武石桥+
摘要:为了应对全球性金融危机对金融系统的冲击,日本银行采用了极为宽松的货币政策,在灵活调整货币政策框架的同时运用了大量传统和非传统的政策工具。文章主要从货币政策目标、货币政策工具以及货币政策传导机制三个方面考察了金融危机后日本银行从传统货币政策体系框架向量化货币政策体系框架的演变过程。日本银行的政策实践对我国进一步完善货币政策框架有一定的借鉴和启示。
关键词:货币政策框架;日本银行;量化宽松;货币政策传导机制
中国分类号:F833/837 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1004-2458(2014)03-0019-04
ᅭᄏᄀ꿰ᄆ효ᄐᄚᅥ¦ᄡᆱᅪᄈᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티
ᆱᅦᅯ프ᅫᆪᄏᄆᆲᄋᄁᄎᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄇ계ᄐᆱᅫᆰ■ᅨ샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇᆪᆲᅲᅴ최ᅯᅨᅮᅢᅨᅧ�ᄀᄁ틔ᄌᄉᄊ¢ᅱᅱᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂ휴←쵟ᆲᄇ꿔ᅳᄡᆱᅪᄈᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᅬᅡᅩ폐ᄡᄡᅡᅨᄇ켜뭐ᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂᄒᆪᆲᅭᄏᄊᄄ뽀쐬ᄏᄎᄑ¬ᅨ프ᅫᆪᄏ쒀프ᅬ솨뾰ᅯᄐᄚᅧ소¥ᄒᆳ태샤ᄈ¥ᄏᄀᆪ
ᆪ뚀ᄏᆪ뤠ᄆ효
1882ᅣ↑10ᅯᅡᆪᆲᄌ홟ᅣ↑6ᅯᅡᄚ¦ᄇᄐ샤ᄀ쒜ᄆ효ᅩ�ᄀ웨ᄆ효ᅰ�ᅧᄑᆰᅭᄉᆪᆲᆰᅧᄐᄚ↓■ᄡ₩○ᄀᄁᄡ○ᄑ쿄ᅲᄀᆪᄌᄒᄎᄡᄊᄅ샤ᄀ쒜ᄆ효ᄋᄄᄀᄋᄍ₩ᄊᄄᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᅧᅮᅳᅬᄋ뗷ᆲᄊᄇ켜ᅦᅰᄌᆴᄏᄍᄏᄍ위ᅥᄍᆱᅨᄒᄀᆪᅰᄆ효ᅲᅵᄇ│ᅯᅳᄊᆱᄒᄅᆪᆲᄚ뛔봺ᅯᄆᄏ£ᅧᅭᄀᄁᄐ↓ᄇ←ᅧᅭᄀ꺼ᄏᆴ휘ᄀᄁ프ᄏᄍᄍ휘ᄀᄁᄑ£ᅨ ̄ᄏᄍᄍ휘ᄀᄁ프ᅧᄈᄀ휘ᄀ꽈ᄈ터ᄉᄇ←휘ᄀᄁᄍ텨휘ᄀᄁᄋᄁ묘휘ᄀ꾜쇄휘ᄀ꾀솨뻬←ᄆᄄ휘ᄀ께←ᄆᄄ왜휘ᄀ뀨ᅵᅫᅨᅧᅡ휘ᄀ꽤ᅣᅧ←휘ᅭᅯᄐᄚ프혜ᄉ15ᄌ배ᅤᄀᆪ■ᅪ¬ᄏᄍ│ᅮ32ᄌ위ᅭᅯᄐᄚ21져ᅡᅫᅨᄀᆪᅰ봺ᅯᄆᄏ£ᅧᅦᅰᄆ효샤ᅲ○ᄌᄒᄇᄏᄍᄍᆪᆲᄌ춰프ᅰᄇ샤ᅯᅨᅭᅯᄐᄚ쥐ᅱᅭ쇄ᄏᄆᄒᄋ풰→샤ᄋᄊᄄᄀᆪ뿨ᄆᄚ뜌ᅵ배1ᅨᆪᆲᄌ뮤ᅵ배2ᅨᆪᆲᅭ←ᅭ←ᅯᄆ6ᅨᆪᆲᅨᅢᅦ혀ᅦᅯᅳ봬ᅭ←ᅯᄎ촤ᅱᅳᅭ←ᅯ촯ᅭ¬샤ᅦ←ᅬᅡᆪᆲᅮᅣᅳ좨ᅢᆪᆲᅫᅥᅳᅫᆰ5ᅣ↑ᄀᆪ
ᆪᄄᄊᆪ뤠ᄆ효ᄡᆱᅪᄈᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티
ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᅧᅦᄏ묘ᅰ뷔ᅥᄊᄄ촤ᅧ셔ᄅ샤ᄏᄡᄀᆪᆲᅨᅧᅦᅪᄄᄍ�ᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄡᆱᄉᄐ퀴ᅥᄑᆱᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂᄒᄀᄁ뷰ᅣᄆ↑ᆪ뚜ᅱ뻐ᄍᄂ휘ᄌᄆ↑ᆪᄅᆪᆲᅱᄑ←ᅱᄌᄆ↑ᆪ뚜ᅱ뻐ᅢᅭ¥ᅢᆰᆪᄅᄀ뀨○ᅱᅰᅣᄆ↑ᆲ푸뾰ᄏ주퀘ᅩ¥샤ᄏᄆᄒ티ᄍᄍᄀᆪᅰᄆ효샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᅭ뷼ᅰ¬ᅭᄏᄏᄆᄒ티ᄍᄍᄀᆪ
1.ᄏ묘ᅰ뱌ᄆ↑
ᆪᄄ1ᆪᄅᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤ᅲ○ᅱᅰᅣᄆ↑ᆪ쵀틔ᅫᄊᄄᄀᄁ프ᅫᄊᄄᄀᄁᄚᅳᅪᅪᄄᄏ폐촤ᅧ쇠ᅱ쀠샤ᄒᆳ태ᅯᄈᄂᄌᄒᄀ쒜ᄆ효ᄋᄄᄀᄋᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄀᄚᅪᄄᄍ�ᅧ쇠ᅱᅫ틔샤ᅫᄊᄄᆪᆲᄑᄊᄡᄑ째ᄒᆳ태ᄑᄀᄉ샤ᄋ꿰ᄍᄀᄆa ᄀᆪᄐᄡᄆ■ᅢᅰᄆ효ᅭᅯᅫ틔ᅫᄊ뜌ᅫᆰᅣᄆ↑ᄀᆪ
ᅪᆲᅧᄆ재ᄋᄄᄏᄍᄍ₩ᄊᄄᆪᆲᅰᄆ효샤ᅣᄆ↑ᅧᅦᄀᄚᅲᅫᆰᅫᅭᄍ샤ᅱ→ᅭᆪᆲᅯᅳᄋ뀌ᄑ묘샤ᅪᆲᅧᄆᆪᆲᄑᄏ묘촤프ᄉ프ᄀᄆb ᆪᆲᅭᅯᄐᄚᄀᄚᄋᄆᆪᅰᄆ효ᅮ→프ᄏᄍ쮩ᄐ¦샤ᅲᅧᄑᄑ£ᅨ ̄ᅨᄈᄑᆪᆲᅭᅯᅫᆲᄏᄂ프ᅩ¥ᅬᄉ샤ᅫᄊᄄᄀᄆcᄀᆪᄐᄡᄆ■ᅢᅰᄆ효ᅭᅯ프ᅬ솨뽸ᄊ뜌ᅫᆰᅣᄆ↑ᄀᆪᅲᅡᅱ시ᄉᄍ뭬ᅱᆴᄎᆪᆲ프ᅧᄈᄀ볢ᅦᄋ쐐ᄃ샤ᄊᆵᅯᅫᆪᄏᆪᆲᆱᅦ프ᅬ솨빼₩ᄆᆪ샤외ᅰᄀᆪᅫᆰᅨᄋᄆᆪᅰᄆᄒ프ᅧᄈᄀ샤ᅫᄊᄄᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᅭᄏᄋ패₩←ᄏ○ᅯᅨᅮᅢ쥐ᅱᅲᅧᄑᄍᄅᄌ뷳ᆲᄚ뛔ᅯᆰ샤ᄍᄅᄌᄀ깨ᅯᆰ샤ᄍᄅ죠ᅯᄐᄚ촤ᅥ¦ᅨ5툐ᅪ¬ᄎᆪᅱ→ᅭᅦᄅᄊᄅᄏ묘ᄏᆬᄏᄏᆳᅭ←ᄉᄡ→ᅧᄅᆪᆲ■ᅭᄏᄋ패₩ᄏᄍᄏ�ᄐᆱ샤ᅡ→프ᄏᄍᄍ쀠ᅮ샤쩌묘ᅯᄐᄚᅬ프ᄏᄍ쪼£ᄍᄅᄎᄈᆬᄡ○ᆪᆲᅫᆰᅧᄈ고£ᄍᄅᄊᆵᅯᆪᆲᄐ겨ᄈᄀ샤ᄊᆵᅯᅭ틔ᅮ→외ᅰ
ᅭ틔ᄀᆪ
ᄡᅨᅪ¬ᆪᆲ2009ᅣ↑12ᅯᅡ1ᅰᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄋᄁᄆ■ᅨᅩ¬ᅫᆰᄀᄊ쭈ᅳ프■ᅨ샤ᅦᄏᆵᄀᄋ샤ᅫᅣᅰᅡᆪᆲᄆ■ᅢᄀᄚᅰᄆ효ᅬᅧᄊᄉᄑᄚᅳᅪᅪᄄᄏ폐ᄀᄁᄏᄉ퐤틔ᅫᄊᄄᄏᄡ괴샤쀠ᅯᄈᄂ샤ᅡᄋᄒ쐬ᄡᆪᆲ쒀ᅰᄆᄒᄒᆳ태ᄡᅨ셔ᅦᅭᄏᄌᄐᆱᅫᆰᅱᅭᆰ샤ᅫᅩ¬ᄀᆪᅫᆰᄡᅨᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᅲᅫᆰᅱ→ᅭᄑᆱᅲ쀼○ᄡᄍ뫼ᅲᄀᄆd