The 13th Five-Year Plan Period:A Decisive Stage

By HU ANGANG

WHAT is Chinas blueprint for achieving the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020， and how to implement it？ During the Fourth Session of the 12th National Peoples Congress last March， Premier Li Keqiang offered a thorough explanation when delivering the 2015 report on government work.

Taking into consideration various scenarios over the next five years， both at home and abroad， the 13th FiveYear Plan advances the main objectives and indicators for Chinas economic and social development in the years leading up to 2020. The comprehensive blueprint was formulated in light of the needs of human beings， aiming to promote the peoples rounded development， and their comprehensive development.

The blueprints main goals include four categories， namely： economic development （four goals， 16 percent of total）， innovation （four， 16 percent）， peoples well-being（seven， 28 percent）， and resources and environment （10， 33 percent）.

These goals also demonstrate the resolution of all levels of governments to allocate public resources （including public finance， public investment， public facilities， and public policy measures） in a rational way， to provide public services， and actively cultivate a market presenting a congenial environment for investment and business under the rule of law， and thereby to reduce extrinsic risks and costs.

The First Time： a Target Zone

The average annual economic growth in the time frame of the new five-year plan is set at above 6.5 percent. It is a core goal of the plan， as well as acting as a weather vane for the countrys economic development. The new blueprint for the first time changes the customary fixed growth rate goal to a target zone. It indicates the governments scientific and rational thinking， and also allows leeway for fluctuations.

Chinas economy has surpassed US $10 trillion in scale， and its integration into the world economy is now extensive and deeply-rooted. These factors inject even more complexities and uncertainties into the country， both at home and from abroad. Adopting a target zone itself is an innovation in the means of macroeconomic control. The “above 6.5 percent” target will ensure the doubling of GDP and income per capita of urban and rural residents in 2020 as against the 2010 level. This clear“bottomline” signals an accurate message to the market and international society， as well as the resolve to “race to the top” and attain seven percent growth.

To accelerate optimizing and upgrading of the industrial structure is a key feature of the “new normal” phase Chinas economy is currently undergoing. As regards the three major industries， the 13th Five-Year Plan aims to expand the share of the service industry in GDP and employment in this sector by some six percentage points compared with the 2015 level， or up to 56 percent and 46.6 percent respectively. At the same time， agricultural employment is estimated to decline to around 23 percent. Agricultural modernization will be greatly boosted， however， in order to construct a modern agricultural management system. The status of modern manufacturing and strategic emerging industries will likewise rise. According to the plan， the future will see rapid development of new economies， new types of business and frontier areas， as well as expansion of the cyber-economy. The plan also pledges to facilitate green industries， and open up the maritime economy.

The main task of the new plan is to improve labor productivity per capita from RMB 87，000 to RMB 120，000， and register an average annual growth of over 6.6 percent. The five-year plan includes this element for the first time， in response to the continuous decline of the working age population that will render labor productivity of key competitiveness in the future.

Pivotal Function of Sci-Tech Innovation

The blueprint sets as a goal that scientific and techno-logical progress will contribute as much as 60 percent to economic growth by 2020. To this end， total R&D expenditures， as a percentage of GDP， will increase from 2.1 percent in 2015 to 2.5 percent. This indicates that funds will accumulate to RMB 11.22 trillion， roughly doubling that of the 12th Five-Year Plan period.

The 13th Five-Year Plan period will see the launch of six major scientific and technological innovative projects： aviation engines and gas turbines， deepsea stations， quantum communications and quantum computers， brain science and brain-inspired intelligence technology research， national cyberspace security， deep space exploration， and in-orbit service and maintenance of space vehicles. Another nine major projects are also in the offing， namely independent innovation in the seed industry， clean and efficient use of coal， smart grid， integrated space and terrestrial communication systems， big data， smart manufacturing and robotics， development and applications of new materials， comprehensive remediation of the environment of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei conurbation， and health security.

