林业经济学科建设的思考

李周

(中国社会科学院 农村发展研究所，北京 100732)



林业经济学科建设的思考

李周

(中国社会科学院 农村发展研究所，北京 100732)

学科建设是同科学研究相联系的。狭义的科学研究是指在现有学科体系里寻求知识增量、纠正知识偏差、进行知识更新和完善知识体系的活动。广义的科学研究除狭义的科学研究外，还包括应用现有学科知识解释现实中的现象、解决现实中的问题的活动。所谓学科建设就是把狭义的科学研究中获得的新成果充实到学科体系中的活动。学科建设的任务是使学科体系更加完备、学科知识更加精准，使其能解释更多的经济现象和解决更多的经济问题，使他人能更容易地掌握和应用学科知识体系。开展学科建设，首先要制定学科建设规划，其次要组织好学科建设团队，第三要构建学科建设激励机制。中国的做法有很大的不同。比较和分析这些不同，可以获得各种各样的证据，发现各种各样的智慧，总结出各种各样的经验，抽象出各种各样的范式。学科建设规划要有阶段性、优先序和可及性，要选好团队领军人物、细化团队结构和动态优化团队，要确定学科建设任务、设置预研性课题，要做好文献综述和方法论评估，并针对学科建设中暴露出来的问题进行学科建设规划、方案、路径以及领军人物和成员的调整。

林业经济；学科建设；科学研究

2017年5月14日下午应刘伟平教授之约在福建农林大学经济学院举办的一个小型学术会议上就林业经济学科建设谈了一些想法。会后他要求我把发言整理成文。实事求是地说，作为一名研究人员，我不太清楚学科建设的准确含义；虽然学过林业经济，平时关注林业经济研究，并同林业经济学家有交往，但长期以来一直在做农业政策和农村资源环境研究，并不清楚近些年来林业经济学科建设的进展，不揣冒昧的发言肯定会有不少偏离主题和失之偏颇之处。刘伟平教授的约稿对我而言既是压力也是机会。所谓压力，是指一个较为随意的发言能不能整理成一篇较为规范的文章具有不确定性，让失之偏颇的想法在更大范围里接受更多人的评头论足要有足够的承受能力；所谓机会，就是可以花更多的时间琢磨这个问题，从而减少认识上的偏误，并力争使我的想法能在系统性、逻辑性和思辩性上有所改进。

1 学科建设的内容

1.1 学科建设的含义

学科建设是同科学研究相联系的，但并非所有科学研究都与学科建设相关。要讲清学科建设与科学研究的关系，就要对科学研究做狭义和广义的区分。狭义的科学研究，是指在现有学科体系里寻求知识增量、纠正知识偏差、进行知识更新和完善知识体系的活动。所谓科学研究只有第一，没有第二，是就狭义的科学研究而言的。广义的科学研究，除了狭义的科学研究外，还包括应用现有学科知识解释现象，解决问题的活动。所谓学科建设，是把狭义科学研究中获得的新成果充实到学科体系中的活动。虽然借助学科知识解释现象、解决问题，为验证学科知识的科学性、普适性提供新的证据的活动也很重要，但它并不属于严格意义上的学科建设。

学科建设的任务是使学科体系更加完备、学科知识更加精准，使其能解释更多的现象和解决更多的问题，使他人能更容易地掌握和应用学科知识体系。只要现有学科体系在这些方面还有瑕疵，狭义的科学研究就不会停顿下来。现有学科体系会随着狭义科学研究的发现、发明、创新和前进而不断地拓展、改进、更新和完善。

学科建设的动力来自于教师和研究人员的好奇心、责任心。无论是教师还是研究人员都应当有学科建设情结。有了这个情结就会有开展狭义科学研究的冲动，就会有争第一的追求，而不会让自己停留在讲授现有学科知识和运用这些知识研究现实问题的阶段。

1.2 学科建设的层次

1.2.1 验证

一个理论能否成为学科体系的组成部分是需要反复验证的，它能解释的现象越多，能解决的问题越多，它的科学性和普适性就越强，它在学科体系中的地位就越高。所以，特定的科学研究决不是只能做一次或只需做一次，也不是首次做是科学研究，再次做就不是科学研究。否则，中国的两弹一星、神舟系列航天器研究也不是科学研究了，认定某项成果达到国内或国际先进水平就成为无稽之谈了。研究者都是从应用已有学科知识解释现象、解决问题起步的。一个连其他人已经做出的研究成果都重复不出来的人，是不太可能做出其他人都没有做出来的研究成果的，只有天赋极高的个别人可以成为例外。验证性的科学研究需要做，也应该做，但倘若这样的研究成果没有任何知识增量，即便发表在国外顶级刊物上，也只是为已有理论与方法的科学性、普适性提供新的证据，而没有为学科建设做出贡献。所以，研究者不能只做验证性科学研究，不能一直停留在这个研究层次。

1.2.2 改进

现有的理论与方法并非没有瑕疵，并非没有拓展空间。例如，刘易斯推出的二元经济模型是可以改进的，屠呦呦做出的青篙素的纯度和药效是可以提高的，高锟发明的光导纤维是可以做产业化推进的。这是绝大多数科研人员一生的工作。袁隆平院士是其中的佼佼者。学科体系会在不断改进的过程中变得越来越完美，包括表述更简洁、概念更精准、理论更严谨、方法更有效、工具更灵巧、用途更广阔，等等。具体地说，改进有质疑、改善、更新和拓展4个切入点。

1.1.2.1 质疑

做学问的人一定要有质疑意识，而不宜总是采取全盘接受的态度。例如，我在云南下乡期间，一名上海知青在栽橡胶苗时未按照橡胶树栽植技术规程的要求将橡胶苗的嫁接处置于背风面，而是将它置于迎风面。由于采用这种栽植方式的橡胶树长势更好，于是农场进行了较大规模的对比试验。结果表明，将嫁接处置于迎风面的橡胶树的长势显著好于将嫁接处置于背风面的橡胶树的长势。由此得出广东(当时包括海南)垦区为应对台风而总结出的橡胶树栽植技术规程并不适合于没有台风影响的云南垦区的结论。再如，我在学习政治经济学这门课时，对生产资料生产优先增长规律有异议。理由是：假如生产资料生产增长总是快于消费资料生产增长，那么生产资料产值占社会总产值的份额就会越来越大，生产单位消费资料所需的生产资料就会随着时间推移变得越来越多，两大部类的关系就一定会失衡。我的质疑经历了三个阶段。最初认为，既然生产资料生产优先增长规律是建立在演算基础上的，倘若把消费资料生产增长更快、消费资料生产与生产资料生产增长一样快等其他结果演算出来，便能以生产资料生产优先增长不具有唯一性来否定这个规律。演算结果表明：上述三种情形都能成立；所不同的是，生产资料生产增长更快时资本有机构成提高较快，消费资料生产增长更快时资本有机构成提高较慢，生产资料生产与消费资料生产增长一样快时资本有机构成提高速度介于它们之间(这篇文章发表在《经济科学》1981年第2期上)。这种质疑方式显然有局限性。针对演算方法的不足，我利用所学的计算机知识编了一个程序，就生产资料生产增长快于消费资料生产增长的状况能否保持下去进行模拟。程序设计的原则是：生产资料生产增长必须快于消费资料生产增长，为了尽可能长地保持这种状况，生产资料生产增长只要略快于消费资料生产增长即可。结果表明：在步长保持不变的情形下，维持这一状态所需迭代的次数一年比一年多，最多能维持22年，由此得出生产资料生产增长更快只能维系一段时间而无法长期持续下去的结论(这篇文章发表在《中国社会科学》的内刊《未定稿》1983年第11期上)。生产资料生产优先增长规律肯定是根据观察到的经济现象概括出来的，而不是凭空想象出来的，所以接下来要回答的问题是：生产资料生产优先增长究竟是哪个发展阶段的特有现象？我通过经济史的研究给出了解释：在工业化之前，人类的经济活动以生产消费资料为主。这个阶段即便生产资料生产增长更快，也会因为它占社会总生产的份额太小而难以被识别出来。在工业化时期，生产资料生产迅猛增长，其占社会总生产的份额快速增大成为显而易见的现象。生产资料生产优先增长规律显然是根据这个阶段的经济现象概括出来的。工业化完成后，第三次产业迅猛发展，虽然生产资料生产仍在增长，但它占社会总生产的份额趋于下降，生产资料生产优先增长的命题就不成立了。因此得出结论：经济发展的过程是产业结构高度化的过程，生产资料生产优先增长是产业结构高度化第一阶段的经济现象，这种经济现象会随着产业结构高度化第二阶段的到来而消失，将特定阶段的经济现象称之为规律显然是不适宜的(这篇短文发表在《经济研究》1987年第7期上)。

1.2.2.2 改善

中国林业科学研究院的邵青还研究员介绍过国外的船迹理论。该理论的主要含义是：虽然特定森林的经营都会瞄准特定的目标，但实际上不仅能得到目标效应，还会得到一系列其他效应。鉴于船迹理论的概括不够直白，我就建议将其概括为更便于理解的旁侧效应理论。

1.2.2.3 更新

龙泉码价表是计算杉原条价格的工具。它的计量单位是码两，创立于17世纪30年代。这种根据眉高围(距杉原条大头1.7米处的围径)和木材长度两个指标计算杉原条价格的方法在中国南方木材市场上沿用了数百年。中国林学家认为它虽然是世界上第一个二元木材材积表，但因该表中的码两与材积的误差会随着杉原条的增大不断递增而于1954年将它弃之不用。为什么龙泉码价表中的码两和材积的误差会随着杉原条材积增大而递增？为什么这种木材价格计算方法会在木材市场上连续使用300多年？为什么龙泉码价表的编制同60根长短不同的丝线有关？我用287根眉高围和材长不同的杉原条的数据对这三个问题进行了研究，结果发现：用最小二乘法和杉原条数据做出的回归方程表明，龙泉码价表要解决的是不同规格的杉原条材积的可加性问题，而不是木材材积计算的问题，即龙泉码价表中的码两并不是杉原条的实际材积，而是可比性材积。码两随着实际材积增大不断递增，是为了体现大材大价的原则。这是龙泉码价能在木材市场上沿用数百年的主要原因。有关文献都提到龙泉码价表是用60根长短不一的丝线做出来的，却无人考证60根丝线与龙泉码价表的关系。我在网格纸上画各种规格杉原条的眉高围与单位材积码两值的曲线时发现，倘若将60根丝线看作是网格纸上的网线，就可以作出假设：龙泉码价表的创始人采用坐标系的方法，通过调整60根丝线的长度寻找一条反映各种规格杉原条眉高围与单位材积码两值关系的平滑曲线。龙泉码价表的创始人郭维经父女在1630年代用坐标系方法研究龙泉码价，同笛卡尔(1596-1650)提出坐标系方法在时间上是很相近的。笛卡尔采用坐标系方法只是弄清了相对位置，郭维经父女采用这种方法找到了计算可比性材积的办法，解决了不同规格木材的材积不宜简单相加的问题，显然是非常了不起的。中国林学家将其视为一般的二元木材材积表的认识是有偏差的，必须加以更新。

