Technology Foresight Research in the Field of Artificial Intelligence

Dai Lei , Wei Que

(Jilin Science and Technology Information Institute,Changchun,Jilin,130033)

Abstract: The State Council issued the “Development Plan on the New Generation of Artificial Intelligence”in July 2017, which clarified the direction, path and goal of the development of artificial intelligence in China.In this field,the biggest problem is the uncertainty of the limit and direction of innovation resources. As a new type of strategic management tool dedicated to the integration of science and technology and economic information, technology foresight can effectively solve the problem of the selection of development direction in this field. Based on the development status of artificial intelligence in Jilin Province and the application of patent analysis method to grasp the development of advantageous industries in Jilin Province, this paper applies patent navigation to rationally allocate and arrange the advantageous industrial resources and also analyzes the technical bottleneck and development direction in this field,trying to select key technologies in the field of artificial intelligence to form a navigation map. The final research results have certain theoretical and practical significance for science and technology to lead the grand goal of revitalizing Jilin’s old industrial base.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence;technology foresight;patent analysis;patent navigation;scientific and technological management

Introduction

In recent years, artificial intelligence has been driven by the combination of new theories and new technologies such as mobile Internet, big data,supercomputing,sensor networks and brain sciences,as well as strong demands for economic and social development. As a result, artificial intelligence has accelerated development, showing new features such as deep learning and cross-border integration,human-machine collaboration,intelligence openness,and autonomous control. The major developed countries in the world have taken the development of artificial intelligence as a major strategy to enhance national competitiveness and safeguard national security. They have intensified the introduction of plans and policies and strengthened the deployment of core technologies, top talents and standards in an effort to dominate in the new round of international science and technology competition.

In July 2017, the State Council issued the“Development Plan on the New Generation of Artificial Intelligence”, which pointed out a clear route for grasping the major strategic opportunities for the development of artificial intelligence and constructing the first-mover advantage of the development of artificial intelligence in China. The plan proposes that by 2020, artificial intelligence technology will be synchronized with the world’s advanced level. By 2030, China will become the world’s leading innovation center of artificial intelligence and the intelligent economy and intelligent society will achieve remarkable results,laying an important foundation for being among the forefront of innovative countries and economic powers. The artificial intelligence core industry will have a scale of more than 1 trillion yuan, driving the related industries to exceed 10 trillion yuan. Report on the Work of the Government clearly stated that it would accelerate the cultivation and expansion of emerging industries, fully implement the strategic emerging industry development plan, accelerate the research and development and transformation of new materials, artificial intelligence, integrated circuits,bio-pharmaceuticals, fifth-generation mobile communications and become a bigger and stronger industrial cluster.This is the first time that“artificial intelligence”has been written into Report on the Work of the Government.

Jilin Province has a certain foundation in the field of artificial intelligence, but the overall development level is still different from that of developed provinces, for there are no major original results.There is a big gapt in the aspects such as the basic theory, core algorithms and key equipment,high-end chips, major products and systems, basic materials, components, software and interfaces.Scientific research institutions and enterprises have not yet formed an internationally influential ecosystem and industrial chain and lack of systematic advanced research and development layout.Cutting-edge talents of artificial intelligence can not meet the needs and the infrastructure, policies and regulations and standard systems that adapt to the development of artificial intelligence need to be improved. At present, the biggest problem faced by Jilin Province is the limit of innovation resources and the uncertainty of the direction.

Technology foresight can well solve the development direction of artificial intelligence in Jilin Province and the problem of innovative resource allocation.Technology Foresight is a systematic study of scientific, technological, economic and social development in the long term to determine strategic research fields and select general technologies that maximize the contribution to economic and social interests. Technology foresight is a new type of strategic management tool dedicated to the integration of technology and economic information as well as the rationalization of various resources. The basic idea of it is to implement the integrate foresight to science, technology, economy and society in the future and systematically select those strategic research fields, key technologies and general technologies, using the market’s allocation of resources to maximize economic and social benefits.

In order to implement the national innovation-driven development strategy in depth,China takes the main direction of the country for promoting the development of science and technology innovation as a guide to keep up closely with the development trend of the industry. It also accurately grasps the development status of artificial intelligence technology in Jilin Province to better give full play to the guiding role of patent information resources in industrial operation decision-making. This paper plans the future development of artificial intelligence in Jilin Province through the scientific method of technology foresight.