ᄀᆪᅰ¬ᅥᆰᅫᅣᅰᅡᅧᅦᅰᄆ효ᅧᅲᄡᅫᄑᆱᄚᅳᅪᅪᄄᄏ폐ᅫᅧᅩ¬ᅲᅫᆰᄏ묘ᅰ뱌ᄆ↑ᅩ£ᄈᄀᆪ2013ᅣ↑1ᅯᅡ22ᅰᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᅮ→ᅰᄆ햐ᅳᄌᄌᆴᄀ꿰ᄆᄒ버ᅫᅧᄀᆰ최ᄋᄁᄆ■ᅨᅩ¬ᅫᆰᄀᄊ쭈ᅳᅫᆰᅧ쇠ᅱᄚᅳᅪᅪᄄᄏ폐ᅮ→쀠샤ᄒᆳ태ᅯᄈᄂᆪᆲᅰᄌᆴᅮ→ᅰᄆ효샤ᅰᄇ최ᅲᄀᄋ샤ᄍ봛ᅢᆪᆲᅰ�ᅧᄑᄆ↑ᅱ휴ᅤᅰᄆ효ᄚᄚᅳᅪᅪᄄᄏ폐ᅮ→ᅧ쇠ᅱ쀠샤ᄒᆳ태ᅯᄈ뉴ᅫᆰᅥ¦ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤ᅲ○ᅱᅰᅣᄆ↑ᅱᆴᅭᄏᄀᆪᅫᅣᅱᅭᄏᄋ패₩ᅱ↑ᅰᄆ효ᅧᅮᅫ틔ᅫᄊ뚜→프ᅬ솨ᄈ샤ᅫᄊ뙑ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤ᅲ○ᅱᅰᅣᄆ↑ᆪᆲ■ᅭᄏᄋ패₩ᄚᄚᅳᅪᅪᄄᄏ폐ᅮ→ᅧ쇠ᅱ쀠샤ᄒᆳ태ᅯᄈ뉴ᅫᆰᅮ→ᅰᄆ훼ᄌᆴ투ᅦ최ᅲᄇ꽭ᅱᆴᅤᆲᆭ샤ᅣᄆ↑ᄀᆪ
ᆪᄄ2ᆪ뤼ᄑ←ᅣᄆ↑
ᅬ웨ᅫ틔ᅱ져�ᄀᆪᅱ→ᅭᅭᆰᅬ→ᅪᄄᄍ�ᅯᅨᅮᅢᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂᄒ쉐ᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄑ쎠쇠ᅱᅲ○ᅱᅰᅣᄆ↑ᆪᆲ│ᅭᆰ치ᄊ¢ᅧᄆᄐ¦촤ᄡᆱᄉᄐᄍ�뽀ᄀᆪ쬵ᄉᄡ�ᅰ¬ᅭᄏᄍ�뽊봐↑ᄈᆪᆲᅯᄡᅰ�ᅰ벎ᄇ○ᆪᆲᅣᅦᅢᄡᅣᅵᅫᆰᅧ묘ᅪ■ᄀᆪᅮᅳᅧᅦᄚ뛔ᄆ효ᅯᅳᅣᅳ샤ᅨᅮᅱ→ᅭᆪᆲᅪᄄᄍ�ᄊ뀨궤ᄇᄍᄂᄒ촤ᅲ○ᅱᅰᅣᄆ↑ᅱᆴᄐ¦샤ᄆ¦ᆪᆲᄡ호¥ᅧ셔ᄅᄇ콻샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄀᆪ�ᅰᄆ효ᅯᅳᄋᄊ뜌○ᅱᅰᅣᄆ↑ᄎᆪᆲᄚᅬ웨ᅫ틔ᅱ져�ᅲᅫᆰᅱᄑ←ᅣᄆ↑ᆪᆲᅭᅯᅧ쇠ᅱᅲ○ᅱᅰ샤ᄏ묘ᅰ뱌ᄆ↑ᄀᆪ
2006ᅣ↑3ᅯᅡᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄋᄁᄇ톄ᅩ¬ᅫᆰᄀᄊ쭈ᅳᄀᄚᅫ틔ᅫᄊᄄᄀᄆ샤ᄡᄋᄄᄀᄋ샤ᅫᅣᄐᆪᆲᅫᅣ튀ᄌ쀄봺ᅯᄆᄏ£ᅬᅫᆰᅯᅳᅣᅦᄚ샤ᅦ←ᅬᅡᆪᆲᅬ웨ᅫ틔ᅱ져�푀ᅬᅭ캬↑ᅯᄈᄂ0%~2%샤ᅨᆴᅥ펴ᅦ최ᅧᅧ샧ᆲᅦᅭᄒᄡᄊ¢ᅧ�ᅫᆵᅯ몌ᄑ뚀←샤ᅥᄑ휘숴ᅳ1%ᅲᅮᅭᆪᆲᄇᄁᄉᄐ→ᄀᄚᅱᄈ너ᅳᅫ틔ᅫᄊᄄ샤■ᄑ¬ᄀᄆ샤ᅰᄇᄀᆪ재ᅰ벼ᅦᅱ줘ᅳ프ᅰᄇ뷰ᅱᆪᆲ줴봺ᅯᄆ쒀ᅮᅳᅱᄈ너ᅳᅫ틔ᅫᄊ뗴ᅬᅪᆲ샤ᅫ틔ᅬᅰᅦᅡᅧᄀᆪᅪᆲᅧ뮈ᄌ뼤₩ᅲᅤᄒᆳ태ᄑ£ᄍᄍ샤ᄆ¦ᄏᆵᅱᄈ너ᅳᅫ틔ᅫᄊᄄ샤■ᄑ¬ᅣᅵᄏ£ᄇᄏ쐬ᄆ¦ᄏᆵᆪᆲᄑ채1ᅣ↑ᅲᅮᅭᄑ1ᄡᅫ쉐ᄀᆪᅰ¬ᄆ↑ᅱ훼ᄆ횱ᅧᄐ부ᅢᅪᄄ컈ᅰᅪᅣᄆ↑ᅱᅥᄀᆪᆱᅦᅯ프ᅫᆪᄏᄆᆲᄋ뀙ᄎᆪᆲᅰᄆ효쒀ᅮᅳᅫ틔ᅫᄊᄄ샤ᄆ↑ᅲᄐ볘ᅭᄏ라샤ᅬᅧᄊᄀᆪ2009ᅣ↑12ᅯᅡᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄋᄁᄇ톄ᅩ¬ᅫᆰᄀᄊᄀᆴᅱᄈ너ᅳᅫ틔ᅫᄊᄄ샤■ᄑ¬ᄀᆵ샤ᅢᄋᄏᆵᄀᄋ샤ᅫᅣᄐᆪᆲᅫᅣᄐ쒀ᅮᅳᅬ웨ᅫ틔ᅱ져�ᅯᄈ나ᅧ주│ᅨᅢᄋ샤ᄋ쐐ᄃᆪᆲᅥ¦ᅭᄏᆪᆲ0%ᅭᅯᅬᅡ샤ᄌ취셔ᅦᄇᄏᄆ쿼ᅧ■샧커¦ᄊᆪᆲᅭᅯ1%ᅫᆰᅱᅣᄀᆪᅪᆲᅧ뫠ᅣ튀ᄌᄈᄚᅳᅪᅪᄄᄏ폐ᅭᅯᄐᄚᅫ틔ᅫᄊᄄ샤ᄏᄡ괴ᅧᄍᄒᆳ태퀴ᄌᄡᄉᄑ쀠ᅯᄈᄂ샤ᄍ↓쇠ᄡ뾁ᅰᄆᄒᄒᆳ태ᄐᆱᅥ¦ᅱᅭᆰ샤ᅫᅩ¬ᄀᆪ2012ᅣ↑2ᅯᅡᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄋᄁᄇ톄ᅩ¬ᅫᆰᄀ쒸ᄈ너ᅳᅫ틔ᅫᄊᄄ샤ᅣᄆ↑ᄀᄋ샤ᅫᅣᄐᆪᆲᅢᄋᄑᆱᅱᄈ너ᅳᅫ틔ᅫᄊ땨ᄆ↑ᄊ뚸ᅳ1%샤ᅨᆴᅥᄑᄀᆪ2013ᅣ↑1ᅯᅡᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄋᄁᄇ태ᅫᆰᄀᄊ쭈ᅳ프ᅰᄇ뷰샤티ᄏᄡ괴샤ᄀᆴᅫ틔ᅫᄊ땨ᄆ↑ᄀᆵᄀᄋ샤ᅫᅣᄐᆪᆲᅫᅣᄐᄉᄐ→ᅨᅬ웨ᅫ틔ᅱ져�ᅣ↑ᅯᄈ나ᅧ2%샤ᅡᅣᄆ↑ᄀᆪ