1.2.2.4 拓展

林毅夫讲过他在1980年代初去农村调查时经历的一件事：他看到一个人骑着新的自行车过小溪，又看到一个人扛着旧的自行车过小溪。经询问，新车是公家的，而旧车是个人的。这个观察和调查可以说明产权私有的重要性。出于好奇，我利用住在镇里做调查的机会，在一条可以骑自行车过的小溪边做观察和调查，发现过小溪确有骑车过和扛车过的不同做法。观察到的68个人没有骑公车的，但有9人骑别人的车。骑自己车的，36个是骑过去的，23个是扛过去的，骑过去的大多是较旧的车，扛过去的大多是较新的车。骑别人车的，1个是骑过去的，8个是扛过去的。由于样本小，难以做出骑扛做法与车的新旧的关联性。这个观察和调查的启示是：大多数人借用自行车时会爱护他人的产权，这是借用自行车的做法能延续下来的重要原因。人的行为差异可以从产权视角分析，也可以从素质视角分析。素质低的人的用车行为可能会因车的产权不同而异，素质高的人的用车行为可能不会因车的产权不同而异。所以，产权保护可以从明晰界定产权入手，也可以从提高人的素质入手。

关于传统农户是否具有风险规避偏好，最初采用叙述偏好的方法来论证。具体的做法是：请农户在风险小、收益相对较低和风险大、收益相对较高的资源配置模式中做选择。我觉得这个问题也可以采用显示偏好的方式来论证。具体的做法是：将农户种植的作物分为收益相对较低的粮食作物和收益相对较高的经济作物，然后对山西省中阳县的360多个农户的2 000多块地的作物配置进行分析，结果发现好地大多种植收益相对较低的粮食作物(玉米)，差地大多种植收益相对较高的经济作物(向日葵)。由此也得出了传统农户具有风险规避偏好特征的结论。

1.2.3 原创

原创是指从无到有，即发现和发明。例如，发现一个至今为止无人知晓的物种，发明用于测树的角规。刘易斯的二元经济理论，高锟的光纤通讯理论，都属于原创性理论。这是所有科研人员都想做的事。中国做了很多原创性的事情，我们应该珍惜这些成果，比如龙泉码价，而不应对它们采取不屑一顾的态度，心甘情愿地跟在其他国家的后面亦步亦趋。

学科建设的原创强调的是第一次，包括第一次提出一个新概念、翻译一本林业经济学著作、发表一篇研究特定问题的论文或出版一本研究特定问题的专著、整理一篇专门论述特定问题的文献综述、编撰一本特定专题的论文集、撰写一本系统完整的教材，等等。

原创并不是高不可攀的。例如，针对人们都接受的资源分为可再生资源和不可再生资源的分类方法，我提出了物质可分为资源和能源的分类方法。根据物质不灭定律，只要投入足够的能源，所有资源都是可再生的。这个分类方法的意义是：第一，把工农业生产统一起来了，即它们都是利用能源生产产品和价值的过程，所不同的是农业依靠流量性能源即太阳能进行生产，工业利用存量性能源即薪炭、煤炭、石油、天然气等进行生产。第二，只要能源供给具有可持续性，所有资源供给都具有可持续性。辐射到地球上的太阳能总量是足够大的，倘若通过光电、光磁、光热转换的技术创新提升太阳能的能级、转换效率并降低转换成本，使之能与化石能源竞争，能源供给就具有了可持续性。这是实现可持续发展的一个基石。第三，越来越多的不可再生资源随着技术进步都再生出来了，越来越多的可再生资源却灭绝了，所以要实现可持续发展必须保护生物多样性。这是实现可持续发展的另一个基石。

1.2.4 升级

哲学有古典哲学和现代哲学之分。古典哲学重视解惑，提倡我思故我知；现代哲学重视质疑，提倡我思故我不知。古典哲学可以用上帝悖论(假如上帝只能创造其背得动的山而创造不了其背不动的山，那么上帝就不是万能的；假如上帝能创造其背不动的山而他又背不动，那么上帝也不是万能的)来解释，现代哲学可以用死亡悖论〔人在未死之前无法感知何为死(至今为止，包括心跳停止、呼吸消失和脑死亡，都是人给出的死的定义。现实中出现起死回生现象，说明这些定义是有缺陷的)，死了以后又无法表达何为死〕来解释。经济学不像哲学那样深奥，但学科体系也需要升级。按照我的理解，林业经济学科体系的升级可能会表现在3个方面。

1.2.4.1 从木材可持续供给提升到生态服务可持续供给

最初的林业经济学以木材采运为中心，它的劳动对象是自然生态系统，除了追求利润最大化外，还追求天然林经营区内木材可持续产量的稳定性。它与农业相比有显著的独特性。近百年来，木材生产出现了速生丰产林和工业人工林对天然林的替代，它的劳动对象转为人工生态系统，它同农业的相似性提高，独特性下降。近些年尤其是今后，随着森林生态服务的重要性变得越来越高，它不同于农业的独特性会再次增强。面对如此显著的变化，林业经济学科建设必须与时俱进，从森林的木材可持续供给提升到森林的生态服务可持续供给，舍此就无法应对需求的变化。

1.2.4.2 从学科进展提升到学科展望

从纵向看，过去学科知识具有很强的稳定性，学科建设的重点是以选而不评、述而不作的方式梳理学科发展的历史沿革。现在学科知识的递增性越来越强，学科建设的重点是评述、甄别学术研究成果，把握学科体系进展。今后学科建设的重点可能是论述学科体系中的瑕疵和不足，为学界指明研究攻关方向，领引林业经济学科发展。

1.2.4.3 从中国数据提升到中国范式

中国作为一个发展中国家，学科建设要分三步走。第一步是中国证据阶段，即采用国际上最好的理论、方法和工具研究中国问题，使中国的林业经济研究尽快达到国际先进水平；第二步是中国经验阶段，即用规范的方法将源于中国林业实践上升为一般经验，对学科知识体系进行扩展。第三步是中国范式阶段，即在归纳和演绎中国经验的基础上进行概念创新、模块创新和模式创新，凝练出中国研究范式。这是一个循序渐进的过程，也是一个相互交织在一起的过程。

1.3 学科建设的意义

1.3.1 甄别知识增量

学界的最新研究进展分散在最近出版的学术刊物、专著和教材中，其中哪些是知识增量，应该充实到学科体系之中，需要通过学科建设这个制度化的平台进行评价和甄别。学科建设不仅要定期地做，而且还要有公布评估结果的学术渠道，才能确保评价与甄别的公正性、完整性、精准性、权威性。

1.3.2 把握学科前沿

每个人的精力都是有限的，擅长又有很大的不同，很难独自把握整个学科的研究前沿。通过学科建设这个制度化的平台，借助于群体的力量把握整个学科的研究前沿，就可以最大限度地优化学术创新的环境，让所有人都能用较少的时间了解学科研究进展，让所有人用更好的理论、方法和工具去研究现实问题。

1.3.3 提高教学质量

中国林业经济学科招收的学生总量非常之多。开启这些学生的智能，提升这些学生的本领，需要从很多方面入手，提高教学质量是其中的一个环节。学科建设是从整体上提高林业经济教学质量最为重要的措施。作为教育工作者，有责任把最好的文献筛选出来，把握好学科研究前沿，为学生攀登学术高峰提供阶梯。

2 学科建设的基本途径

2.1 立足本土

2.1.1 引进国外论著方式的学科建设

中国林业科学的学科建设最初走的是由学子出国留学，学成后把经典教材或专著引入中国的路子。中国林业经济学的学科建设有所不同，走的是邀请苏联专家来中国举办研究生班和教师进修班的路子。该阶段的学科建设缺乏本土化的视角，尚未认识到中国实践在学科建设中的不可或缺性。

2.1.2 博采众长方式的学科建设

20世纪80年代中后期，雍文涛老部长组织了一项研究。大家都知道该课题的最终成果是中国林业出版社出版的《林业分工论》这本专著。其实，雍部长做这件事的初衷是他不满意看过的林业经济学论著，想组织一批年轻人以博采众长的方式编写一本林业经济学。我的大学同班同学徐智和我有幸参加了他的秘书王前进组织的讨论。我们阅读了可查阅的教材、专著和论文，分别画出了苏联、美国、德国、法国和中国若干本林业经济学教材和著作的结构图，在比较和综合的基础上拿出了一个自以为博采众长的林业经济学框架，为林业经济学科建设做了一点力所能及的工作。虽然雍部长的初衷因课题由务虚转为务实而没有实现，但以博采众长的方式推进林业经济学科建设的想法是他率先提出来的。近些年来出版的林业经济学教材，大多都采取了这样的方式。

2.1.3 本土化方式的学科建设

理论创新必须基于实践，只有来源于实践，才能指导实践。所谓本土化就是基于中国实践。前面已经指出，中国林业经济学科建设要由中国证据阶段走向中国经验阶段和中国范式阶段。寻求中国证据必须源于中国实践，总结中国经验也必须源于中国实践，归纳中国范式还必须源于中国实践。离开了中国实践，中国林业经济学科建设就是无源之水、无本之木。

从表象上看，中国实行的是大一统的体制，甚至大家的说法都有极大的相似性。然而，我们决不要被这种表象所迷惑。中国的林业是世界上参与实践人数最多，实践做法也最多的国家。我们不能对这个富矿熟视无睹，更不能视而不见。其实，你深入林区就可以发现，各个地方和各人的想法和做法有很大的不同。从中可以找到各种各样的证据，发现各种各样的智慧，总结出各种各样的经验。只要下功夫做，从中概括出中国经验，抽象出中国范式决不是天方夜谭。最近我去农村同农民讨论绿水青山就是金山银山这个话题。浙北山区的农民告诉我，他们那里几百年来甚至几千年来都是绿水青山，但直到上海游客纷纷来到这里以后，才真正感受到它们变成了金山银山。这种变化实际上是绿水青山由发展第一产业的基础转为发展第三产业的基础带来的，所以更为准确的表述应该是经济发展会使绿水青山变成金山银山。我们学林的人往往以为青山必然带来绿水。江西的农民告诉我青山绿水是两个概念。他们通过植树造林、封山育林使荒山变成了青山，但有了青山并不一定就有绿水。要拥有绿水，必须治理畜禽养殖污染、种植业面源污染和工业企业点源污染。这两个例子表明：只有从实践中归纳出来的理论才能经得起实践检验，所以了解实践是学科建设不可忽缺的环节。