1 Technology Foresight Review

1.1 The Connotation and Significance of Technology Foresight

The predecessor of technology foresight was the technology forecasting that emerged to meet the needs of military and economic competition in the 1940s. The quantitative technology foresight method was developed maturely in the 1970s. In the 1980s,with the uncertainty of technology, business and society, the technology foresight based on qualitative methods has gradually attracted attention and has become an international trend. As technological innovation has increasingly become the decisive force in today’s world economic and social development,major world countries have successively carried out technology forecasting and foresight activities. At present, the development of technology foresight in various countries in the world reflects the trend of“integrated forecasting”,“systematic selection”and“optimized allocation”.However,in practice,the way and ideas of technology foresight work in various countries have been different. The summary and reflection on the technology foresight work will undoubtedly help the development of Jilin Province’s science and help it to effectively carry out technology foresight work. In terms of means, the means used for foresight activities can be mainly divided into five stages as shown in Table 1-1.

Table 1- 1 Five Stages of Technology Foresight Activities

It can be seen from Table 1-1 that the technology foresight activities involve more fields and people, and the scope of influence caused by technology foresight work will be wider.The practice of each country just proves this. With the acceleration of technological innovation and the intensification of competition, the effectiveness of technology foresight has become more prominent.More and more countries recognize the value of technology foresight and actively carry out various types of technology foresight activities. The number of countries for technology foresight has increased rapidly especially in the last decade. According to the literature and research data, the countries that carried out technology foresight activities in the world were gradually increased from only one country in Japan in the 1970s to 25 countries in the late 1990s and 79 countries at present (see Figure 1-1),mainly distributing in Europe, North America, South America, Asia and so on. We also noticed that not only the developed countries such as the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany actively carried out technology foresight activities,but also developing countries such as China, South Korea, and India have launched research on technology foresight plans and key technology selection. At the same time, international Organizations such as OECD,UNIDO and APEC are playing an increasingly important role in cooperation research of cross-country technology foresight.

Figure 1- 1 Annual Changes in the Number of Countries Conducting Global Technology Foresight Activities

Not only that, because technology foresight provides a basis for grasping the world’s science and technology frontiers and national strategies and provides the necessary means to optimize the allocation of science and technology resources, the number of technology foresight activities in various countries has increased year by year,with the trend of acceleration.By sorting out the number of technology foresight activities in countries since Japan carried out technologyforesight in 1970,it can be seen that before 1995,the number of technology foresight activities in various countries increased steadily and increased rapidly after 1996. After the financial crisis in 2000,the number of technology foresight activities has increased significantly.(See Figure 1-2)

In the following, the author will combine the actual situation of technology foresight work in recent years in some countries from the history of technology foresight work, the actual situation of recent technology foresight work, the result of recent technology foresight work and the brief evaluation to technology foresight work. It briefly describes the characteristics and stages of the technology foresight work of each country.

Figure 1- 2 Annual Changes in the Number of Global Technology Foresight Activities

1.2 Applicable Methods of Jilin Artificial Intelligence Technology Foresight

In general, the main operation methods of technology foresight include Delphi method, scenario analysis/planning, key technology selection,brainstorming, technology roadmap, trend extrapolation, analytic hierarchy, etc. The comparatively general method used by countries is the large-scale Delphi method. However, as technology foresight activities become more frequent,people have higher requirements on how to effectively implement the objectives of technology foresight activities. The improvement of methods of technology foresight is also a common concern for experts in the world today. After 2000, in order to guarantee the scientific nature of technology foresight activities, quantitative or semi-quantitative methods were gradually applied to technology foresight activities and methods of technology foresight tend to be diversified and integrated. At present, patent analysis method, bibliometrics and other methods have been more and more applied.

Based on the author’s research level and realistic needs,this study will adopt the combination of qualitative research and quantitative research to make technology foresight for the development of Jilin Province in the field of artificial intelligence in the next 10 years. Qualitative research will use a combination of patent analysis, Delphi investigation method and scenario analysis method to predict the method. Quantitative analysis will use literature measurement method to analyze the main talents and achievements of Jilin Province in the field of artificial intelligence. This study also draws on the actual experience of countries’ technology foresight,combines the results of technology foresight with market demand, comprehensively discovers and recognizes market opportunities, opens up barriers between technology foresight work and industrialization of results, and finally proposes suggestions on the policy of rational allocation and layout of superior industrial resources, field of research and development, selection of key technologies,and cultivation of markets based on the above research results.

On the one hand, this study implements the rational allocation and layout of superior industrial resources based on the grasp of the development of superior industries in Jilin Province. On the other hand, based on the analysis of the technical bottlenecks and development directions of superior industries, this study tries to select key technologies.The final research result has certain theoretical and practical significance for applying science and technology to lead the grand goal of supporting and revitalizing Jilin’s old industrial base.

2 The Overall Situation of Global Artificial Intelligence Development

2.1 Review of Artificial Intelligence Development

A popular definition of artificial intelligence,also an earlier definition of the field,was proposed by John McCarthy at the Dartmouth Conference in 1956-artificial intelligence is to make machine’s behavior seems to be the same as the intelligent behavior that people display.But this definition seems to ignore the possibility of strong artificial intelligence.Another definition says that artificial intelligence is the intelligence exhibited by artificial machines. In general, the definition of artificial intelligence can be divided into four categories, namely, the machine“thinks like a person”, “acts like a person”,“reasonally thinks”and “rationally acts”.“Action”here should be broadlyunderstood as acting or making decisions about actions rather than physical actions.