ᆪᄄ3ᆪᄅ뷰ᅣᄆ↑
ᅫᄉᆪᄆᆪ죠ᄍᄇᄑ¬ᅡᅧᄀᆪᄏ쐬ᅧ샤ᅱᄑ←ᅣᄆ↑ᅭᄇᄇ캬ᅵᅮᅰᄆ효샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂ혜ᅱᄆ푸ᅱᅥᆪᆲᅮᅳᅧᅦᅰᄆ효ᅮᅱ궈ᅨᅫᄉᆪᄆᆪ죠ᄍᄇᄑ¬ᅡᅧᅲᅫᆰ뷰ᅣᄆ↑ᆪᆲᅨ샤ᅩᄉ ̄ᅧᅦ쒀ᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂᄒᄋᄡᅮᆭᄐᆱᅫᆰᅢᄌᆪᆲᅪᆲᅧ몌ᅢᅦ샤ᄆ¦ᄊᆵᅮᅱᅣᅵᄍᄏᄡᆱᄉᄐ쥐ᄑ←ᅣᄆ↑ᄀᆪᅰ¬ᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᅧ셔ᄅᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂ휥ᄎᆪᆲᄉᄆ쯰ᄇ↓ᄉᄑ뷰ᅣᄆ↑촤ᅱᄑ←ᅣᄆ↑샤ᄆ¦ᄊᆵᄎᆪᆲ화ᅭᅯᅯᄡᅫ쒀ᅰᄇᄍᄂᄒ샤ᅧ셔ᄅ퓌ᅪ훼�ᆪᆲᅭ�ᄉᄐᄏ묘ᅰ벼쇠ᅱᅥ¦ᅫ틔ᅫᄊᄄ촤프ᅬ솨뽸ᄊᄄ샤ᅲ○ᅱᅰᅣᄆ↑ᄀᆪ
2.ᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂᄒ
ᅫᆰᅧ쇠ᅱ프ᅰᄇ샤ᅣᄆ↑ᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᅨ부ᅢ샤ᄡᆱᅪᄈᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂᄒᄚ뚀ᅯᅬᅡᄐ쥐ᅱᄀᆪ
ᆪᄄ1ᆪᄅᄍᆱᆰᅧᄈᄀ뷰ᄀᆪᅨᅫᄑ샤ᄍᆱᆰᅧᄈᄀ뷰화ᅧᅦᅰᄆ효ᅯᅳ쏘ᅥᅳ프ᅧᄈ괴ᅪᄄᄍ�ᅡᅡᅥᄆᄒᄐᄚᅮ틔ᅱᄂᆵᆪᆲ쉐ᅧᄈ귀ᅲᅧᄑᄍ레ᅲᅵᄀᆪᄍᆱᆰᅧᄈᄀ뷰ᅧᅦ프ᅧᄈᄀᄉ프ᅲ○ᅱᅭᆰ샤ᅰᄇᄍᄂᄒᆪᆲᅪᄄᄍ�재뷰ᅮᄚᅬ↓쏘ᅥᅳᅧᄈ가ᅧᄀᆪᆱᅦᅯ프ᅫᆪ쿼ᅳᅧᄑᄋ쐐댜ᅳᅡᅮᅱᆴᄎᆪᆲᅫᆰᅨᄋᄆᆪ프ᄉ프샤ᄏᄊᆵᅯᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᅣ메ᄍᆱᆰᅧᄈᄀ뷰샤ᄊ¢ᄏᆵᆪᆲᅱᄇᄑᄅᄡᅨᄍᆱᆰᅧᄈᄀ뷰샤ᄋ쐐ᄃᄀᆪᅬᅱᅯᅳᄍᆱᆰᅧᄈᄀ뷰ᄚᄄᄈᆪᄐ쉬처ᄋ뷰ᄀᄁ쮍ᄏᄍᄎ뷰ᄀᄁᄍ¬ᆵᅡᅡ뷰ᄀ꼬ᅭ서ᄆᄒᄏᄍᄎ뷰ᄀᄁ쮍ᅡ→뷰ᄀ꺼ᄆ하ᄈ뷰ᄀᄁ쮍ᄇᄍᄈ¦ᄍ룮ᄀ꼬ᅭ서ᄆᄒ촤ᅥᅭ쉝샤ᅡ→ᄀ뀌져�ᆰᄊᆵᅪᅬᅧᄏᄑᄉ샤ᅡ→ᄀ깨ᅯᆰ샤ᅲᅧᄑᄍᄅᄌ뷰ᄀᄁ투ᅯᆰ샤ᅲᅧᄑᄍᄅᄌ뷰ᄀ꾸ᄁᄚ샤ᅲᅧᄑᄍᄅᄌ뷰ᄀ꺠웕샤ᅲᅧᄑᄍᄅᄌ뷰ᄀ껴ᄋᄄ샤ᅲᅧᄑᄍᄅᄌ뷰ᅭᅯᄐᄚᅫᆰᅱ둹ᅯᅱᅦ프ᄏᄍᄍ샤ᅲᅧᄑᄍᄅᄌ뷰ᄀᆪ
