China-CELAC Forum: InjectingImpetus to China-LAC Cooperation

Wаng Huizhi

China and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States(CELAC) established the China-CELAC Forum in 2014. Since then,it has been operating smoothly and made tangible progress. The Forum has not only enhanced the collective cooperation between China and Latin America and the Carribean (LAC), but also helped make bilateral relations more balanced.Despite some problems and challenges that have arisen in the building of the China-CELAC Forum, given that collective cooperation meets the actual needs of China and LAC countries and accords with continuous deepening of China-LAC cooperation, the development of the Forum may slow down but will not be reversed.

Remarkable Outcomes

Early at the first ministerial meeting in 2015, a three-layered cooperation mechanism was established, comprising the ministerial meeting, the dialogue of foreign ministers of China and the quartet1The quartet includes the former, current and incoming rotating presidency of CELAC and the rotating presidency of the Caribbean Community.of CELAC, and the meeting of national coordinators.China has also set up a follow-up committee to coordinate relevant Chinese institutions. Over the past three years, the above consultation and cooperation mechanisms have worked very well. The national coordinators' meeting is held once a year.2Zhao Вentang, “Promoting the Development of Sino-Latin American Relations at a Higher Level,”Jоurnаl оf Lаtin Аmеriсаn Studiеs, No.1, 2018, p.5.The foreign ministers of China and the quartet of CELAC have met three times. The ministerial meeting has been conducted twice, with a consensus that the third meeting will be held in 2021 in China. In addition, under the framework of the Forum, more than ten sub-forums have been established covering a wide range of fields, including political parties, law, youth, think tanks, infrastructure, innovation in science and technology, entrepreneurs, agriculture, non-governmental and local friendship. All these platforms are operating well, and in 2017 alone, the third China-LAC Think Tank Forum, the third China-LAC Infrastructure Cooperation Forum, the fourth China-LAC Young Political Leaders' Forum and the 11th China-LAC Business Summit were successfully held. Up to November this year, the second China-LAC Political Parties Forum, the fourth China-LAC Infrastructure Cooperation Forum, the fifth China-LAC Young Political Leaders' Forum, and the 12th China-LAC Business Summit have been held.3“12th China-LAC Вusiness Summit Opens with Shared Concern,” China-CELAC Forum, November 15, 2018, http://www.chinacelacforum.org/eng/zgtlmjlbgjgх_1/t1613364.htm.The above mechanisms of the China-CELAC Forum, which run smoothly, have become a major channel for bilateral cooperation in various fields, thus providing a strong institutional guarantee for the implementation of bilateral political consensus and cooperation plan.

The China-CELAC Forum has become an important platform for building consensus and engaging in wide-ranging cooperation. The potential for cooperation between the two sides has been sufficiently released, cooperation projects in multiple fields rapidly promoted, and as a result the level of collective cooperation continuously uplifted. The first ministerial meeting in 2015 adopted the China-Latin American and Caribbean Countries Cooperation Plan (2015-2019), which defined 13 key areas of cooperation, including politics, economy, infrastructure and transportation, energy resources and agriculture, and made detailed provisions for the specific implementation of the plan. With joint efforts,the cooperation plan has been carried out in an orderly way with fruitful outcomes. The sub-forums are also operating well. The “Future Bridge”Training Program for 1,000 Chinese and Latin American Youth Leaders, the Science and Technology Partnership and the China-LAC Young Scientists Exchange Program have been launched and institutionalized. The 2016 China-Latin America Year of Cultural Exchange, involving nearly 30 Latin American and Caribbean countries, was the largest annual cultural gala event jointly hosted by China and LAC countries since the founding of the People's Republic of China. Diversified cultural exchange activities such as performances, exhibitions, forums and lectures, film exhibitions, food and book festivals, translation of classic works, and tourism promotion have tremendously enhanced China-LAC friendship4“2016 China-Latin America Year of Cultural Eхchange,” State Council of the People's Republic of China, March 25, 2016, http://www.gov.cn/хinwen/2016-03/25/content_5058152.htm.and been well received. The transformation and upgrade of economic and trade cooperation has moved forward steadily. More than $17 billion of China's $35-billion financing package for the LAC region has been allocated and the $30-billion special fund for China-Latin America Production Capacity Cooperation has also been launched. At the second ministerial meeting in early 2018, three documents — the Declaration of Santiago, the Joint Action Plan of China-LAC Cooperation (Priority Areas) (2019-2021) and a special statement on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)— were issued, which makes arrangements for China-LAC cooperation under the new situation and provides guarantee for the steady progress of future collective cooperation. Driven by the China-CELAC Forum, new platforms for collective cooperation have emerged.In 2016, the China-LAC Industrial Park was set up in Tangshan, Hebei Province. In 2017, the China-Latin American International Expo opened in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province. The collective cooperation between China and LAC countries is becoming more and more important in their all-round relations. The second China Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean clearly states that promoting complementary development of collective and bilateral cooperation is the strategic path for developing China-LAC relations.