Artificial intelligence is a challenging science,and people who do this work must understand computer science, psychology, and philosophy.Artificial intelligence is a very broad science that consists of different fields, such as machine learning,computer vision,etc.In general,one of the main goals of artificial intelligence research is to enable machines to perform complex tasks that typically require human intelligence. But different time and different people have different understandings of this“complex work”. For example, heavy scientific and engineering calculations are supposed to be undertaken by the human brain. Now computers can not only perform such calculations, but also can do it faster and more accurately than the human brain.Therefore, contemporary people no longer see such calculations a “complex task that requires human intelligence to complete”. The definition of the complex work of courseware changes with the development of the time and the advancement of technology.The specific goal of artificial intelligence has naturally evolved with the changes of the time.On the one hand,it continues to make new progress,and on the other hand it turns to more meaningful and more difficult goals. The main material means that can be used to study artificial intelligence and the machines that can realize artificial intelligence plan are computers. The development history of artificial intelligence is related to the development history of computer science and technology. Besides computer science, artificial intelligence involves many disciplines such as information theory,cybernetics, automation, bionics, biology,psychology, mathematical logic, linguistics,medicine, and philosophy. The main contents of artificial intelligence research include knowledge representation, automatic reasoning and search methods, machine learning and knowledge acquisition, knowledge processing system, natural language understanding, computer vision, intelligent robot,automatic programming and so on.

In July 2017, the Chinese government introduced a new strategy with a clear goal-to catch up with the United States in the development of artificial intelligence technology within three years and wished to be the world leader by 2030. The document issued by the Ministry of Science and Technology lists 13 “transformation”technologies and plans to invest more government funds in the next few months to complete the handover by 2021.According to experts’prediction, in 2030, artificial intelligence may generate 10 trillion yuan of industry in China, with finance, automobile, retail and medical service accounting for the main aspects.

2.2 New Trends in Global Artificial Intelligence Development

2.2.1 Domestic and International Market Scale of Artificial Intelligence

The artificial intelligence market will maintain rapid growth. In 2015, the global AI market scale is about 48.4 billion yuan. According to the BBC’s forecast, by 2020, the global AI market scale will reach 119 billion yuan and China will be about 9.1 billion yuan.

Figure 2- 1 Market Scale of Global Artificial Intelligence Industry(Unit:100 million yuan)

In 2016, the market scale of China’s artificial intelligence industry was 23.9 billion yuan.In 2017,it will reach 29.5 billion yuan,with an increase of nearly 25% . The entire artificial intelligence market is exploding. As technology gradually matures, some companieshaveapplied artificial intelligence tocertain specialscenariostogeneratecommercialvalue.

Figure 2- 2 Market Size of China’s Artificial Intelligence Industry(Unit:100 million yuan)

2.2.2 The Development Trend of Artificial Intelligence Technology

From the perspective of technology development, there are seven major trends of AI development including the global AI industry-smarter robots,faster analysis,more natural interactions, more subtle fears, smarter learning,knowledge sharing, and intelligent drones. The countries with active applications of artificial intelligence around the world are the United States,China, Britain, Japan, India, Israel, etc. The United States is in a leading position in this field, while the United Kingdom is very advanced in research. For example, companies such as DeepMind have gathered many neuroscientists, biologists, and computer scientists. Even Canada is working hard to promote the development of artificial intelligence such as Toronto and Montreal are doing their best to promote related industries. Artificial intelligence technology is still developing rapidly in the United States, Europe and Japan. IBM, which is very active in the field of AI technology, has already produced the Asci White computer for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, which claims to have one-thousandth of the intelligence of the human brain.Besides,the more powerful new supercomputer under development “Blue Jean”, according to its research director Paul?Horn said that the intelligence level of“Blue Jean”will be roughly equivalent to the human brain.

The development of technology is always beyond people’s imagination and it is impossible to accurately predict the future of artificial intelligence.However,from some current forward-looking studies,it can be seen that artificial intelligence may develop in the following directions, fuzzy processing,parallelization, neural networks and machine feelings.

At the same time, the development potential of artificial intelligence is huge. The research of artificial intelligence as a whole has only just begun and it is still far away from our goal, but artificial intelligence will have a big breakthrough in some aspects, for example, automatic reasoning, machine learning,and natural language processing.

An optimistic estimate is that it is possible to achieve generalized artificial intelligence in 2040.Toby Walsh, an AI researcher at the University of New South Wales in Australia, argues in the forthcoming book“Android Dreams”that developing thinking machines is like adventures of the past that have been tried as bold and ambitious by human.“Like Copernican’s heliocentric revolution, this will fundamentally change the way we see ourselves in the universe”.