A group of high-level national science centers and technological innovation centers will be built， and Beijing and Shanghai will hopefully form the centers of gravity for globally influential innovation.

China is striving to achieve major breakthroughs in basic research， applied research and strategic frontiers by 2020. It expects to contribute significantly to basic research for world scientific development， and consummate major innovations that are able to support and lead economic and social development. The country also expresses its full support to aid the Chinese Academy of Sciences in becoming a top institution leading the world in scientific research.

The five-year plan accords priority to talent development strategies， aiming to establish national comparative advantages in talent competitiveness and become a talent-rich country by 2020. The pool of talent is estimated at more than 200 million， with the proportion in the workforce hiking to 17.6 percent. The number of people engaged in scientific and technological development will total 80 million.

By 2020， China is expected to welcome nine million person-times of returned overseas Chinese students， foreign experts in various fields， and foreign students， all manifesting that China is an attractive destination for talents. To study， work， innovate and create business in China will become a new trend.

Narrowing the Urban-Rural Gap

The 13th Five-Year Plan proposes the core target of narrowing the regional gap between urban and rural areas for the first time in history.

To this end， a key measure is to advance a new human-centered type of urbanization. China is speeding up its urbanization in order to reach 60 percent by 2020. The primary task is to improve the overall caliber of the urban population and their living standards， as well as to grant permanent urban residency in an orderly manner to those capable of holding stable jobs and living in cities and towns. New urbanization also means an intensive and efficient production space， a livable living space， and a clean ecological environment.

The regional gap in development has been narrowing since 2004， but the Chinese government is set to slash the relative difference in GDP per person among regions to below 40 percent， while lifting the equalization of basic public services. The status quo shows that the current policy package in this regard is doing very well – including giving full play to the bellwether functions of coastal areas， Western development， revitalization of old industrial bases in Northeast China， and the rise of Central China – in which the market also plays a much more active part in facilitating the mobility of the population and labor force. Joint efforts by government and the market have led to continuous shrinkage of the regional gap. As of today， the government has launched three more initiatives in addition to the aforementioned four strategies， styled “4+3，” namely， the Belt and Road Initiative， the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development project， and the Yangtze River economic belt. The new package sketches out a larger picture that encompasses not only domestic regions， but also neighboring countries. This will consequently promote integration of the regional and even the world economy， and significantly reconfigure the economic geography of 21st-century China and the world at large.

In the next five years， China will continue to construct major infrastructure projects. These include： extending the length of high-speed railways in service to 30，000 kilometers so as to link more than 80 percent of big cities in China， building or upgrading 150，000 kilometers of expressways， forming four “economic corridors” along the coastline， the Yangtze River， the border lines and the Belt and Road， building world-class airport clusters in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region， the Yangtze River Delta， and the Pearl River Delta， boosting the construction of international shipping centers in Shanghai， Tianjin， Dalian and Xiamen， building 3，000-km of new urban railway lines， elevating the rural electric reliability rate to 99.8 percent， and installing optic-fiber access in about 98 percent of administrative villages so as to realize a full coverage of broadband networks in both urban and rural areas.

Green Production and Lifestyle

The 13th Five-Year Plan promotes green production and living， and accelerates ameliorateion of the ecological environment. The goal is to build a beautiful China where the sky is blue， the land is green， and the water runs clear.

The plan further reiterates the importance of farmland protection. The amount of cultivated land must remain essentially unchanged， and the land designated for new construction projects controlled at under 32.56 million mu （22 million hectares） in which the density of population and economy will continuously increase.

For efficient utilization of water resources， the blueprint posits a core indicator of cutting the water consumption per RMB 10，000 of GDP by 23 percent in the next five years.

Forestry development is expected to realize substantial advances. By halting commercial logging of wild forests， forest coverage is estimated to rise from 21.66 percent in 2015 to 23.04 percent five years later. The country will implement wetlands protection and restoration projects to ensure that wetland areas are no less than 80 million mu （53.33 million hectares）. A new round of ecological subsidy incentives in grasslands will be kicked off to increase their overall vegetation coverage to 56 percent， and new soil erosion control measures will be carried out in an area of 270，000 square kilometers to vigorously combat desertification.

