Digital Future May Be Just a Mirage 数字化未来或许只是海市蜃楼

译/周宏韬

Conventional wisdomhas it that1 have it (that) 断言；说。newspapers are dying as the world busily converts to digital delivery of news, information and entertainment.

普遍看法是，世界忙着转向以数字化方式发布新闻、信息和娱乐，报纸正随之走向没落。

[2]The week past has seen a number of markers on this journey.The news is grim and getting grimmer.

[2]上周见证了这一进程的诸多征兆。有关消息越来越不乐观。

But that’snot half of it2 not (the) half of仅是……的一小部分。.

然而，情况恐怕更加严重。

[3]Now it is emerging that the digital future so long foreseen by publishers may be nothing more than a shimmering mirage.

[3]出版界迄今为止所预测的数字化未来，可能不过是微光闪烁的海市蜃楼，这一点已初露端倪。

[4]Digital growth has stalled and anyway, the revenues it producesfall far short of3 fall short of 未达到（某目的）。filling the hole left by deserting print customers.

[4]数字化增长已经熄火，无论如何，它所产生的收益根本填补不了因抛弃印刷媒体客户落下的亏空。

[5]TheFinancial Timesconducted a major analysis of print media in Britain last week and reported the gloomy facts—circulations halved in the past decade; advertising dollars down by a third in the past five years, taking about$900 million out of the market, $225m of which disappeared in 2015 alone.

[5]上周，《金融时报》针对英国印刷媒体做了认真分析，并公布了其惨淡状况——过去10年发行量减半；过去5年广告收入下降三成，因此损失约9亿美元市值，仅2015年就蒸发掉2.25亿美元。

[6]There was a major casualty in Britain last week:The Independent4 英国《独立报》。2016年3月20日，出版了最后一期纸媒报纸，此后只出网络数字版。will close next month and its cut-price easy-read version,i, has been sold to a regional publisher wanting to give its local websites some national heft.

[6]上周英国损失重大：《独立报》将于下月停刊，其姊妹报——便宜易读的i已经卖给了一家地区性出版商，他们想为地方性网站增添些许全国性色彩。

[7]The gloom—and the figures—is similar in the US and Australia.Bob Peters of Global Media Analysis combed the numbers from Seven West Media’s first-half financial performance and reported that over the past five years advertising revenue for its newspaper and magazine businesses (The West Australian,New Idea) has halved, total revenues were down by one-third and operating profits were down by about two-thirds.

[7]在美国和澳大利亚，经营状况和财务数据同样惨淡。环球媒体分析公司的鲍勃·彼得斯梳理了七西传媒上半年财务业绩的数据，发现过去五年，报纸和杂志业务（《西澳大利亚人报》、《新思潮》杂志）的广告收入已减半，总收入也减少了三分之一，营业利润则锐减约三分之二。

[8]Fairfax Media last week embarked on yet another round of cost-cutting in its third editorial restructure in half a decade.

[8]上周，费尔法克斯传媒又启动了新一轮成本削减，这是它五年内第三次进行编辑架构的调整。

[9]Andrew Holden, the editor in chief ofThe Age, quit among rumours of a power shift towards Sydney—denied,as always, by chief executive Greg Hywood.

[9]《时代报》主编安德鲁·霍尔登在编辑权转交悉尼的传言中离职——当然，执行总裁格雷格·海伍德照例对此予以否认。

[10]It raises the question: other than continued cutting (which cannot go on because soon there will be nothing left to cut) what do Hywood and his silent chairman Nick Falloon have to offer to shareholders?

[10]由此引出了问题：除了继续削减（削减难以为继，因为很快就会减无可减），海伍德及对此保持沉默的主席尼克·法伦还有什么可奉献给股东的呢？

Their credibility is inthe pits5 the pits 〈俚〉最糟糕的情况。, along with revenues.

除了收益，他们的信誉现在也糟糕透了。

[11]At first glance these figures and actions merely confirm what we have known foryonks6 yonks 〈口〉很久。—there’s a big shift in the way society works and gathers its information and the day will come when it is no longer viable to print newspapers.

[11]乍一看，这些数据和措施不过印证了我们早已知道的东西——整个社会加工和获取信息的方式发生了巨变，迟早有一天，印刷报纸再也无法生存。

[12]But according to Michael Wolff,the US media guru writing inUSA Today, it’s worse than that.He reports theFTfindings and writes:“The effort to reinvent the business online—in themantra7 mantra 咒语，真言。of publishing, ‘digital is the future’—presents, if possible, an even bleaker picture.

[12]但据美国媒体权威迈克尔·沃尔夫在《今日美国》上的撰文，情况更加糟糕。他报告了《金融时报》的发现，并写道：“印刷媒体网络化的改造——用出版业的真言说，即‘数字化就是未来’——如果能实现，前景会更加黯淡。

[13]“In spite of the online world’scrowing about8 crow about 自鸣得意。advertising growth and the belief of many publishers that online ad revenue would surely replace offline,the per-view price of a digital ad continues to drop.”

[13]“线上媒体对其广告增长自鸣得意，许多出版商也深信线上广告收入必将取代线下收入，尽管如此，数字广告每次浏览的单价却在持续下降。”

This is true.

实际就是如此。

[14]Five years ago, the print to digital conversion rate was set at 18c in the dollar—in other words, where print advertising generated $1, digital ads generated 18c.Today the figure is 13c and still going down.

[14]5年前，印刷对数字换算比率设定为1美元比18美分，换句话说，印刷广告创利1美元，则数字广告创利18美分。今天，这个比率是1美元比13美分，而且还在持续下跌。

Soon the old cry of“print dollars equal digital dimes (10c)”will be true.