The number of drones, driverless cars and medical, educational, home robots is exploding,wandering in our skies, streets, and homes, which makes these problems even more urgent. Although the robot revolution is expected to improve the living conditions of human beings, it is also possible to release subversive economic power.

3 The Development of Artificial Intelligence Technology in China

3.1 The Status Quo of Artificial Intelligence Development in China

In recent years, all countries in the world have been continuously walking on the new road of“research and utilization of artificial intelligence”,especially the United States and Japan. They have gradually developed into “artificial intelligence powers”. China’s artificial intelligence research started late and the research (intelligent simulation)incorporated into the national plan began in 1978.Since 1981, Chinese Artificial Intelligence Society,National College Artificial Intelligence Professional Committee and Chinese Computer Society Artificial Intelligence and Pattern Recognition Committee have been established. In 1984, a national academic seminar on intelligent computer and its systems was held. Since 1986, intelligent computer systems,intelligent robots, and intelligent information processing (including analog recognition)have been listed as national high-tech research projects. In 1987, “Simulation Recognition and The Journal of Artificial Intelligence”was published. So far, many domestically produced artificial intelligence monographs and textbooks have been published.China Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence Control (CJCAI),which was held for the first time in 1989, has been held many times until now. Since 1993, intelligent control and intelligent automation have been included in the climbing plan of national science and technology. In recent years, many companies in China have followed the trend of world research and carried out research and development work on knowledge discovery, data mining,multi-agent systems, pattern recognition, intelligent robots, natural language processing and automatic reasoning, making plenty of progress. At present,there are tens of thousands of scientific and technical personnel and university teachers and students in China who are engaged in different levels of artificial intelligence research and learning. Artificial intelligence research has been carried out deeply in China. Although the Chinese artificial intelligence discipline started late, in terms of theoretical research, it has “overtaken Japan and pursued the United States”and fully achieved the world’s leading level. In particular, the new comprehensive innovation developed by Chinese scientists in collaboration with foreign traditional research methods. The research system has made outstanding contributions to the scientific development of international artificial intelligence.

The biomimetic recognition method and the extenics theory proposed by Chinese scientists are unique in the world. They can better deal with the contradictions that were difficult to solve in the past in artificial intelligence and have gradually replaced the previous theory of simulation human body’s structure, becoming a research method that preferentially applied by global laboratory.

Although China’s software level of artificial intelligence is not low, it is still not high in terms of hardware and machine manufacturing. Compared with countries with high application level and popularity such as Japan, China is still in a“very junior”stage. This does not mean that China can’t develop robots with powerful functions. In fact,China’s laboratory research and production level can completely produce the same level of artificial intelligence results as Japan. The main reason that affects the development of artificial intelligence applications in China is that there is still a large gap between the working production level compared with US and Japan. It is also difficult to meet the demand for resources and energy consumption.In addition,an advanced artificial intelligence achievement requires high costs when it is marketed at the beginning and it is still a luxury for some ordinary families in China.Therefore, it is difficult to keep up with foreign countries in terms of market demand and promotion.

27. Not dreaming after what manner she should dress them: The French verb habiller can mean, as in English, to put on clothing or to clean and truss, making this a rare instance in which a pun or double entendre translates successfully across two languages (Larousse, p. 490).Return to place in story.

3.2 The Demand for Artificial Intelligence in China’s Economic and Social Development

Although China’s key technologies of artificial intelligence, especially core algorithms, are comparable to those of developed countries, the overall development level of artificial intelligence in China still has a large gap compared with developed countries such as high-precision parts, technology industry, and industrial design, large intelligent systems, large-scale application systems and basic platforms. Experts pointed out that the development of artificial intelligence technology in China is still facing challenges in terms of institutional mechanisms,innovative talents,and infrastructure.

According to statistics, more than half of the data scientists in the United States have more than 10 years of work experience, while in China, more than 40% of data scientists have less than five years of work experience. Also, there are fewer than 30 university research laboratories in China that focus on artificial intelligence and the number of talents exported is far from meeting the needs of artificial intelligence companies. In addition, most of China’s artificial intelligence scientists focus on areas such as computer vision and speech recognition, which talents in other fields are relatively scarce.

In terms of industrial applications, although the results of artificial intelligence technology have been applied in more and more fields in China, there are still some problems. For example, with the exception of a few vertical fields,with years of experience in big data accumulation and business process optimization,it has spawned application scenarios where marketing, risk control, smart investment, security and other artificial intelligence technologies can directly land.There is still a big gap between most of the traditional industry’s business needs and cutting-edge scientific and technological achievements of artificial intelligence. The combination of mobile Internet applications and artificial intelligence technologies for the ordinary consumer is still in the exploratory stage.