ᆪᄄ2ᆪ뤠바ᅧᆪ쵀ᄉᆪᄆᆪ죠ᄍᄇᄑ¬ᅡᅧᄀᄁ큐ᄐᄡ○ᅡᅧᄀᄁᄇᄍᄈ¦ᄡ₩○ᅱᅥ쎠ᅧᅮᅢᅡᅧᄀᆪ1994ᅣ↑9ᅯᅡᅱᆴᅦᄚᆪᆲᄌ훼ᄇᄍ₩ᄊ뛔ᄆ해ᄐ¦ᅭ샤ᅡᅧ촤ᅯᅩᅬᅱᅡᅧᅪᆲᄇᄑᄆ¦ᄏᆵᄀᆪᅯᅩᅬᅱᅡᅧᅧᅦᅰᄆ효ᅬᅢᄐ¦ᅭᄡ○ᅧᄆ샤큐타ᅧᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᅪᄄᄍ�ᅱᅥᅯᅩᅬᅱᅡᅧᄡ쉐프ᅰᄇᄀᆪᄐᆪᆲᄈ너ᅳᅭᅯᄡᅩᅬᅱᅡᅧᅭ퀴ᄆᄋᄁ쿠ᅲᅤᅰ바ᅧ샤ᅲᅮᅢᄀᆪᄉᆱᅧᅦᄡᅮ1994ᅣ↑10ᅯᅡᆰᅧᄐᆪᆲᅢᄐ¦ᅭ샤ᅡᅧᄆ콰↑ᆱᅲᅯᅮᄏᆵᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᅫᄋ뚸ᅪᄄᄍ�ᅱᅥᅩᅬᅱᅡᅧᄡᅧ쇠ᅱᅢᄐ¦ᅭᅡᅧ샤쉐ᄀᆪᅮᅳᅧᅦᆪᆲᅰᄆ횱ᅧ톼ᄄᄍ�ᅮ→ᅢᄐ¦ᅭᅡᅡ쮍촤ᅥᄆᄒ샤ᄋ펴ᄑᄑᄍᆱᆰᅧᄈᄀ뷳ᆲᄑ쏴ᄄᄍ�ᅱᅥᅫᄉᆪᄆᆪ죠ᄍᄇᄑ¬ᅡᅧᄡ줘ᄂ쏘ᅥᅳ프ᅧᄈᄀᄀᆪ1999ᅣ↑ᅧᄉ ̄ᅡᅧᅰᄇᄎᆪᆲᅫᄉᆪᄆᆪ죠ᄍᄇᄑ│ᅡᅧ뾁ᅣᄆ↑ᅡᅧᄀᆪ2001ᅣ↑2ᅯᅡᆪᆲᅫᆰ위ᄍ프ᅧᄈᄀ샤ᅱ컋ᆲᅰᄆ효ᄉᄐ→ᅲ○ᅱᅰᄡ○ᅨᅱᅥᄊᆪᆲᅰᄆ효뺴쉬쿍ᅮᄉᆪᄆᆪᅥᄋ화ᅣᅵᅭᅯᅩᅬᅱᅡᅧᅫᅬᅱᅥ샤ᅬᅢᄐ¦ᅭᅩ£ᄍ르ᅲᅧᄀᆪᅪᆲᅯᅡᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄒᄊᄄ│ᄁᄇᄍᄈ¦ᄡ○ᄆ ̄ᆪᆲᅱ퉈ᅳᄋᄋᄊ프ᅧᄈᄀ샤ᄊᆵᅯ외ᅰᆪᆲᅩ£ᄌ쒀ᅧᄈ가ᅧ샤ᄉᄃᄍᄀᆪ2006ᅣ↑8ᅯᅡᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄇ톿ᅱ쪄쭈ᅢᅯᅩᅬᅱᅡᅧ샤ᅢ뻓ᆲ쟈ᅫᆰ뻐ᅲ큐토ᅬᅱᅡᅧᅭᅯᄐᄚ큐ᄐᄡ○ᅡᅧᄀᆪ쭈ᅳ3줴바ᅧ샤ᄆ¦ᄊᆵᅦ←ᆪᆲ봬ᄐ
ᄆ■1ᄀᆪ
ᄆ■1 ᅰᄆ효ᅰ바ᅧ샤ᄆ¦ᄊᆵ
ᄒᄊ뛔ᅥᅳ ᅫᄉᆪᄆᆪ죠ᄍᄇᄑ¬ᅡᅧ/% 큐ᄐᄡ○
ᅡᅧ/% ᄇᄍᄈ¦ᄡ₩○ᅱᅥ쎠ᅧᅮᅢᅡᅧ/%
2007-02-21 0.5ᅲᅮᅭ 0.75 ᄀᆰᄀᆰ
2008-10-31 0.3ᅲᅮᅭ 0.50 0.1
2008-12-19 0.1ᅲᅮᅭ 0.30 0.1
ᅲᅧᅬᄡᅯᄡᆪ췌ᄆ효ᅪᅰᄒᆪᄄ퓌ᄍ2013ᅣ↑11ᅯᅡ7ᅰᆪᄅ
ᆪᄄ3ᆪᄅᄡ₩○ᅲᄐᄆᄌ파ᅧ뷰ᄀᆪᄡ₩○ᅲᄐᄆᄌ퓌ᅥ쎠ᅦᅱ죠ᄒ1957ᅣ↑ᅧ셔ᄅ샤ᄀ쑤ᄍᄡ₩○ᅲᄐᄆᄌ퓌ᅥᄊᄀᄋᆪᆲ프ᄏᄍᄍᄑᆱᄡ₩○샤ᅭᄏᄊᄄᄆ�ᅭᅯᅬ샤ᄑᄊ○ᄡ₩얘ᅯᅳᅱ→ᅭ샤ᅱᅥᄊᆪᆲᅨ샤ᄆ�뻐ᅫᆰᄡ₩○ᅲᄐᄆᄌ파ᅧᆪᆲᅭᆰᅦᄡ₩→샤ᅲ○솨ᄑᄊ○뻐ᅫᆰᄋᄄᄊ뜌ᄐᄆᄌᄑᄀᆪᄡ₩○ᅲᄐᄆᄌᄑ뷰ᅧᅦᅱ죠ᄏ쮜→ᅭᄆ¦ᄌᄡ₩○ᅲᄐᄆᄌ파ᅧ샤뷰ᄀᆪᅱ→ᅭᅭᅯᅪᄄᄍ�쉐ᄡ₩○ᅲᄐᄆᄌᄑᄡᅱᅥᅭ샤ᅲᅧᄑᄈᄆᄒᆪᆲᄑᄊᄐ¦푸ᄉ쉐ᅭ샤ᄡ○ᅧ�ᆪᆲᅥ¦쒀ᄏ묘ᄍᄅᄌ촤ᅡᅧ샤ᅮᄚᅬ↓푀ᄡᄀᆪᅯᅳᅰᄆᄒᆪᆲᅬᅱ샤ᄋᄄᄊ뜌ᄐᄆᄌ파ᅧᅯᅳ0.05%ᄉᄑ1.3%ᅱᆴᄐ¦aᄀᆪ
ᆪᄄ4ᆪ러¦ᅨᄡᄡᅡᅯᄡ→ᅧᄅᄀᆪᄇᄍᄈ¦ᄡ₩○ᄆ ̄ᅱᅥᄊᄀᆪᆱᅦᅯ프ᅫᆪᄏᄆᆲᄋᄁᄎᆪᆲᅫᆰᅨᄋᄆᆪ프ᅧᄈᄀ샤ᅫᄊ뚀ᅯᄐᄚᅯᅳᅣ↑ᅣᄅᄀ꺄↑쌰뤄투ᅲᅧᄑᄍᄅᄌᆪᆲ2008ᅣ↑10ᅯᅡ31ᅰᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄒᄊᄄᄉᄐ→ᄇᄍᄈ¦ᄡ₩○ᄆ ̄ᅱᅥᄊᆪᆲᄇᄁᄚᄇᄍᄈ¦ᄡ₩○ᄆ ̄ᅱᅥᄊ샤ᅧᅧᅮᅢᅡᅧᄋᄊ뚸ᅳ1%bᄀᆪ
