At the sub-regional level, efforts should be made to promote cooperation in scientific research, education, culture and other fields concerning the Arctic, and to strengthen ties and their spillover effects in areas with high degree of consensus, so as to reduce the uncertainties caused by differences among the Nordic countries.

The current forms of cooperation at the sub-regional level between China and the Nordic countries mainly focus on culture, education and scientific research, whereas no formal cooperation mechanism has yet been established in other fields. In view of this, both sides can prioritize enhancing cooperation in the above-mentioned fields to build knowledge and institutional platforms for Arctic governance cooperation, while gradually expanding cooperation to other fields through the spillover of institutional benefits. For example, the China-Nordic Arctic Research Center can become an exemplary soft mechanism model for the Sino-Nordic sub-regional cooperation to be utilized, replicated and expanded. Second, through multilateral consultations and dialogues, both sides can strengthen cooperation at the sub-regional level in areas with high degree of consensus, such as Arctic environmental protection, climate change and green development, and gradually deepen cooperation in various formats such as think tank exchanges, scientific research collaboration and policy communication. China can learn from the institutional experience of the Nordic countries in scientific research, climate change and environmental protection, while the Nordic countries can gain access to more capital, markets, infrastructure and other public goods through cooperation. Both sides can also carry out more scientific research cooperation in the protection of aboriginal cultures and the Arctic natural ecosystem, which are of common concern to the Nordic countries. In particular, they can promote the combination of science and technology and protection of aboriginal cultures and expand the space for cooperation in the “green Arctic.” Finally, both sides can use platforms such as the Arctic Circle and the Arctic Frontiers to advance vital consultation and cooperation mechanisms. They can also host ocean days, culture weeks and forums to discuss issues related to the construction of the blue economic passage, in order to enhance political mutual trust and gradually achieve more effective policy coordination and synergy.

Strengthening coordination with the EU through provision of public goods

At the regional level, attention can be paid to promoting cooperation with the EU and relevant EU members in the fields of scientific research, environmental protection, channel safety and other public services in the Nordic and Arctic regions. Policy coordination would help alleviate the EU's strategic concerns about cooperation between China and the Nordic countries.

Scientific research, environmental protection and channel safety are important aspects of China's participation in Arctic governance. The EU also regards high-level issues, such as environmental protection, infrastructure construction and aboriginal rights, as part of its responsibilities in the Arctic.29The European Commission and the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Developing a European Union Policy towards the Arctic Region: Progress since 2008 and Next Steps, June 20, 2012, p.6.China and the EU have obvious common interests in the abovementioned areas, which are therefore primary venues to carry out winwin cooperation and jointly provide necessary public goods for the Nordic region. First, China and the EU can push for a “green Arctic.” The EU's Summary Report of the Arctic Stakeholder Forum Consultation, released in 2017, lists areas of investment which are beneficial to the development of the Arctic region, including digital infrastructure construction, renewable energy production, bio-economy, and marine tourism.30Directorate-General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (European Commission), Summary Report of the Arctic Stakeholder Forum Consultation to Identify Key Investment Priorities in the Arctic and Ways to Better Streamline Future EU Funding Programs for the Region, December 21, 2017.The abovementioned areas show a particular affinity with the concepts of “pursuing a path of green development” and “a path of innovative growth,” which were proposed in China's initiative to build the blue economic passage. China and the EU can cooperate at the regional level in areas such as Arctic renewable energy and biodiversity conservation. Second, China and the EU can deepen cooperation on the core issues of the Nordic countries' concerns, such as channel safety, and jointly provide public goods for maritime safety. Channel safety is an important component in building the blue economic passage. All of the Nordic countries attach great importance to strengthening channel safety, and the EU also regards enhancing the monitoring capability of the Arctic region as an important part of its Arctic policy. The EU's Galileo Global Navigation Satellite System can be applied to ship navigation and iceberg positioning in the Arctic waters, and its high-resolution seafloor mapping data platform, which is under construction, also covers parts of the Arctic waters. In view of this, China can further strengthen cooperation with the EU and the Nordic countries in the fields of Arctic meteorological monitoring, maritime rescue, maritime information and data sharing, and provide more public goods for maritime safety. For example, China may propose sharing the monitoring data of the aurora observatory jointly built with Iceland, and participate in the observation plan initiated by the Pacific Arctic Group to deepen cooperation with the EU and the Nordic countries in Arctic scientific research. In addition, China can also enhance policy communication and coordination with the EU and its member states, addressing the Nordic countries' core concerns, such as climate change, so as to reduce the uncertainties and risks of cooperation.

Conclusion

Joining hands with the Nordic countries to build the blue economic passage leading up to Europe via the Arctic Ocean is an important component of China's Belt and Road Initiative, and conforms to the long-term interests of all parties. There are both opportunities and challenges ahead for China and the Nordic countries to jointly build the blue economic passage. In the future, on the basis of effective interaction, it is necessary to strengthen management of opportunities, divergences and expectations. Concrete efforts should be made to coordinate bilateral and multilateral policies and rules, and establish mechanisms and platforms, so as to effectively promote joint construction and cooperation. Against the background of profound changes in the international situation, China has been deepening its cooperation with the Nordic countries in the fields of marine economy, Arctic governance, environmental protection and innovative development, jointly advancing the sustainable utilization and connectivity of the oceans, and addressing common global climate and environmental challenges, all of which would help build a maritime community with a shared future and create a new international order oriented toward development and characterized by greater inclusiveness and equality.