China should build an open and shared innovation development platform of artificial intelligence, attach importance and strengthen the forward-looking basic research of artificial intelligence, and increase personnel training.Establish a more relaxed policy environment in the deepening of promotion and application of artificial intelligence technology and market access,China will continuously improve the level of informatization to support intelligent development and actively introduce and train more leading talents with international influence.

4 Research on the Development Status of Artificial Intelligence in Jilin Province Based on Patent Navigation

4.1 Patent Navigation

Patent navigation aims to drive development strategy around innovation, with patents as the link,innovation as the core, market as the orientation to guide scientific and technological innovation,promote management innovation, enhance the ability of China’s core competitiveness of innovative entities by using patents and ultimately improve the country as a whole. Patent navigation is mainly targeted at patent-intensive industries and use patent data as the main body of information acquisition to comprehensive apply patent information analysis and market value analysis method, combine the analysis and excavation of economic data and intellectual property strategies of leading enterprises, accurately grasp the inherent law and influence reflected in the development of the whole industry of patents. Patent navigation also profoundly reveals the industrial competition pattern, scientifically consolidates the direction of technological innovation, effectively prevents the risks of industrial development and steadily improves the level of patent application.

The main task of patent navigation, first,establishing a sound mechanism of patent navigation is to guide the development of the industry, improve the scientific level of industrial development decision-making, promote the optimal allocation of industrial superior resources, effectively enhance the ability of independent innovation and steadily increase the competitive advantage of the industry.Second, it is necessary to guide the industrial upgrading and transformation,optimize the industrial structure and gradually cultivate the industrial cluster that leads the leading enterprises of industry chain and the upstream and downstream enterprise to closely cooperate with the industrial cluster and the benign development of industrial ecosystems. Third,guiding enterprises to cultivate core competitive advantages and improve the value chain status of industries, the company’s right to speak in international competition and rulemaking and the influence and control of enterprises on industrial development will be enhanced.Fourth,it is necessary to guide the cooperative use of patents, promote the overall competitiveness of the industry, guide the market entities of complementary advantages such as upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain to carry out in-depth cooperation by using the patent application synergy as a link,establish a new model of coordinated development of industrial cluster, and promote the overall competitiveness of the industry. Fifth, China must guide the cultivation of patent application services that meet the actual needs of the industry, effectively support industry high-end development.Establishing the investment and financing mechanism that adapts to the needs of middle and small-sized enterprises,China shall promote investment and financing of patents, securities, insurance, trust and other business development as well as cultivate the development of patent deal-flow service system for promoting concentration and diffusion of patents.

This chapter collects, sorts and summarizes the development and technical information in the field of artificial intelligence, understanding the basic situation and overall trend of industrial development and determining the route and boundary of the research. After that, by analyzing the characteristics of various indicators, it is determined which dimensions to implement analysis, which can comprehensively and accurately reflect the technical development and international status of China’s artificial intelligence field.

The patent analysis adopts the Innography patent search and analysis platform launched by Dialog and the search time range is from January 1997 to October 2017. More than 400,000 patent data were retrieved and analyzed.Patent analysis of 7 dimensions of 17 technical fields of 3 levels in the artificial intelligence industry chain was conducted.

Among the five parts of the basic layer, China ranks first in the world in the number of invention patents in the field of cloud computing and sensors.The field of chip and storage devices ranks second in the world and the data resources field ranks third in the world.From an institutional point of view,China’s institutions are more likely to have advantages in the field of data resources and cloud computing.Enterprises as Huawei, ZTE, and Inspur are among the best in the world. In other fields, China’s institutional advantages are not obvious.

The patent navigation map in the field of artificial intelligence is drawn on the main line of the artificial intelligence industry chain. The artificial intelligence industry chain is divided into three levels: the basic layer, the technical layer and the application layer. Among them, the basic layer is the prerequisite for driving the development of artificial intelligence, including 5 parts as data resources,Jilin Province institutional rankings, China, Jilin Province, Changchun patent comparisons, world patent rankings of the top five patent producing countries and target countries comparative analysis,major technical hotspot analysis and core patents,etc.cloud computing, chips, sensors and storage devices.The advancement of the technology layer has made the development of artificial intelligence significantly accelerated in recent years including 3 parts as framework layer, algorithm layer (cognitive intelligence)and general technology layer (perceived intelligence).Application layer is divided into 9 parts as intelligent manufacturing, intelligent defense,intelligent marketing, intelligent education,intelligent finance, intelligent medical care,intelligent home, intelligent agriculture and other fields.

Figure 4- 1 Patent Navigation Map in the Field of Artificial Intelligence in Jilin Province

The dimensions of the analysis include world institutional rankings,Chinese institutional rankings,

Figure 4- 2 Basic Layer of Artificial Intelligence in Jilin Province

Located below the base layer is the technical layer, including 3 parts as the framework layer, the algorithm layer (cognitive intelligence) and the general technology layer(perceived intelligence).