2.2 更新知识

为什么经济学诺贝尔奖会被其他学科的科学家获取？最主要的原因是经济学家具有极大的包容心，另一个原因则是很多经济学家不愿放弃已有的理论和方法，不愿越雷池一步。也就是说，总是凭借已有的知识认识问题、解决问题，而没有知识更新的视角，理论、方法和工具创新肯定是不彻底的，学科建设肯定是不彻底的。例如，不少学者完全沉迷于产权私有化、资源配置市场化，以为把这两件事情做好了，所有问题都会迎刃而解。简略地说，至今为止的经济发展经历了供给不足、需求不足、滞胀风险和生态危机4个阶段。在不同的发展阶段，发挥主导作用的经济理论和经济政策是明显不同的。

供给不足阶段的主要应对措施是提高劳动生产率。劳动生产率的提高可以从激发劳动者的内在动力、提高劳动者的劳动技能和对劳动者施加外在压力等方面入手。最简单的提高劳动生产率的办法是划小基本生产单位。这是基本生产单位由原始公社转为家庭的重要原因。虽然基本生产单位由原始公社转为家庭极大地提高了劳动生产率，但并没有消除供给短缺问题。最简单的提高劳动者的劳动技能的办法是分工，包括工序分工、产品分工和地区分工。劳动的分工、劳动者技能的提高和各地区资源比较优势的发挥，极大地提高了劳动生产率，但仍然没有全面消除供给短缺问题。最简单的对劳动者施加外在压力的办法是引入竞争机制。劳动者的竞争、企业的竞争和地区的竞争，促进了劳动者潜力的释放，促进了技术、组织和制度的创新，促进了内部规模经济和外部规模经济的形成，但仍然没有全面消除供给短缺问题。实际上，供给不足问题的解决是划小生产单位(或私有化)、细化劳动分工和促进充分竞争三位一体共同作用的结果。

1930年代，以供给全面过剩为特征的经济危机的爆发，是需求不足成为经济研究的主要问题的标志性事件。经济学家发现，有效需求不足是由投资倾向递减、消费倾向递减和居民持币偏好造成的。应对这些问题的主要措施是：从增加具有乘数效应的公共品入手提高私人投资效率，减缓投资倾向递减规律的影响；基于低收入群体的消费倾向高于高收入群体的消费倾向的事实，从调节收入分配入手让低收入群体得到更多收入，减缓消费倾向递减规律的影响；基于居民缺乏稳定的收入预期是其形成持币偏好的主要原因，从构建社会保障体系入手降低他们防范未来收入风险的必要性，减缓居民持币偏好规律的影响。这些措施确实刺激了投资和消费需求，使出现该问题的经济体保持了约30年的稳定增长。

1970年代又出现了经济停滞和通货膨胀交织在一起的问题。经济学家认为，滞胀风险是税负过重导致投资与消费不足、福利过多导致就业意愿不足和垄断过强导致工资和物价刚性上涨等因素造成的。应对这些问题的主要措施是：减轻税赋，刺激投资与消费；减少政府干预，让市场机制发挥决定性作用；削弱工会和大公司对劳动力市场和商品市场的垄断，制止工资和物价轮番上涨。这些措施的实施有效地消除了滞胀风险对经济稳定性的冲击。

生态危机是人们只关注自己的欲望而不关注自然的需求，只计算经济资本的增量而不计算自然资本的减量，只向生态资本索取而不向生态资本投资等造成的。应对这些问题的主要措施是：以闭环的再生产体系替代开环的再生产体系，实现资源再利用，确保污染排放总量低于环境容量；以可再生的绿色能源替代不可再生的化石能源，确保能源的可持续供给；以包括经济系统和生态系统的核算体系替代单一经济系统的核算体系，确保经济总价值和生态总价值的双增长。

简言之，以家庭为基本生产单位或私有化是人们最早做出的选择。正是这一措施远远不够，才孕育出越来越完善的经济理论和经济政策。如果时至今日仍把它作为包治百病的灵丹妙药，显然有失之偏颇之嫌。其实，改革中形成的知识也需要更新。中国采用的是渐进式改革战略。这种改革有两个特性，一是不断拓展改革，二是不断深化改革。就此而言，坚持已有的改革做法永久不变的理念是有问题的。中国总体上已经进入发达国家的门槛。中国东部地区的表现会更好一些。我们不能总以极不发达的发展中国家的视角思考问题。例如，基于有偿获得集体资产股权的制度安排形成的如何增如何减的改革经验，替代基于集体产权无偿获得的制度安排形成的土地承包经营权生不增死不减的改革经验，具有客观必然性。同理，在资源配置方面必须让市场机制发挥决定性作用，但不宜据此否定政府干预的必要性。限于篇幅，这里就不展开了。

2.3 创新方法

经济学家编了很多自嘲的笑话。其中一个笑话是：一个经济学家、一个物理学家和一个化学家同时被困在一个无人烟的孤岛上，身边除了罐头什么都没有。怎样把罐头打开充饥呢？物理学家的想法是找一块大小适宜的石头把罐头砸开，化学家的想法是找一些柴烧火，利用热胀冷缩原理使罐头崩开，经济学家的想法是假设有一把起子就可以把罐头撬开。经济学家的想法看似先进却完全没有可行性，物理学家和化学家的想法看似落后却具有可行性。另一个笑话是：经济学家在路灯下找钥匙，路人发现他一直找不到便问他钥匙掉哪里了？经济学家说掉在黑暗处了。路人感到很困惑，于是问经济学家，既然钥匙掉在黑暗处，你为什么在亮处找呢？经济学家的回答是只有亮处看得见。钥匙掉在黑暗处，即便提高路灯亮度(改进方法)也是找不到的；拿一个电筒(常规方法)到黑暗处找方能找到。简言之，经济学家决不要热衷于提出貌似先进却完全没有可行性的方法，更不要想当然地以为先进方法能解决数据粗糙或不足等问题。

经济学最早采用叙述方法。经济学家的主要工作是按照事先设计的逻辑框架叙述看到或发生的经济现象，并做出一些总结性评论和(或)经验性预测。现在的调查报告、文献综述等仍然采用这种方法。由于这些评论和预测主要基于主观推断，而不是对不可观察因素的分析，所以并不是真正的定性分析。

鉴于叙述方法的局限性，经济学推出了定量分析方法。经济学家的主要工作是按照统计学的要求设计样本框、确定样本量和选择抽样方法，然后用统计学或计量经济学方法分析经整理的调查数据，弄清经济变量之间的关系。这种分析调查对象的特征、资产和资源拥有量和具体收支情况的方法也有局限性，因为在现实中不仅观察到的因素之间可能有相关性，观察到的因素与观察不到的因素之间也可能有相关性。

要克服定量分析的局限性，还要分析观察到的因素与观察不到的因素之间的相关性，这才是真正的定性分析。简略地说，分析骑车人行为和自行车产权这两个都能观察的因素的关系属于定量分析，分析能观察到的骑车人行为和观察不到的骑车人素质这两个因素的关系属于定性分析。

经济学除了叙述方法、定量方法、定性方法外，还有悟性方法。研究者凭借叙述、定量、定性方法得到的研究结果能对经济决策提供信息充分的支持，但决策者通常不会直接把研究者的决策建议作为决策，而会用自己的悟性方法进行决策。所以，不宜简单地把研究方法划分为定性和定量两类，更不宜把研究中形成的决策建议等同于决策。

我不厌其烦地介绍各种方法的含义，就是希望大家能在正确的方向或轨道上进行方法选择和创新。

2.3.1 林业经济研究对象需要改进

历史上和现实中的林业经济学是围绕着木材可持续生产展开的。它最为关注的是蓄积量、生物量和产品产量，这当然是一个知识体系。但是，森林经营正在由资源经营转为生态系统经营。面对森林经营转型，林业经济学科体系也要转型。所以，从长期看，林业经济学很可能会围绕着森林生态系统可持续经营展开，它更关注的将是森林功能、森林景观和生态服务的可持续。这个知识体系是什么，显然是非常值得研究的。

2.3.2 林业经济研究方法需要改进

为什么历史最悠久的生物科学会被其他学科超越？因为生物科学在很长时间里一直沿用经验科学方法，而力学和物理学、化学很快就采用了实验科学方法。林业经济学科的发展要赶上其他学科的发展，必须要用实验科学方法替代经验科学方法。

2.3.3 林业经济研究数据来源需要改进

林业经济研究是从两两比较开始的，现在进入用历史数据推演未来的阶段。走捷径的人直接用统计资料推演，勤奋的人用合乎统计学要求的农户和企业调查资料推演。这些都是有道理的。需要提醒大家的是：现在已经进入大数据时代，所有活动都留有记录或痕迹。如果能够利用大数据平台不断地将新的数据纳入研究之中，不仅大数据可以得到及时和充分利用，而且经济学研究的方法论会有重大突破。

3 如何组织学科建设

学科建设是风险投资，没有达到预期目标是很正常的，时时处处都达到预期目标才是很不正常的。我们一定要摈弃讲成绩夸夸其谈说问题闪烁其词，既欺骗别人也欺骗自己的陋习。诸如学科建设这种谋事在人、成事在天的事情，最需要做的事情就是把它精心组织好，而不是用最华丽的语言把它的结果包装好。

3.1 要有学科建设规划

根据我的观察，不少高校和科研机构都用外部考核替代内部考核的办法。只关注老师和研究人员发了多少篇论文，发在什么等级的刊物上，而不太关注这些成果同学科建设有什么关系。一些老师和研究人员热衷于做凭借已有知识就能做成的事情，脑子里完全没有学科建设的思考。就此而言，制定学科建设规划作为构建有效的激励机制和适宜的考核机制的基础性工作，有助于引导大家心往一处想，劲往一处使，因而是非常必要的。

3.1.1 学科建设规划要有阶段性

学科建设不可能一步登顶，它必须循序渐进。从纵向看，可以按照中国证据、中国经验和中国范式的逻辑制定分阶段的学科建设规划。通过分阶段规划的实施，实现分阶段目标。不过，将学科建设任务机械地分为各自独立的三个层次显然是不适宜的。更适宜的做法是把三个层次的目标视为一个整体，在此基础上做重点有所不同的学科建设规划。即第一阶段以第一层次目标为重点，第二阶段以第二层次目标为重点，第三阶段以第三层次目标为重点，逐步实现目标的高度化。

3.1.2 学科建设规划要有优先序

可以按照最可能做的工作、最需要做的工作和最值得做的工作的逻辑确定学科建设的优先序。这个优先序既可以是特定团队的工作的优先序，也可以作为团队内部和不同团队工作分工的依据，如第三梯队的人优先做最可能做的工作，第二梯队的人优先做最需要做的工作，第一梯队的人优先做最值得做的工作。这只是一个粗线条的描述，现实中的学科建设活动一定会更加丰富多彩。

3.1.3 学科建设规划要有可及性

学科建设必须按照跳起来够得着的原则确定拟达到的目标。站着甚至坐着也能达到的目标显然不是适宜的目标，跳起来也够不着的目标也不是适宜的目标。学科建设规划最为重要的工作是首先进行可及性和可行性分析，然后针对既可及又可行的目标制定实施方案，并把工作细化到人，措施细化到人，时间细化到年。舍此，学科建设就有可能停留在纸上谈兵阶段。

3.2 要有学科建设团队

虽然每个人都有最擅长的地方，但最擅长的并不都是做学科建设，擅长做学科建设的人不一定是表态最积极的人。表态最积极的人又不一定是擅长做学科建设的人。如何把现实中最适宜做学科建设的人识别出来，是学科建设最为基础也最为重要的工作。

3.2.1 选好领军人物

组建学科建设团队的关键是确定最适宜做学科建设的领军人物。学科建设领军人物的主要工作有三：一是根据学科建设规划制定学科建设实施方案。二是在专心聆听每个人的演讲、细心阅读每个人的论著和精心做好同每个人交流的过程中发现每个人擅长之处，在此基础上选择适宜的人组成团队，并把学科建设方案中的具体活动落实到人。三是对学科建设的进程和每个人的工作进行评估。

3.2.2 细化团队结构

团队成员的年龄段分布要相对均匀，这是保持学科建设稳定性和持续性的必要条件；团队成员的学历结构要有较强的层次性，这是保证各种工作都有适宜的成员承担的必要条件；团队成员的知识结构要有很强的互补性，这是开展协同攻关的必要条件。最为重要的是团队里既要有思想者，又要有执行者，而不能都是思想者或都是执行者。

3.2.3 动态优化团队

流水不腐、户枢不蠹。学科建设团队也是如此。要使学科建设团队一直保持活力，团队领军人物及其成员必须要有流动性。要以招标制的方式对团队领军人物和成员进行动态优化，终身制不可取，轮换制(轮岗制)也不可取。任何团队都会有优化空间。以动态优化的办法拓展这个空间，是克服人才短板对学科建设制约的重要途径。

这件事情说起来容易做起来难，但它是一件必须要做的事情。否则，就无法将学科建设规划落到实处。

3.3 要有学科建设机制

3.3.1 启动机制

万事开头难，学科建设也是如此。首先，要按照学科建设规划确定拟开展的学科建设任务。其次，要针对特定的学科建设任务设置预研性课题。每个预研性课题要在规定时间里完成文献综述并提出方法论。第三，对文献综述和方法论进行评估。两个评估都通过了，特定内容的学科建设方能启动。虽然按照“草鞋没样，边打边像”的理念，也能以不断纠偏的方式慢慢聚焦到核心问题，但良好的开端是成功的一半，在正式启动前做好充分准备，是非常必要的。

3.3.2 评估机制

学科建设计划启动后，要做定期和不定期的评估。看看学科建设在哪些方面有进展，哪些方面没有进展；哪些成员做得比较好，哪些成员做得比较差；哪些经验可以推广，哪些问题需要解决，等等。科学研究能不能出成果既有必然性，也有偶然性。所以学科建设评估最重要的是评估所做选择在方向上是否正确，所做工作在学术上是否有潜在价值，所做努力能否从成果量、工作量上体现出来，而不宜简单地用成果乘以发表刊物影响因素得出的成果总分进行排序。这些看得见的因素的评估也很重要，但又要防止宽泛的学术导向对特定的学科建设的干扰。

3.3.3 调整机制

任何学科建设规划都不可能完美无缺，而且它的缺陷会随着时间推移暴露得越来越充分。所以，评估既是为了肯定成绩、增强信心，更是为了发现识别偏差、规划偏差、工作偏差和寻找改进途径。所谓调整，包括学科建设规划、方案和路径调整，以及学科建设的领军人物和成员调整。

21世纪，中国不仅将成为世界上最大的经济体，而且最为丰富的改革实践将会概括出能够解释更多经济现象的理论和范式。中国现在是世界上研究林业经济的专业人员最多的国家，按照人的平均素质基本相似的人口学规律，中国理应有条件提出并达到林业经济研究范式创新的学科建设目标。

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.001

Research on the Problem of Under-Forest Economic Development in Key State-Owned Forest Areas：Taking Yichun as an Example

MA Mingqin1，ZHENG Desheng2

(1.Department of Forestry Economics，Yichun Forestry Cadre School，Yichun，Heilongjiang 153000 China；2.Periodical Office of China Forestry Economy，Northeast Forestry University，Haerbin 150040 China)

Original Articlein马明芹，郑德胜．重点国有林区林下经济发展问题研究：以伊春为例 ．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：1-9．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.002

Under-Forest Economic Development Promoted the Economic Transformation of Forest Region？Take Heilongjiang State-Owned Forest Area for Example

WANG Yufang，GUO Juan，ZHOU Mei，LI Jue，ZHAO Mingxin

(College of Economics and Management，Northeast Forestry University，Harbin 150040 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——With the implementation of Natural Forest Protection Project，the economic transformation of state-owned forest areas in Heilongjiang province has entered a new stage．In recent years，with the strong support of the state and local governments，the development of the under-forest economy in the state-owned forest in Heilongjiang Province has achieved some success．The economy of state-owned forest areas in Heilongjiang province has experienced rapid growth，which drive the growth of economic transformation of state-owned forest areas．However，does the development of under-forest economy continuously promote the complete transformation of the economy of state-owned forest areas in Heilongjiang province？

⑵ Methods——This paper based on time series data about the development of under-forest economy and economic transformation of state-owned forest region in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2015．Established the VAR model base on Eviews 6.0 to test the co-integration relationship and analysis of dynamic response between under-forest economic development index and economic transformation index．Meanwhile，variance decomposition was used to test the contribution rate between the development of under-forest economy and the economic transformation of state-owned forest area．

⑶ Results——In this paper，the research results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the development of under-forest economic and economic transformation of state-owned forest areas from 2000 to 2015．The development of under-forest economy has a certain role in promoting the economic transformation in state-owned forest．Analyzing the contribution rate which were collected from 4 industries，the biggest one is the forestry tourism and leisure service industry and its contribution rate is 35.45%；the second one is non-wood forest products manufacturing industry and its contribution rate is 2.07%；the third one is forest planting and mining industry and its contribution rate is 0.84%；the last one is the forest park and its contribution rate is 0.18%．In addition，the contribution of under-forest economic various industrial development to the economic transformation of state-owned forest areas is different．In order to realize the rapid success of the economic transformation in state-owned forest areas，state-owned forest areas need to abandon the timber harvesting and production to make full use of under-forest resources，meanwhile，state-owned forest areas should open up different ways and methods to speed up and promote the economic transformation of state-owned forest．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Through the analysis，it is concluded that the development of the under-forest economy has a certain effect on the economic transformation of the state-owned forest area in Heilongjiang province．The promotion effect is the order of the forest tourism and leisure service industry，the non-wood forest product processing and manufacturing industry，underground planting and forest parks．Above all，this paper suggest that：in the short term，the state-owned forest area in Heilongjiang province can develop the under-forest economy through forestry tourism，leisure service industry，the non-wood forest product processing，manufacturing industry，etc．The connotative development need to develop in the state-owned forest area．The less contribution to the economic transformation of the state-owned forest areas can not be ignored and must to rational use and development of other industries in the under-forest economy，while the state-owned forest areas need to vigorously introduce advanced technology and a large number of useful talents，to improve the state-owned forest industry value to speed up the economic transfer proposal．

Key words：under-forest economic；economic transformation；contribution；VAR model

Original Articlein王玉芳，郭娟，周妹，等．林下经济发展促进了林区经济转型吗？以黑龙江省国有林区为例．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：10-16．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.003

Farmers’ Income Diversity and Its Influence on Forestland CirculationWillingness：An Empirical Study Based on Qingyuan County

SI Yaweia，LI Mina，b

(a.Economic and Management College，b.Post Doctoral Research Center of AgriculturalResources and Environment，Shenyang Agriculture University，Shenyang 110161 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——With the increasing degree of openness in China，the diversification of farmers’ production activities and the diversification of income sources are becoming increasingly prominent．In the process of changing farmers’ income pattern，the value and understanding of the land would inevitably change．Land transfer is one of the important ways to realize large-scale operation，promote income，collect urban and rural areas．Farmers’ income diversity have an impact on the forest land circulation behavior of farm．Therefore，it is necessary to study the impact of income diversity on forest land circulation．

⑵ Methods——Research methods of this paper include literature review method，field investigation interview method，statistical analysis method and econometric analysis method．Method of the random sampling was used to investigate farmers including 219 household in Qingyuan country of Fushun city．Building a theoretical framework of farmer forest land circulation to explore the impact of farmers’ income diversity on the transfer of forest land from an empirical perspective．Based on the cross analysis of farmers’ income diversity level and willingness of forest land transfer，this paper puts forward the theoretical analysis framework and research hypothesis，and establishes the Logit model of forest land circulation to carry on empirical analysis．

⑶ Results——The rate of forest land circulation from sample farmers is low．The willingness of circulation is weakly，the circulation is not standardized，and the awareness of forestry policy is low in the process of forest land circulation．There were significant differences in the status of households’ forest land transfer desire in different regions．In the cross analysis of farmers’ income diversity and the willingness of forest land circulation，the results show that there is no difference between the farmers who with the willingness of land transfer and the farmers who without the willingness for the index of single income diversity．For the comprehensive index，farmers’ willingness is significantly lower than the farmers who do not have the willingness to transfer forest land．In terms of frequency or probability，the willingness of farmers with single income to forest land circulation is higher than those with various sources of income．In the econometric analysis of farmers’ income diversity and willingness to transfer land，the age of the head of household，the number of non-agricultural jobs，the number of forest land，and the degree of difficulty in obtaining the mortgage are negatively affected the willingness of forest land circulation．Whether the head of the household is a party member，the number of cultivated land and the acquisition of harvesting indicators are positively affected the willingness of the farmers’ forest land circulation．With the improvement of household income diversification level，the probability that it will be transferred to the forest land will become smaller，and this effect is mainly reflected in the transfer model．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——This paper propose 3 following recommendations in order to promote the circulation of forest land and realize the moderate scale economy of forest land：Firstly，government should improve rural infrastructure and attract young people return home to start business．Secondly，government should rational distribution of cutting indicators on the basis of controlling the logging targets strictly，and encourage them to carry out specialized production biased in favor of new business entities．Finally，government should encourage farmers to carry out specialized production and continue to train new business entities．