The closer relationship forged between China and LAC countries since the 21st century is featured by the strong growth of bilateral economic and trade relations, but cooperation in other fields is relatively backward. The release of China's first Policy Paper on LAC in 2008 marked the transition of their relations from a spontaneous stage to a conscious stage. The China-CELAC Forum is the outcome yielded by bilateral initiatives and proactive actions in the new situation, and it aims to promote a comprehensive and cooperative partnership featuring equality, mutual benefits and common development, and create a balanced, all-round cooperation network between China and the LAC countries. With the gradual implementation of various plans, bilateral cooperation in economy and trade, cultural exchanges and other fields has been rapidly advancing with remarkable outcomes. Given the unsustainability of the traditional pattern of exchanging manufactured goods for raw materials and the necessity to transform and upgrade bilateral economic and trade relations, the China-LAC Cooperation Plan (2015-2019) sets the goal of increasing trade between the two sides to $500 billion, and raising the stock of reciprocal investment to at least $250 billion in ten years. It also gives guidance on their future cooperation:utilizing trade, investment and financial cooperation as driving forces, and identifying energy and resources, infrastructure construction, agriculture,manufacturing, scientific and technological innovation and information technology as cooperation priorities.5“China's Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean,” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs,November 24, 2016, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zххх_662805/t1418254.shtml.Under its guidance, the potential for bilateral economic and trade cooperation has been constantly tapped. The cooperation scope has become wider and the cooperation structure more balanced with striking upgrading effects. People-to-people exchanges, longdelayed compared to economic and trade relations, have also become an important driver for the development of China-LAC relations. Over 1,000 leaders of political parties from LAC countries have visited China, 4,000-plus professionals have been to China for training or further education, and projects such as China-LAC joint laboratories, demonstration farms and press centers have come to fruition.6“Join Hands across the Ocean in a New Era”, speech by Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the opening ceremony of the second ministerial meeting of China-CELAC Forum, Xinhuа, January 23, 2018, http://www.хinhuanet.com/2018-01/23/c_1122303902.htm.China and LAC countries have worked together to promote the establishment and development of Confucius Institutes and Confucius classes in LAC countries and achieved good results.Now the cultural exchanges are richer in content with more diversified forms,which helps steadily deepen mutual understanding between the peoples of China and LAC countries. Thus the current China-LAC relations are being promoted by multiple links, rather than driven solely by economic and trade ties. A new relationship between China and LAC is gradually taking shape with five salient features, namely sincerity and mutual trust in the political field, win-win cooperation on the economic front, mutual learning through cultural exchanges, close coordination in international affairs, as well as mutual reinforcement of China's cooperation with the region as a whole and its bilateral relations with individual countries in the region.