Figure 4- 3 Technical Layer of Artificial Intelligence in Jilin Province

At the periphery area is the application layer in the field of artificial intelligence,including intelligent manufacturing, intelligent defense, intelligent marketing, intelligent education, intelligent finance,intelligent medical care, intelligent home, intelligent agriculture and other fields.

Figure 4- 4 Application Layer of Artificial Intelligence in Jilin Province

From the perspective of patent analysis,China’s patent ownership in the entire artificial intelligence application level is absolutely dominant in the world.The number of patents of institutions like Baidu,Zhejiang University, State Grid, Beihang University,Shandong University,Huawei,ZTE is at the forefront of the world, especially in the field of intelligent agriculture,which seven of the top ten institutions in the world are Chinese companies.Among the top ten organizations in the world of intelligent manufacturing, five are Chinese companies. Jilin Province has a relatively good foundation in the field of artificial intelligence application, but its technical strength is weak, which has led to the insufficient development of the application of artificial intelligence in the technology-intensive traditional industry.

4.2 Summary of Patent Navigation Analysis in the Field of Artificial Intelligence in Jilin Province

4.2.1 Advantages and Bottlenecks in Artificial Intelligence in Jilin Province

From the results of the above patent analysis,Jilin Province has different technical reserves and patent advantages in different fields. A brief summary is as follows.

Table 4- 1 Patent Reserves in Different Subdivisions of Artificial Intelligence in Jilin Province

It can be seen that at the basic level of artificial intelligence technology, the universities represented by Jilin University and the research institutes represented by Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry Chinese Academy of Sciences and Changchun Institute of Optics, Fine Mehcanics and Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences are still the main force of patent reserves in the field of artificial intelligence in Jilin Province.The four fields of cloud computing, artificial intelligence chip, sensor and storage device have certain technological advantages.These advantages ensure that Jilin Province can have sufficient technical supply when developing artificial intelligence technology applications.

At the application level of artificial intelligence,Jilin University has been involved in many fields and is the undisputed main force in the field of artificial intelligence application in Jilin Province. Among them,there are certain comparative advantages in the fields of intelligent defense, intelligent marketing,intelligent education application, intelligent finance,intelligent medical care,intelligent home application,etc. Jilin Province has sufficient technical needs in these fields and it is expected that Jilin Province will develop well in the above fields in the future.

In addition, through the analysis of patents in the field of artificial intelligence, it is not difficult to find that the number of patents held by enterprises in Jilin Province in various fields is small and the vitality of enterprises as the main body of innovation remains to be developed. Getting through the barrier between the technical needs of enterprises and the technical supply of universities and research institutes is still a difficult problem to be solved in Jilin Province.

4.2.2 Research on the Demand of Future Technology and Application for the Development Trend of Artificial Intelligence in Jilin Province

In order to speed up the integration of artificial intelligence and economic society as the main line to enhance the innovation direction of the new generation of artificial intelligence technology and strengthen the deployment around core technology,professional talents and standard specifications,combined with the situation of Jilin Province. In December 2017, the People’s Government of Jilin Province issued the“Implementation Opinions of the Jilin Provincial People’s Government on Implementing the Development Plan for a New Generation of Artificial Intelligence”(hereinafter referred to as the Opinions). Stating that in the field of artificial intelligence, Jilin Province should gather and cultivate a batch of intelligent high-end talents,develop a batch of artificial high-tech achievements,create a batch of innovation platform of artificial intelligence technology, cultivate and strengthen a group of leading enterprises of artificial intelligence and establish a number of demonstration bases(parks) of artificial intelligence application. Jilin Province should also build an ecosystem that integrates and interacts knowledge groups,technology groups, industrial clusters and is supported by talents, institutions and cultures to create new competitive advantages in Jilin Province,expand new development space and provide strong support and impetus for the construction of innovative Jilin and the comprehensive revitalization of Jilin’s old industrial base. According to the guidance in the Opinions, the development trend of medium and long-term artificial intelligence in Jilin Province has the following aspects for the demand of future technology and application.

5 Countermeasures and Suggestions for the Development of Artificial Intelligence in Jilin Province

5.1 The Selection of Core Technology

Through the previous analysis, the author believes that the future development focus of artificial intelligence,the selection of core technology should be discussed around the existing advantages of Jilin Province and the focus of future needs. Now combine the content of 4.2.2 and the content of table 4-1 to make a simple arrangement for the supply and demand of future technologies and applications in the development trend of medium and long-term artificial intelligence in Jilin Province.See Table 5-1 for details.