Key words：farmer；forest land circulation；income diversity；Logit model

Original Articlein司亚伟，李旻．农户收入多样性及对林地流转意愿的影响：基于辽宁省清原县的实证．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：17-22．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.004

Performance Evaluation of State-Owned Forest Farm in Inner MongoliaBased on Three-Stage DEA Model

ZHENG Jie1，FENG Yan1，DAI Yongwu2

(1.School of Economics & Management，Beijing Forestry University，Beijing 100083 China；2.School of Management，Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University，Fuzhou 350002 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——As an important part of China’s forestry management entity，state-owned forest farms play a fundamental and irreplaceable role in improving China’s natural environment and improving the level of economic development，which is of great significance to the realization of national forestry modernization and the construction of ecological civilization．However，due to a variety of reasons，China’s state-owned forest farms in the operation of long-term business performance and other issues．Therefore，it is necessary to make an objective and accurate evaluation of the performance of China’s state-owned forest farms，and provide realistic and theoretical reference for the reform of state-owned forest farms in China．

⑵ Methods——Data is mainly from Inner Mongolia Forestry Statistical Yearbook which is published by the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Forestry Department in 2015．Based on the three-stage DEA model，the production efficiency of 57 state-owned forest farms in 57 counties of Inner Mongolia was measured and analyzed．

⑶ Results——The production efficiency of state-owned forest farms in Inner Mongolia is influenced by environmental factors such as ecological location，traffic infrastructure，institutional environment and human capital．The better the ecological location，the more abundant the human capital of the state-owned forest，will help reduce the relaxation of its inputs；Improvements in the transport infrastructure will result in a reduction in the number of employed workers and the wasteland of forest land，while the improvement in investment in fixed assets and silvicultural production is not significant；The improvement of the institutional environment is conducive to improving the number of employees in employment，fixed assets and silviculture production，and the improvement of investment in forest area is not significant．After eliminating the environmental and stochastic factors，the comprehensive technical efficiency of the vast majority of state-owned forest farms has improved，the scale efficiency has also increased，but the pure technical efficiency has declined，the scale of the state to the decline in the scale of the main decline．Inner Mongolia state-owned forest farm as a whole the level of production efficiency is still low．From the spatial distribution situation，the comprehensive technical efficiency，pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency distribution of state-owned forest farms are basically the same，which shows that the efficiency value of the eastern region is relatively high，while the efficiency value of the central and western regions is relatively low．The state-owned forest farms with diminishing returns on scale show the spatial agglomeration effect，while the state-owned forest farms with increasing returns to scale are spatially distributed．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The ecological location has a significant effect on the efficiency of the state-owned forest farms．Institutional environmental factors are an effective means to motivate the enthusiasm of employees．The improvement of infrastructure not only requires the investment of state-owned forest farms，but also requires strong financial support from local or central government．The improvement of infrastructure is necessary to improve the performance of state-owned forest farms．For the “double high” state-owned forest，it is necessary to optimize the allocation of resources in all aspects to achieve the further improvement of the efficiency of state-owned forest farms，and for the existence of scale efficiency and low efficiency of state-owned forest farms，we should strengthen the short board to increase the state-owned forest management level，the transformation of state-owned forest farms inefficient situation．

Key words：Inner Mongolia；state-owned forest farm；production efficiency；three-stage DEA model

Original Articlein郑洁，冯彦，戴永务．基于三阶段DEA模型的内蒙古国有林场绩效评价研究．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：23-29．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.005

A Preliminary Study on the Development of Shareholding Family Forest Farm

LI Linsen1，WANG Yizhuo2，ZHANG Xurui3

(1.School of Accounting，Xijing University，Xi’an 710123 China；2.Department of Modern Service Management，Hebei Institute of Building Materials Technology，Qinhuangdao，Hebei 066004 China；3.School of Economics and Management，Northwest A&F University，Yangling，Shaanxi 712100 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Accelerating the fostering of new forestry management main body is necessary to change the way of forestry development．The effective way to promote the healthy development of modern forestry is taking the single-family households or households as a unit and then achieving the large-scale and intensive forest management and forest resources commercialization of the family forest．So the study of accelerating and promoting the development of shareholding family farms would be a subject worthy of further study．

⑵ Methods——Base on the method of literature analysis，this paper combed the fundamental sequence of origin and development of family forest，and explored the nature and characteristics theoretically of family forest farm．Then，exploring the family forest farm practically accorded to the actual research case．

⑶ Results——The mainly impacts of the shareholding system on the development of modern forestry are behaved in 3 aspects：the use of forest land resources and forest wood resources，land transfer and the construction of family forest farms．It can be concluded that shareholding family forest farm can combine the various types of forest land resources，formulate a unified plan and maximize the capabilities of forest land by analyzing the actual case．In meanwhile，implementing shareholding family forest farm can centralize the scattered forest wood resources，operate professionally and with large-scale，and then achieve the maximum value of forest resources market．The form of shareholding system allows the farmer to obtain the ultimate ownership of the share warrant and forest right certification．Consequently，implementing shareholding system in family forest farm would increase the farmers’ willingness of land circulation and the sense of participation．The internal organization system of shareholding family forest farm can not only ensure the decision-making efficiency of family management，but also allow investors to participate extensively．In this way，the investors can improve their enthusiasm and the decision-making accuracy．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The shareholding family forest farm，as an effective combination of capital combination to gain significant scale merit，applies the effective management of industrial management model to manage forestry．Implementing shareholding family forest farm would greatly improve the efficiency of forestry development．The shareholding family forest farm leads a modest scale of operation and breaks through the strength of modern forestry development and the management system of the innovative forestry．This paper propose some policy recommendations for developing shareholding family forest：Firstly，government should trumpet the shareholding system to family forestry farm in order to promote and raise farmers’ awareness；Secondly，government should support the cultivation of new forestry management main body and expand the typical sample of shareholding family forest；Thirdly，government should clear the relevant laws；Finally，government should carry out new business experimental sites for operating the forest management．In addition，different regions of the forestry production functions and industrial management would result in different needs and ways of establishing shareholding family forest farm．So shareholding family forest farm should be implement in different functional areas of forestry，such as the collective forest area in the south，the state-owned forest area in northeast China and the public forest area in the northwest public welfare forest．Partitioning method will make research more targeted and make suggested measures more specific．

Key words：shareholding system；family forest farm；modest scale；main body of new forestry management

Original Articlein李琳森，王毅卓，张旭锐．股份制家庭林场发展初探．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：30-34．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.006

Study on the Development Level of County’s State-Owned Forest Farms： Taking Hebei Province as an Example

WANG Meili，CHEN Wenhui

(School of Economics and Management，Beijing Forestry University，Beijing 100083 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——The state-owned forest farms play an important role in the construction of ecological civilization．With the promotion of forestry status and the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region，it is meaningful and urgent to estimate the development level of state-owned forest farms in Hebei province．Because the regional distribution differences of forest resources， state-owned forest farms are mostly located in remote districts or mountainous areas，this research，focusing on the overall development of state-owned forest farms from the county level，can not only help researchers further understand regional differences about forest farms development，but also provide a way to explore development characteristics of regional forest farms．

⑵ Methods——From the perspective of forest sustainable development，a county-level index system，aiming to determine the development level of state-owned forest farms，is set up，covering the target layer，system layer，index layer three levels of infrastructure．The index system includes 5 aspects，which are infrastructure condition system，self-development potential system，forest resource status system，social contribution system，economic development system，and 23 indicators．The data used in this paper come from the state-owned forest database．Based on index system and data，weights are designed by methods of expert scoring and entropy weight．Furthermore，the indexes are also processed by improved efficacy coefficient method and the total efficacy coefficient is calculated by linear weighted evaluation method to make sure the results are more reliable and valid．

⑶ Results——On the whole，the average development score of state-owned forest farms in Hebei province is 63.845，while the number of excellent forest farms is small．Therefore，demonstration forest farms with modern forest management need to set up in order to drive the forest farms’ development．Notably，the self-development potential system in these five aspects is the most ideal，with the score of 77.072，which shows that forest farms have great development potentials．Under the impetus of the reform of the state-owned forest farms，the workers’ wage and social insurance have been guaranteed，and the development potential of the forest farms will be further improved after the financial input and the stability of the forest get promoted．However，the social contribution system and the score relatively of forest resources status system are low，which suggests it’s necessary to improve the quality of forest resources to perform ecologically and socially in a better way．From a regional perspective，there is a significant difference in the scores of state-owned forest farms among different counties with a score range of 26.573．It is necessary to develop the demonstration function of the forest farm system，strengthen the exchange of forest farm management experience，and promote the coordinated development of the region．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——In conclusion，this paper studied the overall development of state-owned forest farms in Hebei Province from the county level，and applies the state-owned forest database’s data，revealing certain practical significance and innovation．Although the study of index system is relatively complete and scientific，and applied in most of Hebei state-owned forest farms，this research still has the following problems：On the one hand，the application of efficacy coefficient method can only relatively estimate the development level of state-owned forest farms in Hebei Province，but not evaluate it from the absolute sense；On the other hand，the system can only be used to calculate the development level of the ecological public welfare state-owned forest farms，but not the commercial forest farms．All these problems are needed to be further studied．

Key words：state-owned forest farms；index system；county；efficacy coefficient method

Original Articlein王美力，陈文汇．县域国有林场发展水平测定研究：以河北省为例．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：35-40．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.007

Forest Tourism Development is Integrated into National Forest CityConstruction Research：Take the City of Ji’an in JiangxiProvince as an Example

ZHANG Ying

(Tourism and Air Services College，Inner Mongolia University for Nationalities，Tongliao，Inner Mongolia 028000 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Urban forest play an important role in urban ecosystem and it is an important organic carrier of urban ecological service function．Through scientific planning and development of urban forest，taking forest resources as an important carrier，a comprehensive optimization of urban tourism layout has become a sustainable goal for city．Based on the background of establishment of national forest city in Ji’an city，this paper makes a scientific evaluation of forest city construction and puts forward relevant countermeasures to develop the urban forest tourism．

⑵ Methods——Based on the relevant evaluation criteria and norms of the national forest city construction，the base statistic data which came from statistical yearbook data，China knowledge network database，forest resource inventory data，wetland resource survey data，wild animal and plant monitoring data，urban development planning and so on were used to evaluate the status of green space，the status of urban wetland resources，the status of biodiversity conservation，ecological footprint，etc．