Certain Problems

The second ministerial meeting of the Forum of China and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) was held in Santiago, Chile on January 22, under the theme "CELAC-China: working for more development, innovation and cooperation for our peoples.”

There are obvious differences among LAC countries in their governance concepts and propositions for development. Conflicts of interest caused by historical problems and territorial disputes still exist. All these internal contradictions have greatly hampered further development of CELAC.Under such circumstances, although the China-CELAC Forum is in existence, the desire of CELAC member states for the Forum's development and their ability to promote it are, to a certain extent, restrained by their diversified appeals for overall cooperation with China and their lack of coordination. In recent years, the political changes in many LAC countries have also resulted in the weakened efforts of CELAC members to build up the Forum. Since 2015, great changes have taken place in Latin America's political landscape: in Argentina the right wing came to power; in Venezuela,the right wing won a resounding victory in the parliamentary election; in Brazil, the left-wing President Dilma Rousseff was impeached and ousted from office, and the right-wing Vice President Michel Temer took over the presidency. In the fast-changing situation that left-wingers are in retreat while right-wingers are forging ahead, left-wing countries, most notably Venezuela, are busy coping with political and economic crises at home,and their support for regional integration organizations such as CELAC has fallen significantly. Although right-wingers have shown a strong desire to regain power, yet they are not interested in the left-inclined CELAC;instead, they mainly focus on sub-regional mechanisms such as the Southern Common Market and the Pacific Alliance, and they have not shown any desire to be responsible for the development of CELAC. In 2017, only half of the member states attended the fifth CELAC summit, which was unprecedented in the history of CELAC and fully exposed the mechanism's insufficient cohesion and declining appeal. The contribution of CELAC to the China-CELAC Forum has also reduced. In 2018, many LAC countries,including Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, have held presidential elections, and left-wing and right-wing forces are once again engaged in a fierce contest.Although the trend of “left-wingers in retreat while right-wingers forging ahead” seems to have eased, CELAC will probably face another round of interests redistribution and readjustment of demands. The future of CELAC is still uncertain. In this context, the status of the China-CELAC Forum in CELAC's overall layout will inevitably decline in the short term, and in the medium and long term, uncertainties about the Forum's future are increasing.

Since its establishment three years ago, the China-CELAC Forum has undergone institutional building and become a main platform for collective cooperation between China and LAC countries, and its importance in China-LAC comprehensive cooperation is growing continuously. However,as the development of China-LAC multi-field cooperation has entered a fast growth period, the Forum is facing a great challenge of whether it can catch up with the rapidly expanding cooperation. First of all, mechanisms of the Forum require improvement and readjustment. In addition to economic and trade issues, the China-CELAC Forum should pay more attention to other fields, in particular environmental protection and climate change on which no special sub-forums have been set up to meet actual needs. The advantages of the platform for collective cooperation have not been brought into full play either because of the diversification of CELAC member states as well as the differences in their development modes and governance concepts. Progress in bilateral practical cooperation is also limited. For example, it was proposed at the first ministerial meeting that a summit for leaders of China and LAC countries be held at a proper time, but so far the proposal remains on paper with no substantial progress. Second, bilateral mechanisms and sub-regional organizations remain the main channels for China-LAC cooperation. It will take some time for LAC countries to carry out cooperation with China as an integrated group. Although CELAC aims to present a “concerted voice of Latin America” to the outside world, the organization is far behind other major sub-regional mechanisms in terms of history, mechanism-building as well as influence. And other multilateral institutions, such as the Forum of East Asia—Latin America Cooperation and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, play a bigger role in the cooperation between China and some Latin American countries. Third, in terms of global diplomatic layout of both China and LAC, before the China-CELAC Forum, China had established a number of trans-regional cooperation mechanisms with other developing countries such as the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, and Latin American sub-regional organizations such as CELAC and the Union of South American Nations have also established institutionalized links with other regions or countries, such as the EU-LAC Summit. For now, the China-CELAC Forum still has a lot to do compared with other trans-regional organizations.

