The Next Wave in the Internet’s Evolution 互联网的下一次浪潮

文/ 译/衡爱峰

By Steve Case

First came getting people online.Then the apps era took over.Now a fresh reimagining is taking off.最先是联网，然后是应用程序时代，现在开始新的重塑。

As the presidential candidates shift toward thegeneral election2 美国总统选举先进行初选（primaries），政党据此决定由谁代表本党角逐总统大位。本文写于2016年，正值美国大选之际。, voters will hear divergent plans to address the problem of“too big to fail”financial institutions.The real threat to Wall Street,however, doesn’t come from politicians,but from startups that are disrupting financial services at an unprecedented pace.

随着各位总统候选人转入大选阶段，选民会听到各式各样的计划来解决金融机构“大到不能倒”的问题。但是，华尔街面临的真正威胁不是来自政客，而是来自一批初创公司，它们正以前所未有的步伐改变着金融服务的格局。

[2]In 2015 investment in financial technology (FinTech) startups that aim to transform the industry rose to nearly$14 billion, according toAmerican Banker.As they gain customers, the megabanks will lose ground.“Too big to fail”also often means too clumsy to innovate.Already these institutions are finding themselves playing defense.Innovative blockchain technology—the magic behind Bitcoin—could drive further decentralization and disruption.

[2]《美国银行家》称，2015年，旨在重塑行业的金融科技初创公司吸引的投资增加到近140亿美元。它们的客户在增加，而大银行的客户在流失。所谓“大到不能倒”，往往是指尾大不掉、因循守旧。这些金融机构已然发现自己处于守势。创新的区块链技术，作为比特币背后的神秘力量，会进一步推动去中心化，打破现有格局。

[3]But it isn’t just banking.New startups are reimagining how we learn,eat, stay healthy and get around.This is only a start, as the Third Wave of the Internet gains strength.

[3]不过，新的初创公司不仅改变了银行业，还在重塑我们学习、饮食、保健和出行的方式。互联网的第三次浪潮正蓄势待发，而这才只是开头。

[4]The First Wave was about building the Internet.Companies such as AOL created the underlying infrastructure and brought America (and the rest of the world) online.This phase peaked around 2000, setting the stage for the Second Wave, which has been about building apps and services on top of the Internet.

[4]互联网的第一次浪潮是联网。美国在线（AOL）等公司创建了基础设施，美国（乃至全世界）得以联网。这次浪潮的高峰出现在2000年前后，它为第二次浪潮搭建了舞台。第二次浪潮的工作是基于互联网开发应用程序、提供服务。

[5]Now the Third Wave has begun.Over the next decade and beyond, the Internet will rapidly become ubiquitous,integrated into our everyday lives, often in invisible ways.This will challenge industries such as health care, education, financial services, energy and transportation—which collectively represent more than half the U.S.economy.

[5]现在，第三次浪潮已经来临。今后10年乃至更久，互联网将迅速变得无处不在，融入我们的日常生活，而且往往难以察觉。这将对医疗、教育、金融服务、能源和交通等占美国经济大半江山的行业形成挑战。

[6]Take education.While the presidential candidates discuss the merits of abolishing or expanding the federal Education Department, entrepreneurs are revolutionizing how instructors teach and students learn.Venture capitalists see what’s coming.Funding for EdTech startups hit $1.85 billion in 2015, accord-ing to EdSurge, up from $360 million in 2010.Former teachers are leading companies that are unleashing—finally—personalized and adaptive learning.While the pundits debate education policy, the innovators are in the trenches improving classrooms all across the country.

[6]拿教育来说，当总统候选人讨论联邦教育部是该废除还是加强的时候，创新企业家们已经开始对教与学进行革命。风险投资人先知先觉：根据美国教育垂直媒体EdSurge的数据，教育技术初创公司的融资由2010年的3.6亿美元上升至2015年的18.5亿美元。离职教师带领众多公司，最终打开个性化学习和自适应学习之门。专家权威们激辩教育政策之时，创新者们已付诸行动，在全美各地改进课堂。

[7]Or look at health care.As the candidates pitch plans to abolish or build on the Affordable Care Act, the real action to improve America’s medical system is coming from entrepreneurs.They are inventing better ways to keep us healthy, and smarter ways to treat us when we get sick.The revolution in health care is being led by the innovators who are working tirelessly to improve outcomes, enhance convenience and lower costs.And again, investors sense this: In 2015 health care companies raised a record $16.1 billion in venture capital,The Wall Street Journalreported, an increase from 2014 of 34%.

