Answers to Four Key Questions about China’s Rise

By FU YING

IS China going to compete for world power？” Most people in China， if asked such a question， would show little interest in the country fighting for world power with the U.S.， and still less in becoming another U.S.

However， in the U.S. and some European countries， many may ask： How can we trust that China wont be that way？ They are concerned that China may try to set up a new regional order under its rule.

In a recent conversation with Henry Kissinger， he told me that he thought more people should know what the Chinese are thinking. I have therefore chosen the few hotly discussed topics below to share some of the views in China.

First， is China a world power？

For most in the U.S.， and the world for that matter， China is undoubtedly a newly rising world power.

According to the latest IMF purchasing power parity calculation， Chinas GDP overtook that of the U.S. to be the number one of the world. However， such a story did not raise much excitement in China. Most see it simply as flattery.

Foreigners see Chinas progress based mainly on images of its skylines in Beijing， Shanghai， or Guangzhou. But if you drive 100 km out of these megacities， you will easily find people living at very basic levels. By the UN poverty standard of US $1.25 a day， there are still about 200 million Chinese， or roughly 14 percent of the Chinese population， living under that line.

In China， urbanization has reached 51 percent. But when measured at the human level， people who are living in city conditions are no more than 37 percent. That is to say， more people in China are yet to enjoy urban quality of life， like clean water and proper medical care.

China is a country that has just come out of overall poverty. Those born in the 1980s were the first generation of Chinese to have grown up with a full stomach and who started to enjoy freedom of choice.

But at the national level， more challenges are waiting to be addressed， such as more hospitals， schools， and a better environment. The country is on a steep upward slope， confronting difficulties sometimes beyond the imagination of the outside world. That is why we state that China is a developing country， and that for a long time to come， the country will focus on its reform and opening to the outside world in order to promote development.

We have two centenary objectives. The first is to double the GDP as well as both urban and rural average incomes based on 2010 figures in time for the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party in 2021. The second is to turn the country into a modernized socialist society， with per capita income levels reaching that of a medium-level developed country by the 100th anniversary of the Peoples Republic of China in the middle of this century.

Second， does China have to compete for world power and might this even lead to war？

According to Hans Morgenthau， the theorist of realism in international politics， countries will inevitably fight for international power as they become stronger. John Mearsheimer， who developed the “offensive neorealism” theory for the postCold War international situation， also sees unavoidable， tragic competition among powers.

But it is important for the world to realize that China is consciously shaping a new paradigm that follows a path of peaceful development.

Chinas foreign trade grew 300-fold in RMB terms in the 30 years from 1983 to 2013. But this was not achieved through “flag before trade.” Rather， it was the fruit of mutually beneficial cooperation on an equal footing and within the existing rule-based international free trade environment. After China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001， international trade grew at an average rate of 18.2 percent annually. China is now the largest trading partner of over 120 countries， importing about US $2 trillion worth of goods a year， and creating jobs and investment opportunities around the world. This factor also anchors Chinas relations with its partners.

During the past three decades， Chinas GDP expanded 95-fold， while the increase in its military spending was only 42 percent of that rate. China follows a constitutionally stipulated national defense policy that is defensive in nature. Grabbing capital， resources， and markets by military force as the world witnessed in the past is unnecessary today， and is unacceptable as a policy option for China.

There are both domestic and international reasons as to why peaceful development works for China.

In terms of internal factors， the Chinese nation has a strong belief in peace. Many of the ancient sayings go deep in peoples minds， such as， “a nation， however powerful， is doomed if it is always hungry for war，” “peace is most valuable under the sun，” and “achieving harmony while allowing differences.” China suffered a great deal at the hands of foreign powers. We “do not do unto others what we dont want others to do to us.”

As a socialist country， the interest and benefit of the whole population is at the center of Chinas domestic policy， which has determined that its international strategy is firmly rooted in peace and cooperation with all countries.