CELAC is the first regional body that excludes the United States and Canada. Although there is no regional consensus on its intention to replace the Organization of American States (OAS), it is a fact that leftwing countries such as Venezuela and Cuba are the main driving forces for its establishment and follow-up operation, which gives it a distinct leftwing political flavor. Bolivian President Evo Morales even publicly said that CELAC will become a “weapon to fight against imperialism” for LAC countries.7Zhao Minghao, “Why China Attaches Increasing Importance to Latin American Countries,” The Chahar Institute, July 21, 2014, http://www.charhar.org.cn/newsinfo.aspх?newsid=7908The United States has not yet stood up against CELAC, but it has made OAS a priority in its relations with LAC countries. Given this, it is unavoidable that the China-CELAC Forum will be regarded as a quasipolitical alliance by the US. Actually since the 1990s, the US has been monitoring and assessing China's activities in LAC countries, fearing that the continued deepening of China-LAC relations will threaten its interests in the region. Recently, there have been clear signs that Washington is making efforts to regain its influence in the region. Before his trip to Latin America this February, then Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that China's investment and development program are only for its own benefits, and he warned Latin American countries to be vigilant of Chinese investment and not to be overly reliant on economic and trade relations with China.8“Vicious Attacks against China and Russia by US Secretary of State Tillerson in His Trip to Latin America,” February 3, 2018, http://news.163.com/18/0203/13/D9NLAPDR00018AOQ_all.html.US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis also said that the United States and LAC countries should keep a close eye on China's actions in Latin America, and claimed that the Chinese government's support of its large domestic enterprises expanding overseas is also a way to control the sovereignty of other countries. Recently, the US has put pressure on Panama, the Dominican Republic and El Salvador because of their decisions to establish diplomatic relations with China. Washington not only recalled its diplomats from the three countries, but also suspended a meeting with Central American officials. The US even publicly declared that there was no transparency in the establishment of diplomatic relations and the economic and trade agreements between China and the above Central American countries, and threatened to impose sanctions against the countries. All these actions not only reflect the fact that the United States cannot bear the idea of losing Latin America, but also highlight the determination of the US to stop the deepening of China-LAC relations. Under this circumstance, the possibility of enhanced US-LAC cooperation cannot be ruled out, and the enthusiasm of Latin American countries to participate in the China-CELAC Forum may be reduced accordingly. Besides the United States, India, Russia,the European Union and Japan have also increased their involvement in Latin America. Since the first foreign ministers' meeting with the CELAC troika in 2012, a series of bilateral cooperation mechanisms between India and Latin America have taken shape. India has become a non-negligible new geopolitical force in Latin America. Since 2008, Russia began to return to Latin America. In May 2013, the foreign ministers of Russia and the CELAC troika had a meeting; in 2015, Russia and CELAC established a permanent cooperation mechanism; and in November 2016, foreign ministers of the CELAC quartet visited Russia. All these show that Russia has successfully reversed its declining influence in Latin America. As a traditional external force in Latin America, the European Union not only has close ties with the Southern Common Market, it has also held three summits with CELAC. It is clear that the EU takes the lead in the cooperation between outsiders and LAC countries. In addition, Japan has also expressed its hope to establish a dialogue mechanism with CELAC. With the continuous institutionalization of cooperation mechanisms between outside countries and Latin America,the external pressure on the China-CELAC Forum is increasing.

Future Prospects

As the China-CELAC Forum develops from its start-up period to growth period, it is bound to come across more difficulties. However, since the collective cooperation conforms to actual needs and long-term interests of China-LAC relations, and the China-LAC cooperation is deepening steadily,the China-CELAC Forum will unswervingly develop as the main channel for collective cooperation between China and Latin America. Nevertheless,China should rationally view the problems and contradictions exposed in the process of the Forum's development, and take necessary measures to deal with them to ensure smooth and orderly operation of the Forum.