用不了多久，老口号“印刷媒体的美元等于数字媒体的角币（10美分）”就会成为现实。

[15]But wait, there’s more.Consum- ers are rejecting the pact implicit in the print era—that the news they want will be placed between ads.

[15]但别急，还有更多问题。消费者现在拒绝印刷时代的潜规则——他们想看的新闻总被夹在广告之间。

[16]The entire print model was built on two revenue streams—cover price9 cover price（书报杂志上的）标价。and advertising, but this cannot be replicated online.

[16]整个印刷媒体的模式建立在两项收益来源之上——按标价的销售收入和广告收入，但这种模式无法在网上复制。

[17]Fewpay walls10 pay wall付费墙，是对在线内容实行付费阅读的模式，亦作paywall。are working and those that are do notfill the coffers11 fill the coffers 字面意思是“填满金库”或“满足预算”，引申为“盈利”。.And now there are apps that work as digital ad blockers meaning that nobody ever has to see a digital ad again.

[17]付费墙模式鲜有成效，在这一模式管用的地方，那些媒体也难以盈利。如今，有了能阻止数字广告的应用软件，就意味着人们不必非得再看数字广告了。

As a result, marketers see Google and Facebook as better buys than newspaper websites or their offshoots.

因此，营销人员认为，与报纸网站或其分支相比，谷歌和脸书的性价比更高。

[18]And if that’s not enough to worry about there is evidence that digital growth is faltering, at least for some publications.

[18]如果这些还不足以让人担忧，那么，有证据表明，数字增长已经步履维艰，至少对某些出版物来说是如此。

[19]This is seen here in the latest figures provided by the newspaper’s collective emma—Enhanced Media Metrics Australia—which shows a virtual flat line for theSydney Morning Heraldand losses forThe Age,Daily TelegraphandHerald Sun.The Australianand theAFRare up, along with theNew York Timesand theFT, confirming the longheld belief that demand for quality publications will be maintained longer than general-interest titles.

[19]这从报业集体调查公司emma（澳洲强化媒体测量）的最新数据中就可以看出，数据显示：《悉尼先驱晨报》收支几乎持平，而《时代报》《每日电讯报》和《先驱太阳报》则收入下降。《澳大利亚人报》和《澳大利亚金融评论报》以及《纽约时报》和《金融时报》收入增长，由此佐证了一个长久以来的观点，即对优质出版物的需求比对通俗出版物的需求更持久。

[20]The big question that arises from this round of global analysis is that, if we accept that the life of print is limited and digital conversion will struggle to support a sustainable journalistic model,what does the future hold?

[20]这轮全球分析引出了一个重要问题：如果我们认定印刷媒体终将消亡，而靠数字化转型来维持可持续的新闻业务模式又步履维艰，那么未来靠什么呢？

[21]In my view, traditional media organisations need to forget about trying tobe all things to all people12 be all things to all people 试图讨好或适用于所有不同类型的人群（常常难以成功）。and focus on their specialties.

[21]依我看，传统的媒体机构没必要再想着讨好所有人，而应当突显自身的特色。

The old bundling model with a bit of news, a bit of entertainment, a bit of sport, a bit of opinion and a bit for womendoesn’t cut it13 not cut it 不合格，难以胜任。anymore.

那种带点新闻、加点娱乐、掺点体育、来点评论，再谈点妇女的老旧杂烩模式怕是难以为继了。

[22]Specialisation is even leading to new titles being tested—in Britain the Mirror group is to launch next month a cut-price (50c) short read, cheap and cheerful paper calledNew Day14 《新的一天》，于2016年2月29日创刊，发行9周后停刊。aimed at women.There’s also a paper aimed at interpreting the world for children.

[22]特色化甚至催生了正在试刊的新报——在英国，镜报集团下月即将为女性读者推出一份低价（50美分）报纸，名为《新的一天》，以简短、价廉和明快见长。还有一份旨在为孩子解读世界的报纸计划推出。

[23]These experiments may or may not work but in any event, they are not going to generate enough revenue to support traditional newsrooms of many hundreds of journalists.

[23]不管这些尝试是否行得通，其带来的收入都难以支撑拥有数百名记者的老式新闻编辑部。

I believe the future lies in transactional websites.

我认为未来的出路在于交易型网站。

[24]TheLondon Sunis developing a betting business that, if successful, may be exported around the globe.

[24]《伦敦太阳报》正在开发一种博彩业务，一旦成功，可能会向全球推广。

[25]The REA group, 61 per cent owned by News Corp Australia, has the lion’s share of the real estate market in Australia (in competition with Fairfax’s Domain) and is expanding offshore with businesses in the US, China, France,Germany and Italy.

[25]REA集团61%的股份由澳大利亚新闻集团所持有，在澳大利亚拥有最大的房地产市场份额（竞争对手是费尔法克斯传媒），现正向美国、中国、法国、德国和意大利扩展境外业务。

[26]Real estate advertising used to be part of a newspaper’s bundle and, in some cases, a river of gold.

[26]房地产广告过去曾经是报纸捆绑广告的一部分，某些情况下，简直就是摇钱树。

[27]Maybe in the new digital world it will becomethe tail that wags the dog15 源自the tail wagging the dog 或it’s (a case of) the tail wagging the dog尾巴摇狗（意为次要部分支配或决定全局）。with its profits keeping newspapers alive.

[27]在数字化的新天地里，房地产广告也许会喧宾夺主，其带来的收益就能养活报纸。

But who knows?

不过，谁知道呢？

It is, as ever, a work in progress.

革命尚未成功。