Externally， globalization has created conditions that made it possible for China to achieve peaceful development. When the Cold War ended， it also broke the division caused by confrontation between opposing camps. Thus a global trend of diffusion occurred， whereby re- sources and factors of production， such as capital， technology， talents， and expertise， previously held mostly in the developed Western world， started to diffuse to the vast periphery. Wars and military expansion are no longer the workable and necessary way to attain economic expansion.

China made good use of this opportunity. Through its persistent reform and opening-up program， China has become the leading developing country in attracting international investment and technology. It has achieved its economic boost by being able to tap into global markets.

This is not a one-way street. Chinas massive growth has benefited all those countries and businesses who partnered with China.

Many other developing countries ride on the wave of globalization， and their role is also essential in adding vigor to a new period of world economic expansion.

Chinas peaceful development has been successful， and there is no reason not to continue it. Only by following the peaceful path can China attain its development goals.

Third， how is Chinas commitment to peace reflected in its policy in the neighborhood？

Since we entered the second decade of the 21st century， Chinas neighborhood has seen much disquiet. The temperature has risen over territorial disputes and maritime jurisdiction – issues which had lain dormant for years. What has happened？

On April 10， 2012， a Philippine navy ship sent armed men into the lagoon of Huangyan Island to harass Chinese fishermen working there. Photos of the scene angered the people back home， who called for actions to protect Chinese citizens and territory.

The following September， the Japanese government went ahead with the so-called “nationalization” of the Diaoyu Islands， which broke the status quo of shelving the disputes for resolution at some future time. That too ignited demonstrations in many Chinese cities and gravely strained ties with China.

China took effective measures in response to both provocations to firmly uphold its territorial rights and interests. At the same time， China has exercised restraint and has not given up on resolving disputes through dialogue or the principle of “putting aside differences and going for joint development.” We also watch closely the true intentions and other complicating factors that may lie behind provocations.

China and ASEAN countries have had many rounds of discussions and finally reaffirmed their commitment to the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea， which underpins stability in the South China Sea. We also started talks on a “code of conduct.”

Free and unimpeded passage in the South China Sea is crucial for China as a major trading country. Maintaining such freedom remains one of our priorities.

Compared with other regions in the world， Asia has remained peaceful and stable on the whole since the end of the Cold War. With no major conflicts， countries have been able to focus on economic development and cooperation. In this process， they have not only deepened common interests but also made Asia an engine for the global economy， contributing roughly half of global growth in recent years. Chinas good-neighborly policies have played an important role in this process.

One priority of Chinas Asia policy going forward is to support and join in the framework of dialogue and cooperation initiated by ASEAN， which fosters the principles of openness， inclusiveness， consensus building， and accommodating each partys comfort level. This is known as the ASEAN Way.

This seemingly loose regional architecture led by ASEAN has provided a major integrating network that brought Asia together in the post-Cold War order. China supports ASEAN centrality in East Asia cooperation， which now is an important component of the Asian order.

Parallel to this architecture are the bilateral military alliances led by the U.S.， which are a legacy of the Cold War. How these alliances renew and reinvent themselves is being watched closely.

The “rebalance strategy” pursued by the U.S. in recent years exhibits a heavy military focus and has given rise to new debate.

First， military alliances are exclusive in nature. Where do non-members figure in its security vision？ How do members balance their security interests and responsibilities with those of non-members？

Second， where do alliances draw the line when it comes to principles？ Do members always support their allies， be they right or wrong？

Third， how does the alignment regime interface with and accommodate the regions other multilateral frameworks？

In the case of Japan， its current leader refuses to recognize the history of aggression. He has visited the Yasukuni Shrine and denies the fact of “comfort women.” Furthermore， he constantly invokes the “China threat” to justify his attempt to amend the countrys pacifist constitution.

The concern among the Chinese people is that all this may be aimed at freeing Japan from post-World War restraints in order to attain the ability to wage war again.

As Japans most important ally， how will the U.S. rein in this ally and keep it on a peaceful track？ This will affect the future regional order in a fundamental way.

The decisive factor for Asia is whether China and the U.S. can properly manage their relationship and cooperate on regional issues. Leaders of the two countries have agreed to build a new type of major-country relationship. The question is how this is realized in the real world.