The efficiency of utilizing and exploiting energy resources will substantially improve through measures such as confining total energy consumption to within 50 million tons of standard coal， developing green energies， establishing regional and national carbon trading markets， and encouraging all regions， industries， enterprises to release their voluntary reduction targets and action plans.

Ensure a Share of the Fruits of Development

The 13th Five-Year Plan sets the ultimate goal of con-tinuously improving peoples well-being and allowing all a share in the fruits of development.

The government is prepared to fight hard to win the war against poverty and eradicate extreme poverty. China expects to lift all the people living below the national poverty line out of poverty. If it realizes this goal， it will complete the major task of the UNs SDG （Sustainable Development Goals for 2030） – eradicating absolute poverty and controlling the poverty incidence rate to within three percentage points – 10 years ahead of the corresponding UN time frame. To this end， the Chinese government has instituted eight key programs tackling poverty and according top priority to achieving this goal.

Another task in this regard is to promote the modernization of education and enhance the nations education level. The key indicator is increasing the average number of years of schooling received by the working-age population from 10.23 to 10.8 years. At the same time， the 13th Five-Year Plan identifies the important goals of building more world-class universities and first-class fields of disciplines. No more than a dozen years have passed since China first conjured the strategic vision of building world-class universities， and we have logged significant progress here. According to the Times Higher Education， US News and World Report， QS （Quacquarelli Symonds） and a number of other university rankings， more than 30 universities on the Chinese mainland have entered the world top 500， and seven have edged into the top 200， while Peking University and Tsinghua University are among the top 100. By 2020， the rankings of Chinas universities are expected to rise steeply， in line with Chinas economic status in the world.

To build a healthy China， the sole indicator is to achieve a one-year increase in average life span from 76.34 years in 2015 to 77.34 years in 2020， which is estimated to even surpass 77.5 years.

China is sparing no efforts to achieve the target of full employment. In spite of slower growth in Chinas economy， the ability to create new jobs is still burgeoning thanks to urbanization and the flourishing service industry. Each of the coming years will see a crop of more than seven million college graduates and around the same number of vocational high school graduates entering the workforce. They will constantly improve the overall level of human capital available， and significantly offset the negative effects occasioned by a decreasing demographic dividend.

Of particular note， the Chinese government will improve the income distribution system in order to narrow the income gap. The income differential between rural and urban residents is tending to narrow， as is the Gini coefficient of residents income. Local governments in coastal areas and qualifying central and western areas are encouraged to reinforce the regulations on income distribution by aiming to maintain the relative differential in per capita disposable income between urban and rural residents within the same jurisdiction at under two-fold.

To achieve complete coverage of the social security system， the key is lifting the participation in basic pension plans from 82 percent to 90 percent， thereby forming the worlds largest social security net. Another key indicator is to maintain the participation in urban and rural healthcare insurance at 95 percent， extending it to a population of about 1.33 billion and thereby producing the worlds largest healthcare security net. The government will also accelerate the establishment of urban and rural social assistance systems that will provide aid to persons living in poverty and in temporary destitution， enabling them to fully enjoy the fruits of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects.

The housing guarantee system will be improved， aiming to essentially eliminate all shanty districts by 2020， which is also a key indicator of the completion of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. At the same time， the government will increase the coverage of government-subsidized housing units to 20 percent， and provide public rental housing to families with mediumto-low income or eligible unregistered urban residents， enabling the dream of everyone having a home to live in to come true.

The public cultural service system must be modernized to cover all people， in both urban and rural areas. The goal is to attain coverage as high as 99 percent of the population with radio and TV programs， and expand cable TV coverage to rural families from the current onethird to about two-thirds. The government will ramp up efforts to improve the facilities of public cultural centers， libraries and museums in counties and cities， enhance the functions and utilization of cultural centers in villages， and promote reading nationwide.