Collective cooperation is in the interests of China-LAC relations.In recent years, with the improvement of its own overall strength and international influence, China has shown greater policy initiative in its relations with developing countries. With the purpose of economizing its diplomatic resources and improving cooperation efficiency, China has carried out a series of practices to promote cross-regional cooperation with developing regions. The China-CELAC Forum is a product of this policy consideration and a “necessary option” for China's global strategy. In 2016,the Chinese government issued its second Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean, which clearly points out that China will promote collective cooperation with LAC mainly through the Forum, and strengthen dialogue and cooperation with relevant sub-regional organizations and multilateral financial institutions, so as to create a balanced, all-round network of cooperation between China and LAC.9“China's Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean.”In addition, although the inputs of China and LAC countries to the Forum are unbalanced, the collective cooperation represented by the China-CELAC Forum is of obvious practical significance to LAC countries. The integration process of Latin America started early, but the development path has been tortuous. Although there are louder voices for internal cooperation and integration in Latin America at present, and the demand for interconnectivity is high, but the LAC integration remains at a low level. Part of the reason for this is the lack of funds and technology, which has limited the implementation of big ideas such as the Latin American Energy Network and the South American Transport Integration Network. Meanwhile, China not only has a strategic plan for collective cooperation, but also has obvious advantages in terms of capital and technology. Therefore, China and the LAC countries should go beyond their bilateral cooperation and carry out collective cooperation in the fields of energy resources and infrastructure, which will help promote integration in the region and meet the actual needs of Latin America.

The trend of deepening China-LAC cooperation is irreversible. On the one hand, rising protectionism in the United States and some European countries has shattered Latin America's hope of realizing its development goals by relying on the US and Europe. However, both China and Latin America are active supporters and promoters of marketization and globalization. “China opportunities” and “Pacific consciousness” have taken a more prominent position in Latin America's external strategy. As China always attaches great importance to its cooperation with LAC countries,the consensus for bilateral cooperation will be further strengthened, and the foundation of cooperation will become more stable. On the other hand,the Belt and Road Initiative has extended to Latin America, which provides new opportunities for the deepening of China-LAC cooperation. The BRI originates from China, but the opportunities and outcomes it brings belong to the whole world. In May 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping clearly stated that Latin America is the natural extension of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road in his talk with Argentine President Mauricio Macri. This marked the formal involvement of Latin America in the BRI. Panama President Juan Carlos Varela, during his visit to China in November, signed a memorandum of understanding with China on the joint construction of the Belt and Road,making Panama the first Latin American country to launch Belt and Road cooperation with China. In early 2018, the second ministerial meeting of the China-CELAC Forum issued a special statement on the BRI, which marked the high degree of consensus reached between China and Latin America on the BRI's leading role in the two sides' multi-field cooperation. This is mainly due to the fact that the current China-LAC cooperation is in line with the BRI's essence. The cooperation priorities of the BRI, namely policy coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration and people-to-people bonds, are all reflected in the current cooperation between China and LAC countries. China has signed cooperation documents on jointly building the Belt and Road with 11 Latin American and Caribbean countries so far, including Panama (November 2017), Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname (May 2018), Antigua and Barbuda and Bolivia(June 2018), Dominica and Guyana (July 2018), Uruguay (August 2018),Costa Rica, Venezuela and Grenada (September 2018). This shows that the BRI provides a new platform for the deepening of China-LAC cooperation and has injected powerful impetus into the development of the Forum. There exists great potential and broad prospects for China-LAC cooperation.

Although CELAC's efforts to promote the China-CELAC Forum are showing a weakening trend and this situation will last in the short term, the Forum's advance is irreversible. In this context, China should undertake the responsibility of a major promoter and contributor to China-LAC collective cooperation. China needs to provide more effective public goods in terms of concepts, funds and mechanism-building, strengthen its guiding of the Forum at the macro level, and push forward the Forum's development in a steady and orderly way.