The first issue is whether the two countries could build up mutual trust and reduce misperceptions. The lack of trust between China and the U.S.， both at a strategic level and in media circles， has led to continuous misreading and misjudgment， which spoil the atmosphere and stand in the way of cooperation.

For the U.S. side， the key lies in resisting the temptation to view China from an ideological standpoint. If this obstacle cannot be removed， bilateral ties are likely to be affected by ups and downs from time to time.

The second is whether the two countries can learn to respect each others interests and concerns. To the Chinese people， the U.S. seems to prefer standing on the opposing side on almost any issue that involves Chinas interest. For instance， when China faces provocations from its neighbors， the U.S. has pointed fingers at China regardless of facts. By doing so， the U.S. has reinforced its negative image among the Chinese public.

To change that， the two countries could exhibit a more positive tone and conduct more visible cooperation in such areas as climate change， counterterrorism， curbing pandemics， and cyber security. Both countries need a prosperous and stable Asia. We should identify areas where we agree and work on them. In areas where we cant agree， lets put aside differences for further discussion.

We should state together our support for the multilateral frameworks led by ASEAN and leave minimum space for regional countries to worry about China-U.S. conflict or to take sides.

On the part of China， we should carefully consider how our actions might affect our neighbors. We should explain ourselves more proactively – to make our voice better heard – so that the outside world can have a more timely and objective understanding of our thinking and intentions.

Fourth， how do the Chinese people see their countrys role in the world and its international responsibilities？ Should China share global responsibility with the United States？

The world today is constantly troubled by conflicts in different regions. The Ukraine issue has not yet cooled down and the temperature continues to rise in the Middle East. China is perceived as not playing a sufficient role or even as shirking responsibilities.

In China， people see that most of the worlds problems started from the wrong foot and then led to a mess. The easiest way to resolve an issue is to stop the fighting and find a compromise among the parties concerned. It is a widely held belief in China that countries should not interfere in each others internal affairs. So China may join in discussions about hotspot issues with the aim of seeking a peaceful solution， but it will not turn into a party involved in the conflict or take steps that make the problem worse.

How about Chinas global responsibility？

First and foremost， as a country accounting for one fifth of the world population， growing prosperous and staying stable in itself is a very important contribution of China to the world.

As for world security issues， China has offered good offices on the Korean nuclear issue and promoted stability in Afghanistan. We are also parties to many of the negotiations concerning regional and world security. However， China does not see itself as having an overriding power over other countries. Our view is this： should there be the need for international involvement， the opinion of the country concerned and the regional view must come first， and the UNs authorization cannot be circumvented.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has elaborated on the concept of Asian security， which promotes common， comprehensive， cooperative， and sustainable security. Thats a crystallization of Chinas security thinking， and it also goes along with the general thinking in Asia. It is also important that China provides more public goods as its ability grows. For example， since 2008， the Chinese Navy has sent 45 ships to the pirate-ridden Gulf of Aden on escort missions， and half of the ships they helped were non-Chinese.

China has actively participated in international cooperation in disaster relief， combating transnational crimes， and maritime security. China now ranks the first among developing countries in terms of peacekeeping assessment at the UN， and is the biggest contributor of peacekeepers among the five permanent members of the Security Council.

China also strives to share antipoverty experiences with African and other developing countries. Chinese medical personnel are at the forefront of fighting the deadly Ebola virus and much assistance and many resources have been sent from China.

Asia is the key area for Chinas international cooperation. Chinas initiatives to develop the Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road are aimed at expanding connectivity and promoting common development. It combines Chinas advantages and the regional needs. This modern Silk Road is not a closed or exclusive arrangement. We welcome participation by other countries， including the United States.

When the U.S. judges China or other countries on their roles in the world， it often prefers others to just “follow me” or “do for me.” This approach does not go down well with the Chinese people. On the other hand， in China， we also need to fully understand and appreciate our countrys new position in the world and grow into this new role. The direction to go is that where the Chinese and Americans try to understand and appreciate each others views and positions better. That is indispensable should the two countries want to work closely and effectively on world strategic issues.