Table 5- 1 Demand for Future Technologies and Applications in the Development Trend of Medium and Long- term Artificial Intelligence in Jilin Province

From the above table,it can be clearly seen that the development of medium and long-term artificial intelligence technology in Jilin Province can divide the technical field into three levels according to the technical supply and demand situation in the province.

The first level, the technology supply and demand match the better key expansion layer. This level mainly includes intelligent finance, intelligent commerce, intelligent marketing, intelligent education, intelligent medical care, health and pension.In these areas,Jilin Province has a mature R&D team,relatively adequate technical reserves and strong research and development strength. It can be said that the development foundation is the best among all fields of artificial intelligence. For these fields, China should adopt the method of“high-end leading, key breakthrough”to continuously to enrich the talent team while actively utilizing various resources by using existing advantages for promoting the commercialization and industrialization of existing technological achievements and achievinf a virtuous cycle of production, education and research as soon as possible. Chian should strive to make significant progress in these fields and coordinate layout,market leading,integration and sharing.

The second level, the technology supply and demand part of the deep digging potential layer.This level mainly includes only software and hardware,intelligent manufacturing, intelligent agriculture and intelligent security.In these fields,Jilin Province still lacks mature R&D team, technical reserve and R&D strength. However, Jilin Province, as the core province of the old industrial base in Northeast China,has a good industrial agriculture base.If it can be combined with artificial intelligence, it has great potential. For these fields, China should adopt the method of“active exploration and deep potential”to continuously increase R&D efforts and mobilize all aspects of R&D resources to support relevant scientific and technological development and cultivate technological advantages in these fields,supplemented by a certain amount of policy support.In addition, China must actively utilize the superior resources of the first-tier related fields such as the talent resources and scientific research resources of Jilin University, explore the building mechanism of artificial intelligence R&D team that can be demonstrated and promoted and promote the technical supply of this level of technology by the advanced stage.

At the third level, technology has an active introduction layer that lacks supply. This level mainly includes intelligent robots, intelligent vehicles, virtual reality and augmented reality,intelligent logistics, intelligent tourism, intelligent grid, intelligent court, intelligent transportation and intelligent environmental protection. These fields not only lack sufficient research and development resources and technical reserves, but also lack the corresponding industrial base in Jilin Province,which is difficult to develop. For these fields, it is recommended to adopt the“integrated introduction”approach to achieve leapfrog development through the overall introduction of talent teams and technological achievements.

5.2 Rational Development Path in Research and Development

The basic principle is technology leadership.Facing the future, grasping the development trend of the world’s artificial intelligence, focusing on the advantages, characteristics and needs of Jilin Province,highlighting key points,optimizing resource allocation, organizing tacklig, continuously supporting and striving to make significant progress in theories,tools and systems of artificial intelligence of a certain research base and advantages in Jilin Province. China should coordinate layout, lead market,integrate sharing.

The first step is to improve the artificial intelligence development environment and infrastructure by 2020 and initially form the technology innovation system of a new generation of artificial intelligence development and industrial development system. Artificial intelligence has been effectively applied in related industries. The scale of the artificial intelligence core industry reached 5 billion yuan, driving the scale of relevant industry to reach 40 billion yuan.

In the second step,by 2025,the new generation of artificial intelligence technology innovation system and industrial development system will be gradually improved. A new generation of artificial intelligence basic theories, technologies and achievements have achieved a series of important results in many fields.Intelligent manufacturing, intelligent medical care,intelligent city, intelligent agriculture, and intelligent education have been greatly developed. The scale of the artificial intelligence core industry has reached more than 20 billion yuan,driving the scale of related industries to 200 billion yuan.

The third step is to form a new generation of artificial intelligence technology innovation system and industrial development system with distinct characteristics and obvious advantages by 2030. The technological innovation capability will be significantly improved. Artificial intelligence technology, economic and social development will be highly integrated and the leading role effect of new economy will be enhanced obviously.

It is necessary to focus on the needs of pillar industries such as automobile, petrochemical and agricultural product processing in Jilin Province and the advantageous industries such as medical health and equipment manufacturing as well as strategic emerging industries such as optoelectronics and space information, focusing on artificial intelligence in equipment manufacturing, education, medical care, environmental protection, agriculture and society. In the field of governance and other fields,the work is carried out at three levels-artificial intelligence basic theory, key core common technology, software and hardware support system to construct a public technology innovation platform of artificial intelligence.

It is necessary to cultivate a high-end and efficient intelligent economy, vigorously develop new industries of artificial intelligence, accelerate the upgrading of industrial intelligence, vigorously develop intelligent enterprises, create innovation and entrepreneurship of artificial intelligence, build a safe and convenient intelligent society and develop convenient and efficient intelligent services as intelligent education, intelligent medical care,intelligent health and pension.