⑶ Results——The urban green area of Ji’an city is 34.88 million m2；the greening area is 39.00 million m2；the green area of the park is 10.49 million m2；the rate of green land is 37.6%；the rate of green coverage is 42.1%；and the per capita park green space is 11.4 m2．Above-mentioned indexes are achieved the basic conditions for the creation of national forest city．The total area of wetlands in Ji’an city is 676.33 million m2and the wetland rate is 2.7%．Besides，the protected area of wetland is 234.53 million m2and the protection rate of wetland is 34.7%．There are more than 4 000 kinds of plants and over 1 000 species of wild animals in Ji’an city．Moreover，the construction of various nature reserves provide a good habitat for various animals and plants，and the establishment of various nature reserves play a great significance role in the construction of national forest city．Through the evaluation of ecological footprint，ecological deficit per capita of various land types are expressed in the order of descending：fossil energy land，cultivated land，grassland，water area，construction land．And the forest land is in surplus．Construction of national forest city could significantly improve the quality of urban ecological environment，optimize the urban ecological space structure，etc．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The results of this study show that the integrity and systematization are absent from the urban green space system in Ji’an city．Firstly，the planning of urban green space system does not combine closely with urban landscape，tourism resources and ecological culture．In addition，the comprehensive function of urban green space system and city comprehensive service function and contribution has not been fully reflected．Secondly，urban green space systems fall short of the conservation of biodiversity，landscape diversity and species diversity．Finally，the countermeasures for the development of forest tourism are put forward according to the background of national forest city construction：it is necessary to build a number of forest tourism demonstration destinations，perfect a number of forest tourism demonstration facilities，develop demonstration sites and enhance forest tourism service system project．In the process of creating national forest city，Ji’an city needs to rely on the construction of large urban data platform，integrate scientifically into the polity，ecology，economy，culture，society and other elements of science，so as to construct an urban and rural ecological network system，and ultimately to achieve construction goals of being national forest city．

Key words：forest city；wetland resources；urban green space；construction evaluation；forest tourism

Original Articlein张颖．森林旅游业发展融入国家森林城市建设研究．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：41-45．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.008

Research on Content Validity in Recreation Value of Forest Scenic Spots Using Contingent Value Method：A Case Study of National Forest Park in Fuzhou

DING Zhenmin，HUANG Xiujuan，ZHU Jiajia

(School of Management，Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University，Fuzhou 35002 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Contingent value method(CVM)is an evaluation method based on virtual market for the value of public goods，but researchers lacked trust to the validity of CVM，so the accuracy of its assessment results is the focus of widespread controversy．Content validity，as an important aspect of CVM validity，aims to examine whether the question in the questionnaire can represent the content or subject remaining to be measured．Protest payment，which use for measuring interviewees’ understanding degree of questionnaire content，has gradually became one aspect of the research on the content validity of CVM．To some extent，protest payment can judge the content validity of CVM，when the authentic protest payment could be identified through effective methods and the probability of inconsistency of response to related question in the questionnaire could be determined．

⑵ Methods——This paper designs 3 non-protest payments of discrimination conditions．If each of the discrimination conditions can identify different type of “zero payment” and not be affected by other key variables，the type of“protest payment”can be identified well to some extent，and we can judge the content validity of CVM on assessment of forest recreation value．The Multinomial logistic model was applied for identification and inspection of protest payment，and then it was the logistic model that was made use of reasonable forecast about it based on the sample with only “zero payment”collected just at evaluation recreation value of scenic forest using CVM．

⑶ Results——The results showed that the types of “zero payment” can be effectively identified by the key variables and not be affected by other key variables．So we can infer that the content of the questionnaire can be well understood by the tourists and there is no indication that the visitors response questionnaire inconsistently for the majority．CVM has good content validity in the evaluation of the recreation value of Forest Scenic spot from a certain perspective．Individual characteristics of tourists have different effects on the payment of protest such as income，distance，sex and age．In the Logit model，the level of income has a significant positive impact on the level of “protest payments” at 10% significance level，because the high income earners bear more tax compared with others，and take it for granted that the government should pay for the improvement of the environment in forest park．Distance plays a negative impact on “protest payments” at 5% significance level，namely the closer to the forest park，the easier to choose to “protest payment” for tourists．But the correct probability of prediction of is 69.4% using logistic model which point out that the important factors that influence the protest payment remain to be further identified and verified．In terms of content validity，CVM can be introduced into the evaluation of recreational value of forest scenic spots，but other validity of CVM should also be considered．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Although we never deny that CVM has good content validity in the evaluation of the recreation value of Forest Scenic spot from a certain perspective，there are some improvements in the design of the questionnaire though our research．Therefor we can make the following improvements to the questionnaire according to the results of the study．In the course of the design of the questionnaire，we can design the “tax rate” or “tax amount” option，which is used to judge whether the deep reason of the protest payment for high income earners due to their sensibility to personal income tax．

Key words：contingent value method；forest scenic spot；recreational value；sample of non-payment；protest payment；Multinomial logistic model

Original Articlein丁振民，黄秀娟，朱佳佳．CVM在评价森林景区游憩价值内容效度的检验：以福州国家森林公园为例．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：46-50．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.009

Forest Right Mortgage，Credit Constraint and Farmers’ Credit Availability：Based on a Static Game Model

JIN Yinliang

(1.College of Economics and Management，Nanjing Forestry University，Nanjing 210037 China；2.Taizhou College，Nanjing Normal University，Taizhou，Jiangsu 225300 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Forest right mortgage is an important measure to enhance the level of forestry management，promote the efficiency of forestry management and increase the income of farmers．As a small-scale farmers，the credit transmission mechanism is not perfect，the risk of forestry management is high，so the credit constraint which simply using the forest resources as the mortgage is difficult to improve．And most banks have set up stringent conditions on forest mortgages，thus common farmers still obtain loans difficultly．

⑵ Methods——Assuming that the participated subjective is rational，the information is complete，the obtaining process has no cost and the delivery procedure is full and correct，thus the objective function of bank consider the security of the loan in order to maximize the benefits．The income function of forest farmers is to obtain loans．If the assumed conditions meet the requirements，the game could be balanced(lending，repayment)．In the single-stage game model，banks can not raise interest rates to obtain high returns．Therefore，banks are forced to develop a lower level of the interest rate and select the forest farmers with better credit in order to encourage them to invest the loans into forestry．In the dynamic and repeated game，the speed and quality of information transmission has been further enhanced，banks and farmers will form a long-term cooperative relationship．

⑶ Results——Banks and other financial institutions put limitations on forest farmers loans in order to reduce their own business risks．If without interest rate control，banks can not refuse forest farmers(low credit level)to apply loans by increasing interest rates．So this practice would enhance the reverse selection and moral hazard．Forest resources can be used as collateral，which could improve the information transmission mechanism and credibility of forest farmers，reduce the level of credit constraints，but it must be built on the corresponding policies issued by government and other institutions．The effect would not be obvious if they simply rely forest resources as asset collateral to ease credit constraints．The paper makes certain definitions of forest mortgage and credit policy，weather they belong to the market behavior or welfare behavior．If they belong to the market behavior，we should focus on increasing the quantities of rural financial products that supply to small and medium financial institutions，designing credit products，controlling interest rates and so on．In addition，we should define the threshold set for rural small and medium financial institutions and liberalize the interest rate market．If they belong to welfare behavior，we should improve the loan mechanism especially the micro-loans system and emphasize the inclusive and non-profitability of micro-loans．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The rural financial market needs improvement in scale，convenience and the ability of monitoring．The conditions of loans that applicable to enterprises may not be able to develop in the rural market．However，compared with the urban areas，the social nature of rural acquaintances have increased the quality and speed of transmission of some information．Therefore，it is possible to construct a group loan model，with the core of social capital，which builds on the funds organizations and credit guarantee institutions of banks and cooperation between credit and loans．Therefore，it would alleviate the credit constraints of rural financial markets．The government’s role in the credit market can not be ignored．The government should continue to play a role in the provision of public resources such as forest resource assessment，evaluation，forest fire insurance，forest road， and so on．If we transfer part of the risks that beard by the banks and other financial institutions to government departments，it will strengthen the willingness and encouragement of the supply of bank credit resources．

Key words：forest rights mortgage；credit constraint；credit availability

Original Articlein金银亮．林权抵押、信贷约束与林农信贷可得性：基于一个静态博弈模型的分析．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：51-54．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.010

Policy Evolution and Prospects of China’s Policy Forestry Insurance：Based on the Central Document of No.1

LI Wenhui，ZHANG Liangang

(School of Economics and Management，Southwest Forestry University，Kunming 650224 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Forestry is an important industry for national economy，but it is full of risks at the same time．In China，forestry insurance began to pursue in 1982．Forest is the protective object for forestry insurance，meanwhile，forest is a quasi-public object with external effects．If the market of forestry insurance was only adjusted by means of the market economy condition，the phenomenon of market failure would be appeared．Therefore，the government needs to intervene and give certain subsidies for forestry insurance．So policy forestry insurance appeared in China．

⑵ Methods——This paper analyzed the achievements of policy forestry insurance by means of collecting and arranging the documents．In addition，in order to realize the rapid development of forestry，based on the perspective of central document of No.1，this paper combed the contents from 13 central documents of No.1 and found out the tendency of China’s policy forest insurance．

⑶ Results——In China，the central document of No.1 which related to policy forestry insurance was recorded in 2004．The contents about policy forest insurance on the central documents of No.1 mainly involve the following aspects．Firstly，the government should expand the scope of premium subsidies．From 1982 to 2016，forest insurance policy had mainly reflected in 3 aspects included the scope of subsidies keep on expanding，the increasing subsidies in Midwest China and the increased forest insurance subsidies by encouraging all levels of governments．Secondly，the policy forestry insurance has adopted the approach of pursuing policy forest insurance after setting pilot．Policy forestry insurance had developed rapidly from 2009 to 2016 with the No.1 central document implemented and the related policy guided，which promoted the implementation of policy forestry insurance．Thirdly，the government should explore the establishment of catastrophe risk diversification mechanism．From 2007 to 2016，the contents about the establishment of catastrophe risk diversification mechanism on the central documents of No.1 had mainly reflected in 2 aspects which included established the reinsurance system of forestry insurance，and a catastrophe risk diversification mechanism which was established by governments at all levels subsidizing forestry insurance．Finally，the government should explore mutual insurance．The application of mutual insurance in forestry make the common interest relationship among members form a mutual supervision mechanism．This mutual supervision mechanism would help to prevent the occurrence of moral hazard and adverse selection，and cut the information cost and supervision cost．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Some policy implications are derived in this paper．Firstly，the government should strengthen the construction of information sharing mechanism．It can take corresponding preventive measures to protect the forest resources and the interests of forest farmers．Secondly，the government should strengthen the construction of supporting measures of policy forestry insurance such as technically training organization，forestry exploration organization，etc．Thirdly，the government should perfect the subsidy policy of forestry insurance in 2 aspects included compensated costs of insurance companies，expanded the scope of subsidies．Finally，the government should perfect the mechanism of catastrophe risk dispersion．The effective dispersing mechanism of catastrophic risk should disperse the pressure of catastrophic risk losses and promote sustainable development of forestry．