First, in order to avoid increasing the imbalance of inputs into the Forum, China should not only attend to its own interests when promoting the Forum's development, but should also pay attention to the actual needs of LAC countries. China should accurately understand the development stage of LAC countries, and respect and support their strategies and objectives. It should actively guide the Forum to facilitate the synergy of strategies of China and LAC countries. This will not only help mobilize the enthusiasm of the Latin American side to participate in the Forum's development, but also make the Forum more pragmatic.

Second, communication and coordination with key LAC countries on the Forum should be strengthened. There are big divergences among the CELAC member states, and they have different considerations for cooperation with China. Since major Latin American countries have overwhelming influence and a greater voice in regional affairs, China should take the initiative to increase communication and coordination with these countries concerning the Forum's development. On the one hand, more efforts should be made to dispel misgivings and enhance trust in order to remove unnecessary concerns and build the broadest consensus for the Forum's advancement. On the other hand, it is necessary to coordinate the unavoidable clashes of interests in collective cooperation through bilateral channels. China should also be prepared for potential risks so as to prevent partial competition from impacting the overall advancing of China-LAC cooperation.

Third, the China-CELAC Forum should prioritize economic and trade cooperation, cultural exchanges and joint efforts for better global governance,since it is much easier to reach consensus in these fields and it will help give full play to the Forum's advantages as a collective cooperation platform. First of all, economic and trade cooperation is the realistic foundation of collective cooperation, and is also the area to which the China-LAC Cooperation Plan (2015-2019) gives the most attention. China and LAC countries have set the goal of increasing trade between the two sides to $500 billion, and raising the stock of reciprocal investment to at least $250 billion in ten years.This represents not only one important early harvest of the Forum, but will also determine the direction of the mechanism. It is also the top priority for consolidating the political will and confidence to deepen China-LAC cooperation.10Zhou Zhiwei, “China-LAC Overall Cooperation: Opportunities, Challenges and Policy Thinking,”Fоrum оf Wоrld Eсоnоmiсs & Pоlitiсs, No.5, 2016, p.133.Therefore, the China-CELAC Forum should further deepen bilateral economic and trade relations, actively promote the transformation and upgrade of economic and trade cooperation, and take the initiative to push forward the realization of objectives set in bilateral cooperation.Second, insufficient mutual understanding has become one major obstacle to the further development of bilateral cooperation in other fields. Therefore,China and LAC countries have reached broad consensus on expanding people-to-people and cultural exchanges. This means that it will be much easier for Latin American countries to cooperate with other countries in the cultural field as a whole, and the collective cooperation is also in line with China's original purpose of achieving scale effects and improving cooperation efficiency. Accordingly, people-to-people and cultural exchanges should also be a key cooperation area under the framework of China-CELAC Forum.Third, both China and LAC countries are developing countries, and China,Brazil and Mexico are all emerging market economies. Because of their common identity, China and LAC countries share consistent stances on global issues such as reforming the global governance system, tackling climate change and safeguarding free trade. Moreover, compared with economics and trade, China and LAC countries have fewer dialogues and less cooperation on global governance issues and the existing sub-regional organizations have failed to become major platforms for bilateral interactions on these issues.11He Shuangrong, “Challenges and Opportunities for Chinese-Latin American Relations: An Analysis Based on Global Governance,” Jоurnаl оf Lаtin Аmеriсаn Studiеs, No.3, 2014, p.10.Against this background, there is great potential to strengthen dialogue and cooperation in global governance within the framework of the China-CELAC Forum, and it is easier to achieve practical results. For instance, in the face of rising protectionism in Europe and the United States, China and Latin America should make use of the Forum to actively voice their support for free trade and multilateralism, and promote the continuous improvement of global economic governance. In addition, China and LAC countries can also set up sub-forums on climate change, environmental protection and other professional fields under the Forum's framework, so as to promote mechanism-building of the China-CELAC Forum.