5.3 Suggestions on the Rational Allocation and Layout of Artificial Intelligence Industry Resources in Jilin Province

5.3.1 Strengthening the Application of Basic Theory Research

Focusing on the important frontier issues of artificial intelligence, China shall take current needs and long-term development into account to break the bottleneck of artificial intelligence application basic theory. Advanced layout may lead to basic research on artificial intelligence paradigm change, China should promote cross-disciplinary integration and continue in order to develop and deepen artificial intelligence. Combining the advantages of basic theoretical research in the field of artificial intelligence in Jilin Province,it promotes research on important technologies and cross-domain basic theories such as big data, complex knowledge processing, intelligent optimization and group intelligence, intelligent information retrieval,intelligent data engineering, intelligent network public opinion analysis and intelligent bionic robots.China should also promote breakthroughs such as cross-media awareness computing, hybrid enhanced intelligence, autonomous collaborative control and optimization decision-making, advanced machine learning, promote new approaches to artificial intelligence combined with data-driven and knowledge-based guidance, cognitive computing theory and methods, comprehensive deep reasoning and creative artificial intelligence theory and method development. Meanwhile, China also should promote perceptual acquisition, active visual perception and computational research and development beyond human visual capabilities, promote collaborative sensing and interaction for autonomous unmanned systems, collaborative control, optimization decision-making,coordination and interoperability of knowledge-driven human-machine and promote advanced machine learning theory, brain-like intelligent computing and other applied theory research.

5.3.2 Strengthening key Common Technology Research and Development

Focusing on the economic and social development of Jilin Province,especially the demand for the competitiveness of enterprise products. The major requirements for artificial intelligence take algorithms as core,take data,hardware and materials as foundation,take enhancing perception recognition,knowledge calculation, cognitive reasoning, sports execution and human-computer interaction ability as key point to promote collaboration between industry,academia and research,knowledge computing engine and knowledge service technology, cross-media analysis and reasoning technology,group intelligence key technology, hybrid enhanced intelligent new architecture and new technology, intelligent networked automotive environment perception. The development of key common technologies such as intelligent technology, virtual reality intelligent modeling technology, intelligent computing chip and system and natural language processing technology for autonomous unmanned systems such as perception, intelligent decision-making and collaborative control focus on intelligent manufacturing and intelligent networked vehicles,intelligent agriculture, intelligent education,intelligent grid, intelligent medical care, virtual reality interaction, satellite and remote sensing, rail transit and other key core technologies to form an“ecosystem” for key technology sharing and exchange in the province and form the mutual promotion of collaborative research and development mechanism.

5.3.3 Constructing Public Technology Innovation Platform of Artificial Intelligence

People should integrate hardware and human resources of relevant research institutes and enterprises in the province, vigorously promote hardware platform sharing, network data resource sharing,code and knowledge sharing,technology and patent cooperation service system and accelerate the deployment of key laboratories, engineering laboratories and technological innovation center and enterprise technology center. China should also promote the establishment of big data open source software infrastructure platform of artificial intelligence, terminal and cloud collaborative artificial intelligence cloud service platform,establish Qunzhi Zhongchuang computing support platform,technology creation service system, Qunzhi software development and verification automation system,establish artificial intelligence super computing center, large-scale super intelligent computing support environment, online intelligent education platform and establish a common core technology support platform for autonomous unmanned systems,intelligent factory and intelligent control equipment technology support platform. The province should also construct a public data resource library,standard test data set, cloud service platform for artificial intelligence,establish artificial intelligence algorithm and platform security test model and evaluation model, develop artificial intelligence algorithm and platform security assessment tool set, and build a public open data platform.Relying on the third-party organizations such as the Artificial Intelligence Society and the Internet of Things Industry Association, it provides professional services such as artificial intelligence research and development tools,inspection and evaluation, technical evaluation,personnel training, safety, standards, intellectual property, and entrepreneurial consulting for relevant enterprises.

5.3.4 Cultivating High-end and Efficient Intelligent Economy

Focusing on the transformation and upgrading of key industries such as automobile, petrochemical,food, equipment and medicine, Jilin Province will guide basic and qualified enterprises to promote the intelligent transformation of production lines and promote the construction of digital workshops and intelligent factories. It will also promote the application of digital technology, system integration technology, intelligent manufacturing equipment and improve the intelligent level of enterprises’design,manufacturing,process and management.

The government will carry out pilot projects for the integration of Internet and industrial control automation systems, relying on key enterprises such as FAW, Changke, and Jihua to promote upstream and downstream supporting enterprises by using advanced manufacturing equipment such as industrial control systems, high-end CNC machine tools and automated production lines, and to support a group of manufacturing companies for developing digital transformation of production lines.In addition,it will construct digital workshops, implement pilot demonstration of intelligent manufacturing and strive to promote new manufacturing models such as Internet-based product design, flexible manufacturing, and personalized customization to promote the development of digital workshops to intelligent factories.