Key words：policy forest insurance；the central document of No.1；policy evolution

Original Articlein李文会，张连刚．中国政策性森林保险的政策演进与展望：基于中央“一号文件”的政策回顾．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：55-59．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.011

Policy Recommendations of Break through Barriers to ForestryFinance Development in China

DING Jianchen，ZHAO Dandan

(University of International Business and Economics，School of Banking & Finance，Beijing 100029 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Forestry has 5 functions，includes ecology function，economy function，society function，carbon sink function and culture function．The experience of domestic and abroad shows that forestry financial service is the essential for developing forestry economy．At present，there are many problems in forestry finance in China，such as lack of system，institutional bias，shortage of funds，limited financial tools and low quality of service，which have seriously affected the development and progress of forestry．So it is very urgent to put forward relevant policy recommendations．

⑵ Methods——Based on both the theory and data analysis，this paper introduces main barriers to the forestry finance development in China．From the perspective of institutional economics，this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations to develop China’s forestry finance．The research data mainly comes from forestry development reports released by the State Forestry Administration of the People’s Republic of China．

⑶ Results——Firstly，the ability to serve the real forestry economy is limited．The funds needed for the forestry tending was 450 billion yuan in 2009，but the shortage of funds for agriculture and forestry was about 200 billion yuan．The funding gap for forestry tending，ecological protection，and forestry stability construction is huge．Secondly，forestry finance has congenital weakness which result in difficulties in attracting social investment．The weakness of forestry finance mainly includes the shortage of forestry financial institutions，the lack of forestry financial tools，and the abnormalities of forestry financial market．The forestry finance is seriously disengaged from the forestry economy．Thirdly，the defects of forestry financial system design are obvious．Since the financial system in New China was constructed with the center of rural land reform，and the support from government for forestry finance is less．Fourthly，the operating targets of forestry financial institutions have been deviated．There is a vacancy in specialized forestry financial institutions for a long time，in meanwhile，a large number of relevant financial institutions withdrawn．Fifthly，the environment of forestry financial market steadily deteriorated．The foreign investment in forestry industry is 6.369 billion yuan，accounting for only 0.87 percent of the foreign direct investment．Up to July 2016，there are merely 3 forestry companies listed of the top 30 listed agriculture，forestry，animal husbandry and fishery companies．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——This paper puts forward the policy recommendations for the development of China’s forestry finance．Firstly，innovation of forestry finance system in China should be accelerated．The innovation measures for forestry finance system include strengthening the basic work of government on the transfer payment to forestry finance，and establishing fair and inclusive forestry financial system．Secondly，the project of policy forestry financial construction should be started．So the government should promote the policy forestry insurance pilot，improve the forestry financial trading environment，etc．Thirdly，in order to effectively reduce the risk of banking and forestry investors，the government should improve anti-risk ability of forestry enterprises and farmers．Fourthly，the government should deal with the relationship between ecological protection and the interest of forest farmers with establishing the compensation mechanism of ecological protection，and reasonably compensating the rights of forestry owners．Fifthly，the government should actively set up the forestry development fund in China．Based on the successful experience of foreign countries’ forestry development，it is necessary for China to actively set up the forestry development fund to improve the allocation efficiency of forestry resources under the background of market economy，which is by all means to promote the healthy and sustainable development of forestry．

Key words：forestry finance；barriers；policy recommendations

Original Articlein丁建臣，赵丹丹．突破中国林业金融发展壁垒的政策建议．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：60-62．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.012

Status and Characteristics of China’s Wooden Forest Products Trade Development

ZHANG Shaobo，TIAN Minghua，YU Haoliang，HU Mingxing，WANG Chunbo，LIU Yi

(School of Economics and Management，Beijing Forestry University，Beijing 100083 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——With the increasing economic development，China has became a major countries of wooden forest products trade in the world．Mastering the developmental status and characteristics of China’s wooden forest products trade are propitious to work out relevant industry policy and trade policy．

⑵ Methods——The data for this paper were main from China Forestry Development Report 2016 which published by State Forestry Administration and FAO Yearbook of Forest Products 2014 which published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO)．This paper analyzed the trade actualities and characteristics of China’s wooden forest products through the methods of comparative analysis，concentration ratio，net barter terms of trade，etc．

⑶ Results——Based on the data of China’s wooden forest products trade，China’s wooden forest products trade has the following characteristics．Firstly，the annual growth rate of wooden forest products imports and exports in China from 1993 to 2015 are 12.52% and 18.45% much higher than in world．Secondly，the scale of wood forest products import and export in China are large and account for a high proportion in the world．Thirdly，China’s wooden forest products trade has undergone a process from a trade deficit to a trade surplus．The trade surplus began to expand in 2008 and reached $8.883 billion in 2014，then rose to $14.636 billion in 2015，which shows fairly large compared with other countries．Fourthly，importing raw materials and exporting manufactured goods are obviously characteristics of China’s wooden forest products trade．Fifthly，the product structures of import and export are highly concentrated．The imports of wooden forest products in China were mainly paper pulp，round wood，sawn wood，recovered paper，paper and paperboard．The products of paper pulp，round wood，sawn wood，recovered paper，paper and paperboard accounted for 90.46% of the total imports of China’s wooden forest products in 2015．The exports of wooden forest products in China were mainly furniture，paper and paperboard，woodwork，plywood and fiberboard．The products of furniture，paper and paperboard，woodwork，plywood and fiberboard accounted for 98.11% of the total exports of China’s wooden forest products in 2015．Sixthly，the market structures of import and export are also concentrated at a relatively high level．The top 5 import trade partners(included the United States，Canada，Russia，Brazil，Indonesia)for China accounted for 50.15% of total imports，and the top 5 export trade partners(included the United States，Japan，Hong Kong，Britain，Australia)accounted for 48.22% of total exports in 2015．Seventhly，due to the price of imported products rising，the terms of import trade tends to deteriorate．The import products as wood pulp，round wood，sawn wood，recovered paper account for 80.72% of total imports in 2015．Meanwhile，due to the value of export products reducing，the terms of export trade tends to deteriorate．Products with low added value，such as furniture，plywood，fiberboard，account for 54.77% of total exports in 2015．Products with deteriorating terms of export trade，such as furniture，plywood，fiberboard，paper and paperboard，accounted for 86.23% of total exports in 2015．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——China should appropriately control the trade growth rate and trade scale of wooden forest products，and pay attention to the trade balance of wooden forest products．The current mode of processing trade should be changed，because the profits were very little and China was accused of destroying the world’s forest resources．China should improve the domestic supply of timber resources，and scatter the supply channels of imported timber．The import and export product structure and market structure also should be optimized．The quantity competition and price competition should be replaced with the quality competition and brand competition．China should take the connotation development path with benefit first．

Key words：wooden forest products；international trade；processing trade；product structure；market structure

Original Articlein张少博，田明华，于豪谅，等．中国木质林产品贸易发展现状与特点分析．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：63-69．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.013

Impact of Countervailing Duty Investigation and Antidumping Duty Investigation on Chinese Wood Flooring Exports Enterprises：An Empirical Analysis

JIANG Hongfei，CHEN Yong

(Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information，Chinese Academy of Forestry，Beijing 100091 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Since 2010，the US initiated countervailing duty(CVD)investigation and antidumping duty(AD)investigation of wood flooring from China．AD/CVD laws are administered jointly by the US International Trade Commission and the US Department of Commerce．Since 2010 until the paper release，the investigations have gone through the process of prosecution，filing，preliminary ruling，verification and arbitration，administrative review，etc．The final determinations for total duties rate for the first time issued in October 2011 is below 5%，while the following results of annual review of total duties rates alleged from July 2015，doubled compared with results of 2011 and kept upward trend．

⑵ Methods——In this paper，a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model，the Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP)model and GTAP Database were used to simulated the unfavorable impact for Chinese wood flooring producer after the duties rates alleged，such as the increase in cost of production．Based on standard GTAP static model，four scenarios like 5%，10%，15% and 20% increase of the duties rates alleged on Chinese wood products were simulated．

⑶ Results——The simulation results show that，the duties rates alleged can lower the Chinese domestic prices of wood products to reduce the supply of Chinese wood products to the US，cause China unfavorable trade balance with US．As the higher level of the duties rates alleged，the more negative effect of shocks on the export，the domestic production and the prices of Chinese wood products kept downward trend．When the duties rate reach 20%，it can effectively reduce the exports，the domestic production and the domestic prices of Chinese wood products by 8%，17% and 0.6%，and can lower the American import of Chinese wood products by 1.8%，Chinese trade deficit with US can reach 9.4 billon USD．After the analysis of comparison between the decline in margin of Chinese domestic production and Chinese export based the same level of duties rates alleged，the simulation results indicated the China rely the most on trade with the US．Since China and the US as the largest developing country and developed countries in the world，and as the largest two trade bodies in the world in addition to the European Union，the change of the behavior of production and consumption between the two countries could also have a deep global impact．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Because of the low brand awareness and serious product homogeneity in a part of Chinese wood flooring exports enterprises，even lack of sustainable profitability，and some profit growth of enterprises depends on state financial support or price support like the export tax rebate，they can easily become the target or object of CVD and AD investigations．It was suggested that based on a better understanding on the determinants international trade rules，Chinese wood flooring producers should pay attention to the value of products and brand innovation，enhance the competitiveness of products，meanwhile they should establish a due diligence system and keep the supply chain of legality and traceability in response to the similar trade investigations，then the trade relationship of wood products between China and US could become more free and active．

Key words：CVD and AD investigations；wood flooring；the United States；GTAP model

Original Articlein蒋宏飞，陈勇．中国输美木地板企业遭遇双反调查的影响实证分析．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：70-73．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.014

Heterogeneous Factors from Family Effect Tea Oil Purchase Behavior of City Residents

LU Sulan1，HUANG Peifeng2

(1.College of Economics，Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University，Fuzhou 350002 China；2.School of Management，Fujian University of Technology，Fuzhou 350118 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Social basis and demographic characteristics of tea oil(CamelliaoleiferaAbel.)purchasing，teaoilisoneofthemainwoodyplantsedibleoil，hascausedwideconcerninscholars．Currentresearchresultsaboutteaoilpurchasingstilllackofrepresentationandpersuasion．Teaoilisusuallypurchasedbyhouseholdslikeasotheroils，butinalongtimefewresearchpaidattentiontotheimpactoffamilyheterogeneityonteaoilpurchasebehavior．

