The China Factor

By+An+Gang

The U.S. general election this year is particularly unpredictable with business tycoon Donald Trump running for the Republican nomination. Despite being scathingly criticized by his own party as well as his rivals in the Democratic Party， Trump has easily grabbed the attention of voters and the media.

With Ted Cruzs recent win in the Wisconsin primary， the race for the Republican presidential nomination could be contested all the way to the partys convention in mid-July， wherein the party will select who to push forward as the partys presidential candidate in the general election in November. Typically primaries are wrapped-up within a few months， or even weeks， of the first contest in Iowa， held on February 1 this year.

Regardless of who wins the nomination， Trumps performance—to say nothing of his bold speaking style and often offensive comments—in the race has caused people to take a closer look at the current state of American politics and society.

In particular， the Chinese media and members of the public are focusing on two points in this election： how presidential elections unfold in the United States， and what the candidates views are on China. In that way， we are closely watching， anticipating what the trend of U.S. policies toward China will be under the next administration.

For some Chinese scholars， up until now， the U.S. presidential election has been a rollercoaster of highs and lows， highlighting the positive and negative sides of the American system. On the one hand， in contrast to the parliamentary system， the U.S. president and members of Congress are elected by voting citizens. The idea is that the governing party reflects the will of the people， and that those elected have a mandate to govern.

On the other hand， if the executive and legislative branches are controlled by different parties—today with the Democratic Party holding the White House while the Republicans have the majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate—there is the potential for gridlock. The separation of powers requires support from the different branches of government in order for bills to be passed and then signed into law， and ultimately upheld by the courts. While the system requires each side to give way and make political compromises if they want their policies to be implemented， a smooth administration， to some degree， depends on cooperation in Congress.

When bipartisan relations are less polarized， both parties can work together to pass bills that concern national interests and improve peoples livelihoods. But the relations today between the two parties are particularly divided， and any senator or a small number of congressional members can act as a barrier against the presidents agenda. During the two terms of Barack Obamas presidency， the Republicans voted more than 60 times against main clauses in—or even the entirety—of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act， more commonly known as “Obamacare.” A number of U.S. citizens have been dismayed by the political deadlock that has lasted for the past six years since Republicans took back the House in 2010， and hope for a change.

Voters economic anxiety is also influencing this election cycle. Although Americas economy has recovered during Obamas presidency， the wealth gap has not narrowed. The middle class continues to shrink and blue-collar workers continue to struggle. In the meantime， a number of new immigrants—both legal and illegal， including thousands of children from Central America—have come to the U.S. in search of a better life. Some argue that immigrants take away jobs from locals and lower the salary of low-end jobs， affecting the income and employment of working-class Americans. Isolationism in Trumps campaign speeches caters to this mentality， which has highlighted topics involving trade and immigration， striking a chord specifically with white males.

In fact， this years Republican primary election has been characterized by populist and irresponsible ideas， thus giving them the spotlight. More moderate candidates were quickly knocked out of the race. This has become a prominent problem in the Republican party itself， leaving party leaders scrambling to get behind a candidate they think can win in November， when the electorate will be much more diverse.

Chinese scholars study the U.S. election from an institutional perspective as part of their studies on democracies around the world. In China， the mainstream views on American-style democracy have undergone a transformation， from superficial appreciation at the beginning of Chinas reform and opening up， to a more structured evaluation of the currently polarized political environment.

China became a prominent topic earlier in this election than in the previous ones. During the primaries， several candidates talked about China at length， mainly focusing on topics like human rights， the economy and trade， South China Sea and cybersecurity.

On China

There are economic， political and social reasons for this phenomenon. The Unites States domestic economy is improving and the Federal Reserve increased interest rates to propel further improvements， but the increase was hampered by Chinas economic downturn. This has caused some Republicans to criticize Obama for relying too much on “loans from China” in his economic policy.

Debates on the U.S. policy on China have been ongoing in political and strategy circles， and have actually flared up during this election season.

Among the Republican candidates， Trump has criticized China the most. Not only has he blamed China for “stealing” jobs from Americans and competing with America with“unfair” trade and monetary means， but he has also claimed that he would increase taxes on Chinese exports if he was elected. Trump knows that speaking ill of China during an election season could win him votes from blue-collar workers.

Senator Bernie Sanders， a self-proclaimed“anti-establishment” candidate， has flaunted his disapproval of Congress actions granting China most-favored-nation treatment in 1999. He claimed that he would radically transform trade policies if elected.

Former Senator and First Lady Hillary Clinton has years of experience in dealing with China， and her comments on China have been more policy-oriented and mainly focused on how she made the Asia-Pacific strategic adjustment as Secretary of State. While she thinks Chinas rise is a great challenge to the United States， she also believes that the China-U.S. relationship is extremely important， though highly complicated. Clinton has argued that the United States should focus on bolstering ties with Asian countries as a way to stem China from “writing the rules，” while fostering bilateral trade and cooperation.

In the 2012 presidential election， facing challenges posed by Chinas rise had become one of the televised debate topics for the first time in history. As China becomes an important factor influencing the formulation the U.S. domestic and foreign policy， it is hard to imagine a U.S. presidential election that does not focus on the future of the relationship between the two countries.

However， a main focus of this years general election will be centered on winning the support of both the middle-class and Latino voters. Topics on foreign affairs still rank behind those on domestic issues， such as the economy， healthcare and immigration for their constituencies. Among internationally oriented topics， anti-terrorism， the U.S.-Cuba relationship and U.S.-Russia relations capture more attention than Chinas rise and China-U.S. relations. Still， the economy tops the list in almost every public poll.

Views from China

The Chinese Government， academic circles and the public are more concerned about the future of China-U.S. relations instead of who will win the election. Will the next administration continue Obamas Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy and implement a tougher China policy， as predicted by some scholars？

Zhang Yuyan， chief of the Institute of World Economics and Politics， Chinese Academy of Social Sciences， thinks the relative strength of the United States is on the decline. Zhang noted that now the United States is having a hard time deciding whether it should continue to play the role of a world policeman and shoulder the increasingly heavy responsibility， or whether it should ignore the strains of global leadership out of practical interest.

The United States is also caught at a crossroads when dealing with China： how to effectively “contain” the rise of China while finding room for cooperation. The United States needs to find a way to “deal” with China that can accommodate Chinas economic development， without providing unchecked global influence. A presidential transition will hardly change the course of policymaking in these regards.

Wang Yizhou， Associate Dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University， thinks China has already become a key player in international affairs. Despite uncertainties in the United States China policy moving forward， Wang thinks the U.S. will take a tougher stance against China no matter who wins the election this year.

Chinese leaders generally believe that the China-U.S. relationship will follow its natural course of development. On March 16， Premier Li Keqiang talked about the U.S. presidential election when answering questions from the media at a news conference. He said it “has been lively and caught the eyes of many，” adding “I believe that no matter in the end who wins the laurel and serves as president， the underlying trend of China-U.S. relations will not change.”

In reality， all China can do is to wait and see. In the meantime， bilateral dialogue should not be absent during this process. As the gap of national strength between the two countries continues to narrow， China-U.S. relations are undergoing a crucial and sensitive period， and the stakes are high： The world needs responsible politicians that are prepared to handle it properly.