[7]再看医疗，当总统候选人还在就废除或完善平价医疗法案提出种种方案时，企业家们已经真刀真枪地改进美国的医疗体系。他们正在探索更好的方法维护我们的健康，探寻更妙的手段医治我们的疾病。领导医疗革命的那些创新者不知疲倦地改善疗效、增加便利、降低成本。这方面，投资者同样嗅觉灵敏：《华尔街日报》称，2015年医疗公司融得风险投资161亿美元，创下纪录，比2014年增加了34%。

[8]And work itself is changing.Politicians promise to boost job creation,but their debates seem out of step with reality.As more industries become“Uberized,”an increasing share of employees will work multiple gigs.A fulltime job with a single employer could become passé.Thus, how we manage benefits, sick leave and vacation will need to be modernized.That is likely the only path to lifting up the increasingly frustrated middle class.

[8]就业本身也在变化。政客们承诺促进就业，但他们的讨论却与现实不符。更多行业出现“优步化”，兼职工作者越来越多，只为一名雇主工作的全职就业可能过时。因此，福利、病假和休假方面的制度需要与时俱进。要提振日益沮丧的中产阶级，这很可能是唯一的途径。

[9]Second Wave startups have been centered around software: Build an app,do what you can to drive viral adoption,and then find a way to make money(usually by selling ads, but sometimes by selling the entire company).In the Third Wave this approach won’t work as well.

[9]第二次浪潮中的初创公司以软件为中心，开发应用程序，想办法推广，然后再寻找挣钱途径（一般是广告，而有时是把整家公司卖掉）。在第三次浪潮中，这种方式将不再适用。

[10]Third Wave innovators will need to learn the lessons of the First Wave: the importance of partnerships, policy and perseverance.They won’t be able to go it alone; they’ll need to go together.They’ll need to engage with governments, as regulators and often as customers.And they’ll need to recognize that revolutions often happen in evolutionary ways.Success will require many alliances, as well as constructive dialogue with regulators.

[10]第三次浪潮的创新者需要从第一次浪潮中汲取教训，认识合作、政策和坚持的重要性。创新者不能单打独斗，而要结伴前进。他们需要与政府建立密切关系，因为政府既是管理者，也是客户。他们还应认识到，革命往往在渐变中实现。要成功，除与管理者进行建设性对话外，还需要建立众多同盟。

[11]The Third Wave of the Internet is also converging with trends toward regional entrepreneurship and impact investing.The State Science and Technology Institute reports that more than threequarters of venture capital investment in 2015 went to three states: California,Massachusetts and New York.But now we’re seeing the“Rise of the Rest”: Cities across America are differentiating themselves by supporting startups.The next transformative enterprise in food systems could come from the Midwest instead of Silicon Valley.Impact investing—which focuses on purpose as well as profit—is growing, too.Investors,customers and employees increasingly want to believe in the companies that they buy from or work for.

[11]互联网第三次浪潮正在融汇地区创业和创效投资这两股趋势。美国国家科技学会称，2015年超过四分之三的风险投资流入加利福尼亚、马萨诸塞和纽约三州。而现在是“众州崛起”：各城市纷纷打出支持初创的旗帜，以求脱颖而出。在食品领域，下一个创新企业可能来自中西部而不是硅谷。同时注重利润和目的性的创效投资也在增长。投资者、消费者和员工越来越愿意信赖他们投资、消费或工作的公司。

[12]Politicians and corporate executives should be mindful that the tectonic plates of our economy are starting to shift.They should engage entrepreneurs and seek win-win partnerships, instead of simply watching them with skepticism, or, worse, trying to hobble them with regulations.As in the First Wave,coopetition3 cooperation与competition合并而成的新词，指合作的同时亦竞争。—blending competition and cooperation—will likely define the coming era.

[12]从政者和公司总裁们也应留意，美国经济的板块正开始转移。他们应该主动与企业家沟通，寻求双赢合作，而不是仅仅用怀疑的目光审视，甚至动辄拿出规定加以管束。如同互联网第一次浪潮中那样，合作竞争——竞争与合作的合体——或将决定即将来临的时代。

[13]The world is changing for all of us, and a new playbook is required.

[13]对所有人来说，世界都在改变，新的剧本亟待写就。