⑵ Methods——Independent-sample T-test，variance analysis and Scheffe multiple comparison procedure were adopted to analyze the data of field survey．The data was collected from household questionnaire surveys on tea oil purchase behavior in Guangzhou，Changsha and Fuzhou by the research group which following the significant research subject“Demand and Supply Change Investigation on Main Woody Grain and Oil”issued by State Forestry Administration in 2015．Restricted by various factors，the research group has to select Changsha，Fuzhou and Guangzhou 3 city from 14 provinces to carry out household surveys on tea oil purchase behavior．

⑶ Results——Analyzing the effect of heterogeneous factors from family on tea oil purchase behavior，the results suggest that 4 factors as number of family members，severe illness history，whether there are 60 or above elderly people in the family and the education level of the main purchasers in the family have no obvious difference in tea oil purchase behavior；and 5 factors as whether there are children under 12 years old in the family，the age of family purchaser，gender of family purchaser，family income and family types have significant difference in tea oil purchase behavior．The method of Scheffe multiple comparison procedure was used to further analyze the effect of heterogeneous factors from family on tea oil purchase behavior．The results show that there is significant difference between gender and purchase behavior．Women were more likely to choose tea oil than men．The reason for this phenomena is probably that women are mainly responsible for the daily life in Chinese family，they would spend more time in collecting food information，pay more attention to the price of oil and the nutrition level，makes women more likely to choose to tea oil．The mean value of oil consumption in residents of different ages was a inverted U-shaped distribution where groups of 31 to 40 years old and 41 to 50 years old more favored tea oil．The principal reason for this phenomena is that the group of 31-50 years old is the groups of highest income，and most of them have children that they would more concern about their children’s health．Family type showed significant differences in tea oil purchasing．The ratio of multi-generation family in tea oil purchasing was significantly higher than families of three，families of two and those living alone．Compared with residents with higher income，families with per capita annual income less than 5 000 yuan and between 5 000 yuan and 10 000 yuan were less likely to buy tea oil．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Tea oil purchasing behavior shows family feature with obvious Chinese characteristics．To master these family feature would help tea oil relevant enterprises to develop and carry out marketing strategy，publicity and education to families especially focusing on multi-generation families．Because multi-generation families pays great attention to their children’s health，and their strong purchasing ability were strong，so they were the main group of tea oil purchasing．Relevant business management should implement targeted marketing plan and support．Moreover，women as well as the group of 30 to 50 years old should not be neglected．

Key words：heterogeneous factors from family；city residents；tea oil；purchases

Original Articlein卢素兰，黄培锋．家庭异质性因素对城市家庭茶油购买行为的影响．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：74-80．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.015

Impacts of the Aging Labor Force on Technical Efficiency of BambooProduction

YANG Shuisheng1，XU Xiuying1，2，FU Jiaoyan1，XU Jinhan1

(1.School of Economic and Management，Zhejiang A&F University，Lin’an，Zhejiang 311300 China；2.Rural Development Research Center of Zhejiang，Lin’an，Zhejiang 311300 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——With the acceleration of urbanization process in China，structure of rural labor force has undergone tremendous changes．The accelerated outflow of rural youth labor force result a large number of old labor force engaged in agricultural production in rural areas．The aging of labor force has an important influence on the development of rural economy．So it is necessary to improve forestry production technical efficiency through clarify the relationship between the aging of labor force and forestry production．

⑵ Methods——This research selected bamboo as the object of research，people above 60 years old as an indicator of the aging of labor force and 6 administrative villages in Anji County as the study area．Then 120 households were selected for questionnaires in July 2015，and 101 valid questionnaires were got．Among the valid questionnaires，243 bamboo plots were surveyed in detail．Subsequently，the translog stochastic frontier production function was measured by frontier software．This research discussed the following questions：Firstly，whether the aging of labor force affecting the bamboo production technical efficiency or not？Secondly，what are factors affecting the bamboo production technical efficiency？

⑶ Results——The results of likelihood ratio hypothesis testing imply that：The Cobb-Douglas production function is not suitable for this research，and the bamboo production technical efficiency changes were affected by some environmental variables．According to the results of the translog stochastic frontier production function，the input of labor factor，land factor and capital factor had a significant positive influence on the output of bamboo．Bamboo output capacity per unit area with high in Anji County，but there exists excess labor with the increasing labor input and capital use degree are not high．The error of stochastic frontier production function model was aroused mainly by technical efficiency loss，and the output elasticity of labor factor，land factor and capital factor were 0.249 2，0.358 9，0.252 8 respectively．According to the result of technical efficiency model，the bamboo production average technical efficiency was only 66.68%．If the elimination of technical efficiency loss，the bamboo production technical efficiency had 33.32% of the room for technical efficiency enhancement．Because of the aging effect of labor force exceeds the empirical effect，the aging of labor force had a significant negative influence on the bamboo production technical efficiency．In control variables，the proportion of bamboo income to total household income，family labor scale and the bamboo land was leased had different degrees of significant positive impact on the bamboo production technical efficiency；the number of bamboo plots had a significant negative impact on bamboo production technical efficiency．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——To summarize，3 suggestions are proposed referring to stimulate and improve the production efficiency in bamboo sector．Firstly，local government should actively guide farmers to increase capital investment in bamboo production so as to allocate bamboo production factors rationally．And extend the bamboo production chain，improve bamboo production technical efficiency so as to increase farmers’income．Secondly，local government should encourage farmers to transfer forestland in order to reduce the fragmentation of bamboo forestland and realize the scale of forestland management．Lastly，local government should increase the human capital investment of rural labor force and strengthen technical training for farmers’bamboo production，establish and improve rural social security system．

Key words：aging labor force；technical efficiency of bamboo production；trans-log stochastic frontier production function；Anji county

Original Articlein杨水生，徐秀英，符椒燕，等．劳动力老龄化对竹林生产技术效率的影响．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：81-87．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.016

Reflections on the Discipline Construction of Forestry Economy

LI Zhou

(Rural Development Institute，Chinese Academy of Social Sciences，Beijing 100732 China)

Abstract

⑴ Discipline construction goes hand in hand with scientific research．In a narrow sense，scientific research refers to explore increments of knowledge，correct understanding bias of knowledge，update knowledge，and improve and perfect the systems of knowledge within an existing discipline system．In a broad sense，scientific research in further refers to explain the phenomena and solve the problems in the real world by using the existing discipline knowledge．In terms of discipline construction，it is the activities to add the new understanding and achievements obtained from the scientific researches into the discipline system．The task of discipline construction is to perfect the discipline system，to precise the discipline knowledge，to make it possible to explain more economic phenomena and solve more economic problems，and to make it more understandable and easier to use．The driving force of discipline construction comes from the curiosity and responsibility of teachers and researchers．

⑵ The content of discipline construction includes testing and verifying，improving，updating and extending the existing knowledge，creating new knowledge，and upgrading knowledge system．For instance，upgrading the knowledge system from sustainable use of timber to the eco-function of forest system and the sustainable use of landscape and services；improving the scientific method from experience approach to experimental approach；improving the data use from predicting the future based on historic data to forecasting the future based on constantly updated big data；improving from induction of discipline progress to deduction of discipline outlook，and from China’s evidence to China’s experience and paradigm．

⑶ To carry out discipline construction，the first step is making a discipline construction scheme；the second step is organizing a discipline construction team，and the third step is establishing an incentive mechanism．The discipline construction must base on local practices．In Chinese contexts，many statements are similar，but the practices are quite different．By comparing those differences，one can gains various evidences，find various wisdoms，reach various conclusions，and draw various paradigms．

⑷ The phased，orderly and achievable of the discipline construction should be considered．The team leaders should be seriously selected．The team structure should be elaborated and the team should be dynamically optimized．The discipline construction tasks should be determined, pre-research subjects should be set up，literature reviews should be conducted，and methodologies should be evaluated．Discipline construction would be adjusted and readjusted，which include those in the scheme，plans，and paths of discipline construction and the team leaders and members of discipline construction．

⑸ At present，China has the largest team of professional staffs in the world conducting forestry economy research．Therefore，we should have the advantages to reach the target of discipline construction-innovation in the paradigm of forestry economy research．

Key words：forestry economy；discipline construction；scientific research

Original Articlein李周．林业经济学科建设的思考．林业经济问题，2017，37(3)：88-96．

⑴ Background——Natural forest protection project was launched in 2000．Through establishing the “3+X” green industrial system，Yichun forest region promoted the adjustment of economic structure from resource consumption to ecological protection．After full stopping commercial logging of natural forests，forest leading industry occurred a “cliff-type”shrinking，so that the structure of forest economic needs to adjust quickly．Faced with the influence of double pressures from economic income reduction and economic transformation，developing under-forest economy has become an important measure and an inevitable choice for the economic transformation in Yichun forest region．

⑵ Methods——The research object is the developments of under-forest economy in Yichun．Internet，professional books，academic journals and other ways were used to collect the research data and to understand the research trends of under-forest economy development through reviewing the literature both at home and abroad．This paper analyzes the present situation，characteristics，constraints and countermeasures of under-forest economy development in Yichun forest region by using theoretical analysis and qualitative analysis methods based on the theories of modern forestry economics and other related theories．

⑶ Results——The diversified development mode，developing characteristic industries，the preliminary industrial chain，industrial layout be more reasonable，set up diversified production base，brand building with highlighted regional characteristics and popularizing technology around characteristic industries were the present situation and main characteristics of under-forest economy development in Yichun state-owned forest areas．Through analyzing the problems(include developing with smaller scale，relatively extensive management，shortage of talent，etc．)and the constraints(such as systems，policies，funds，raw materials，technology，and ideas)in developing under-forest economy，based on the strategic choice，this paper puts forward the following measures：firstly，developing the under-forest economy should adhere to the priority of ecological protection，take full account of the carrying capacity of forests and the environment according to the laws of ecological balance，and rationally exploiting and utilizing forest resources under the premise of strict protection of forest resources；secondly，government should carefully cultivate new business entities，improve the interests of the link mechanism，and constantly innovative production and management model；thirdly，government should strengthen scientific and technological support，establish a contingent of technical personnel；fourthly，strengthening the supervision of the whole industry chain to ensure product quality and safety，playing the role of government guidance，increasing policy support；enterprises should expand the brand effect，improv product brand influence；etc．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Under the premise of protecting the ecological environment，developing the under-forest economy，expanding the channels for the employment，increasing workers’ income and promoting the green transformation of the state-owned forest areas are effective ways to promote the sustainable development of the state-owned forest areas．In order to make these countermeasures more targeted，it is necessary to find out the existing problems through benefit analysis，and give further in-depth analysis and discussion by establishing a scientific and reasonable data model．

state-owned forest areas；under forest economy；economic transition；rational development；sustainable development

10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.016

2017-06-09

作者简介：李周(1952-)，男，上海人，研究员，从事农林经济管理方面的研究，(E-mail)lizhou1952@163.com。

G423.04

A

1005-9709(2017)03-0088-09