ᅥᅭᄉ프ᅱ둹ᅩᄆ뷰ᄀᆪᅫᆰᅨᄋᄆᆪ프ᅧᄈᄀ샤ᅫᄊ뚀ᅯᄐᄚᅥᅭᄉ프ᅩ£ᄍᄅᄆ ̄ᆪᆲ2008ᅣ↑12ᅯᅡ19ᅰᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᅰ봺ᅯᄆᄏ£ᄑᄒᄊ뗘셔러ᅭᄉ프ᅱ둹ᅩᄆ뷰ᄀᆪᅨᅭᅯᅫᄉᆪᄆᆪ죠ᄍᄇᄑ¬ᅣᄆ↑ᅡᅧᅲᅫᆰᅡᅧᆪᆲᅢ쿠ᅲᅧᄑᄊ○쐬ᅱᅥ샤ᅬᄋ최ᅲᅧᄌ샤ᅢᄐ¦ᅥᅭ소£ᄍᄅ쉬ᄎᄡ○ᄀᆪ
ᄡ○ᅱ둹ᄏᄑᄀᆪ2010ᅣ↑6ᅯᅡᆪᆲᅫᆰᅨᅯᅳ프ᄋ패₩ᅱ둹ᅢᄐ¦프ᄏᄍᄍᄌ채샤ᅪᅥ풔ᄈᄂᄏᄡ게ᄏᆵᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄒᄊᄄᄉᄐ→ᄀᆴᅫᆰᅱ둹ᅯᄈᄂᄏᄡ게ᄏᆵ샤ᅲᅧᄑᄍᄅᄌᄀᆵᄀᆪᅯᅳᄡᅨᄏᄡ괴ᅫᆰᅨ표ᄏᄇ펴쇠ᅱ프■ᅨᄃ쬬ᅯᄐᄚᄌ채샤ᅡᅲ ̄ᅥᅭᄉ촤툐ᅪᆬ샤ᅲᅧᄑ│ᅦᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᅮᅳ2012ᅣ↑12ᅯᅡ20ᅰᄒᄊᄄ│ᄁᄡ○ᅱ둹ᄏᄑᄀᆪᄡᅨ쵉ᅱ둹ᅯᄈᄂᄏᄡ게ᄏᆵ샤ᅲᅧᄑᄍᄅ죠ᅯᄐᄚᅫᆰᅱ둹ᄡ○ᅯ투샤ᅲᅧᄑᄍᄅ주ᄡᅨᄏᄑᄡ
ᄌ춰ᄀᆪ
│뀨ᅧ바→ᄏᄑᄀᆪ2010ᅣ↑10ᅯᅡ5ᅰᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄒᄊᄄ│뀨ᅧ바→ᄏᄑᆪᆲᅲᅫᆰᅧᄆᄡ→ᅧᄅᆪᆲ쒀쮍ᄀ꼬ᅭ서ᄆᄒᄀ꺼ᅭ쉝ᄀ뀌져�ᆰᄊᆵᅪᅬᅧᄏ표ᅯᄐᄚᄋᄉ봐쓔ᅧᅤᅪᄏᄑᄉᄊ¢ᅱᅱ프ᅲᅧᄇ파→ᅭᅯᄐᄚᄑ쪼ᄊ따ᅧᄋ펴ᄑᄍ봐ᄄᄉᆪᄆᆪᅲᅧᄑᄍᄅᄌ뷰ᄀᆪ2013ᅣ↑4ᅯᅡ4ᅰᆪᆲᅨ₩ᅲᅤᅰᄆ효ᄀᄚᅱᅧᄇᄁᄒ샤프■ᅨᄀᄆ샤ᄉᄐ→ᆪᆲᅲᅧ바→ᄏᄑᄆᄏ외ᅱᄍᄀᆪ
3.ᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄡᆱᄉᄐ퀴ᅥ
ᅪᄐ1 ᄡᆱᅪᄈᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤ᄡᆱᄉᄐ퀴ᅥ
쒀ᅮᅳ프ᅬ솨ᄈ촤ᅧ소¥ᄒᆳ태ᄡᅨᄉᆪᆲᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤쉐ᅬ¢ᄉ무ᅳᅭᄏ좌¬ᄡᄈ¥ᄏᄀᆪᅣᅦᅢᄡᅰ¬ᅱᅱᄈ¥ᄏ샤ᄡᆱᄉ튀ᅭᆰ₩ᄐᄚᄉ퓌→ᅭᄀᄁ프ᄏᄍᄍ촤ᄍᆱᅱᅳᆪᄄᄐᄡᅥᅭᄉ촤툐ᅪᆬᆪᄅ3쥐ᅩ¥ᆪᆲᅭᅯᄐᄚᆰᅬ쉐¬3쥐ᅩ¥샤ᄑᄌᄏᄋ픇ᆲᄐᄡᄡᅮᅱ→ᅭᄉᄑ프ᄏᄍᄍᆪᆲ촤ᄡᅮ프ᄏᄍᄍᄉᄑᄍᆱᅱᅳᄀᆪᄡᆱᅪᄈᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤ᄡᆱᄉᄐ퀴ᅥᅱᅲ○ᅫᆰ쳬ᅣ샤ᄡᆱᄉᄐ퀴ᅥᅧᅦᅪᄄᄍ�ᅡᅧᅣᄆ↑ᅱᅥᅧ쇠ᅱ샤ᄀᆪᅪᄐ1ᅨᅧᄒᆪᆲᅧᅵᅡᅧᅣᄆ↑샤ᅮᄚᅬ↓프ᅧᄈ귀ᅡᅧᄀᄁᄏ ̄ᅡᅧᅭᅯᄐᄚ쩌ᄆ슈ᅧᄇ틔ᄌᄏ£ᅨ₩ᅲᅤ뵈¢ᅮᆭ샤ᄆ¦ᄊᆵᄀᆪᅰ→쒀ᅬᅡᅪ튀샤ᄡᆱᄉ톼ᄒᄒᄊᆪᆲᄆᄒ프ᅬ¢ᅮᆭ죠ᅯᅧᄀᆪᅡᅧᄡᆱᄉ톼ᄒᄒ쎠ᅦᆳ쎼ᄍ■ᅡᅴᅱᅲᅵ│ᅦᄀᆰᄀᆰᅲᅵᄍᄅ쟋ᅪᅭᅯᄐᄚIS-LMᅣᆪᅪᅱ쳬ᅣ샤ᄡᆱᄉᄐ퀴ᅥᆪᆲᅨᅬᅫᆰᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤쉐ᄏ£ᅧ쪄ᄉ텨ᅡᅧᅨᆴᅥ푀¢ᅮᆭᄆ¦ᄊᆵᆪᆲᅰ¬ᄏ£ᄉ튀ᅡ쀼ᅧᄈᄆᄒ샤쟈ᄆ¦ᆪᆲᄑ쑈�ᅥᅬᄋ촤ᅪ쓔ᅧᅱᄃᄈ샤ᄆ¦ᄊᆵᆪᆲᅲ○ᅱᅰᅮᄚᅬ↓ᅲᅵ│ᅦ촤쨔ᅳᅫ틔ᅨᆴᅥᄑᆪᆲᅯᅳᅰ¬ᅭᄏᄍ�뽀ᅱᄈ너ᅳᅧᄉ텨ᅡᅧᅥᄉ폐ᄍ튜ᅮᅢᄀᆪᅨ¦ᄏ재ᅪᄒᄒ쓔○ᅫᆰᄡᆱᅪᄈᆪᆲᅭᄇᄍ ̄ᅫᆰᅨᅢᅦᅨᅧ↓ᅱᆰᆪᆲᄉᆱᅧᅦᄑ랴↑ᄡ샤ᄒᄈᄍᄡᅧ쩌¦ᄆ¦새ᄇ쿼■ᅨᅮᆭᄉᄆ[1]ᆪᄄTaylorᆪᆲ1995ᅣ↑ᆪᄅᄀᆪᅬᅱ퐈ᄒᄒ쎠ᅦᅱᄌᄏ묘ᅰᄇ쉐ᄏ£ᅧ째ᅭ¥ᅡᅧᄋᄁᄆ¦ᄊᆵᆪᆲᅰ¬ᄏ£ᄉ튀ᅡᅥᅭᄉ퀘툐ᅪᆬᅬᅱᄑ샤쟈ᄆ¦ᆪᆲᄑᄊᄏ£쟈ᅥ퀘ᄊᄏᆵᅥᅭᄉᄏ툐ᅪᆬ샤ᅲᅧᄇᄌ췙ᄆ■ᆪᆲ표ᄏᄇᄑᄏ£ᅮᄚᅬ↓ᅥᅭᄉ촤툐ᅪᆬ샤ᅪ쓔ᅧᄀ꾀ᄋᄀᄁᄡ○ᄉᄒᄇᄀᆪᅱᄉ새ᅲ꾜¬샤ᅧᅦᆪᆲᅯᅳᅰ¬ᅭᄏᄍ�뽀ᅱ쏘ᅥᅳᅢᅭ¥ᅡᅧᅥᄉ폐ᄍᄐ샤ᅲᅮᅢᆪᆲᅰ¬ᅱᅭᆰᅧᅦᅭᅫᆰ쒀ᅥᅭᄉ촤툐ᅪᆬᅬᅱ푸ᄚᅬ↓ᅲ○ᄡ샤ᄇ켜ᅦᄈ너ᅳᅰᆴᅫ샤ᄈᆬᄌᄊᆪᆲ쎠ᅦ쏘ᅥᅳᅰᆴᅫᄀᆪᅪᄆQ■ᅡᅴᅪᄒᄒ쎠ᅦᅱᄌᄏ묘ᅰᄇ쉐ᄏ£ᅧ쪠ᅢᅦᅧᅱᅱ샤ᄏ묘쀠ᅮᅮ→ᅨᅢᅦ샤ᅭ¬ᅯᄌ쀠ᅮᄐ¦뾔ᅱ믃ᆲᅰ¬ᅧ몌ᅢᅦᄏ£ᄇ위쉐ᅨᅢᅦᅯᅳ쩌며ᄈᄀ샤ᅪ쓔ᅧᆪᆲᄑ쏴ᄄᄍ�ᅪᄆ샤Q■ᅡᅴᅧ쪠ᅢᅦ샤ᅪ쓔ᅧᅱᄃᄈᄋᄁ쟈ᄆ¦[2]ᆪᄄTobinᆪᆲ1969ᅣ↑ᆪᄅᄀᆪᅲᅧᄇᄌ췙ᄆ■ᅪᄒᄒ쎠ᅦᅱᄌᄏ묘ᅰᄇ쉐ᄏ£ᅧ쩌ᅭᄉ촤툐ᅪᆬ쩌ᄆ슈ᅧᄇ틔ᅱ쇠�ᆪᆲᄑᄊᄏ£ᅧ쩌ᅭᄉ촤툐ᅪᆬ샤ᅲᅧᄇᄌ췙ᄆ■새ᄉᄑ쟈ᅥᆪᆲᅣᅵᄍᄏ쟈ᄆ¦ᅥ¦ᅳᅲᅧᅲᄡᅭᅯᄐᄚᅥ¦ᅬ와쓔ᅧ쉬ᄃ뾰¬ᅯᄌᄀᆪ버ᄌᄏ둖ᅪᄒᄒ쎠ᅦᅱᄌ뤠ᅤᅯ샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄏ£ᅧᄍ쩌ᄆ쇠웨프ᅲᅧᄇ틔죄ᅰᅦᆪᆲᅬ웨샤프버ᄌᄏᄏ£ᅨ₩ᅱᆴᅯ툯ᆲ표ᄏᄇ푀위ᄃᄈᄏ£ᅬᅯᅱᅯ투ᄀᆪᄏ ̄ᅡᅧᅪᄒᄒᄊᄡᆱᄉᄐ퀴ᅥᅧᅦᅱᄌᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤ᄆ¦ᄏᆵᄏ£ᅧᄍᄏ ̄ᅡᅧ뵈¢ᅮᆭᄆ¦ᄊᆵᆪᆲᅰ¬ᄏ£ᄑ쑤ᄚᅬ↓ᄒᄏ쁘ᅭᅯᄐᄚ프ᅩᅥᄋ샤틔ᄌᆪᆲ표ᄏᄇᄑᄏ£ᅧ쭈ᄚᅬ↓쨔ᅳᅲᅵᄇᄈ촤쨔ᅳᅫ틔ᅥᄑᄒᄀᆪᆰ얘ᄒᆳ태ᅩ퇴ᅡᆪᆲᅨ₩ᅲᅤᆱᅦᄒᆳ탥ᅬᄉ샤ᅰᅭ₩패ᅵᆪᆲᄏ ̄ᅡᅧᅪᄒᄒᄊᄡᆱᄉᄐ퀴ᅥ뾁ᅮᄚᅬ↓쨔ᅳᄒᆳ태샤ᅭᄏ쥐ᅭᆰᅪᄒᄒᄊ[3]ᆪᄄBryantᄉᆪᆲ1993ᅣ↑ᆪᄅᄀᆪ│ᅭᆰᅱᄌᄈ샤ᅧᅦᆪᆲᅯᅳᅨᅮᅪᄒᄒ쓅ᅱᆪᆲᅯ너ᅳᅪᄒᄒᄊᄆ푀ᅩᅧ¬ᆪᆲᅨᄇᄁᄇᄏᄊᄁᄡ₩ᅯᅳᆪᆲᄉᆱᅧᅦᅥ¦ᅯᅳᄏ묘ᅰᄇ쉐쒀ᄒᆳ태ᅯᅨᅱ샤ᅮᄚᅬ↓ᄡᅯᅳᄇᄏ쐬투ᅦᄀᆪᅯ너ᅳᅪᄒᄒ쎠ᅦᅱ줴ᄆ효ᅪᄄᄍ�ᅧᅪ얘쥐ᅱᅤ챿ᆲᅮᄚᅬ↓ᅧᄈ귀ᅩ¥쒀ᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄆ¦ᄏᆵ샤ᅯ너ᅳᄑ쎠쇠ᅱᄏ묘ᅰ뱌ᄆ↑샤ᄍ�뽀ᄀᆪᅯ너ᅳᅪᄒᄒ쑑ᅦᅱ→ᅭᅮ→ᅧᄈᄀᄆᆪ쀠ᄍ솨ᄄᆪᆲᅯ투ᄏ묘ᅰ봐재ᅯ촤ᅤᄊᄀᆪ퍄↑ᄡᆪᆲᅨ₩ᅲᅤᅪᄄ쑤→ᅤᅬᄁᄐ텨ᅪᄏ애ᅪᄑ샤ᄋ꿰쬬ᅯᄐᄚᄏᆬᆰᅪ샤ᅥᅰᄐᄚᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄉᄋᄁᄡᄍ툐ᅱ→ᅭᅯᅳᅱᄡᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍ�뽀ᅱᆪᆲᅭ붸ᅭ₩ᅱᅧᅮᅬᄍᆱᅱᅳᄡᆱᄡᅰ뵤¬ᅪᄐᄑ쏴ᄄᄍ�
ᅯ너ᅳᅪᄒᄒᄊᄡᅮᄚᅬ↓ᄍᆱᅱᅳᅫ뽸ᄊᄄ샤ᅯ너ᅳᆪᆲᄡᅮᄊ쟈ᅥᄐᄚ투ᅦᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤ᄃᄍᄀᆪ
ᄊᄀ꿰ᄆ효ᅱᅧᄇᄁᄒ■ᅨᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티
2013ᅣ↑4ᅯᅡ4ᅰᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄋᄁᄇ톄ᅩ¬ᅫᆰᄀᄊ쭈ᅳᄉᄐ→ᄀᆴᅱᅧᄇᄁᄒ샤프■ᅨᄀᆵᄀᄋ샤ᅫᅣᅰᅡᆪᆲᅫᅣᅱᅱᄌ쀄ᄆ효ᅯᅳ풰샤프ᅰᄇᄒᄊᄄᄏ£ᅭ←ᅬᄒᄊᄄᄉᄐ→ᄀᄚᅱᅧᄇᄁᄒ샤프■ᅨᄀᄆᄀᆪᄆ↑ᅱ휴ᅤᅰᄆ효ᄡᅮᄡᆱᅪᄈᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᅲᆰ→ᅱᅧᄇᄁᄒ■ᅨᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᄀᆪ
1. ᅱᅧᄇᄁᄒ■ᅨᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤ᄏ묘ᅰ뱌ᄆ↑
ᆪᄄ1ᆪ류○ᅱᅰᅣᄆ↑ᆪ쵀틔ᅫᄊᄄᄀᄁᄚᅳᅪᅪᄄᄏ폐ᄀᄁ프ᅫᄊᄄᄀ껴쇠ᅱᄒᆳ태ᅯᄈᄂᄀᆪᅨ¦캐쿠ᅢᅬᅯ샤ᄐᆪᅬᄆ■ᅢᆪᆲᅪᅥ쀠ᅧᄇᄁᄒ■ᅨᅰ뷡ᄎ샤ᅰᄆ효쟈ᄆ¦ᅨᅥ¦ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤ᅲ○ᅱᅰᅣᄆ↑ᄀᆪᄉᆱᅧᅦᄡᅮᄍᆱᄇᄐ샤ᄀᄚᅮᄍ프ᅧᄈᄀᄉ프ᄋ풰→샤ᅢᄀ뫼ᅯᅧᄒᆪᆲᄡᅮ2013ᅣ↑4ᅯᅡᅱᆴ췌ᄆ횱ᅧᄐᄌᄊ¢샤ᅦᄉᄒ궈ᅧ쇠ᅱᅫ틔ᅫᄊᄄ샤ᅣᄆ↑ᅭᅯᄐᄚᅧ쮀ᄆᄒᄒᆳ태ᄚᅳᅪ쀠ᅨᄈᄂᄡ15ᅣ↑ᅱᆴ해샤ᅪᄄᄏ폐샤ᅯ좌ᄀᆪ
ᆪᄄ2ᆪ뤼ᄑ←ᅣᄆ↑ᆪ최웨ᅫ틔ᅱ져�ᄀᆪᅯᅳ2013ᅣ↑4ᅯᅡᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄉᄐ→ᅱᅧᄇᄁᄒ샤프■ᅨᅱᆴᄎᆪᆲᄒᄀ찌프ᅧᄈᄀᄉ프샤뷰ᅣᄆ↑ᄡᅮᄉᆪᄆᆪ죠ᄍᄇᄑ¬ᅡᅧᄆ¦ᅫᆰᅨᄏᄡᄀᄏ묛ᆲᄉᆱᅧᅦᅬ웨ᅫ틔ᅱ져�샤ᅱᄑ←ᅣᄆ↑ᄇ꽤ᄡ쟈ᄆ¦ᄀᆪᅱᆴ채ᅯᅡ샤프ᅰᄇᄒᄊᄄᄏ£ᅭ←ᅬᅰᄆ효ᅰ봺ᅯᄆᄏ£ᅯᄏ£쒀ᄈ�ᅬᅧᅧ뻐요ᅯᅪ¬샤ᅬ웨ᅫ틔ᅱ져�ᅮ→ᆬᅣ↑ᅪᆲᅥᅳ샤ᄆ¦ᄏᆵᅡᅧ폐샋ᆲᅪᆲᅧ뭐ᄂᄇ¬ᅫ틔ᅬᅰᅦᅡᅧ샤ᄆ¦ᄊᆵ
ᄋ푀ᄀᆪ
ᆪᄄ3ᆪᄅ뷰ᅣᄆ↑ᆪᄎᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᄀᆪ2013ᅣ↑4ᅯᅡ4ᅰᆪᆲᅰᄆ효ᄇᄐᄉᄐ→ᄀᄚᅱᅧᄇᄁᄒ샤프■ᅨᄀᄆᆪᆲ호¥ᄡ→ᅧᄅᄚ뚸ᅳ2ᅣ↑ᅲᅮᅭ샤ᅧᄆᄐ¦ᄒ궈ᅧ쇠ᅱᅬ웨ᅫ틔ᅣ↑ᅯᄈ나ᅧ2%샤ᅣᄆ↑ᆪᆲᅫᆰᄡᅨᅪᄄᄍ�ᄑᆱᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᅭᅯᄐᄚᄈ너ᅳ쮍ᄀᄁETFᄉ샤ᄆᆪᅮ퍄↑ᅧᄆᄐ¦ᄅᄡᄑᄆᄊᆪᆲᄑᆱᄈ너ᅳ쮍ᅡ→샤ᅥᄑ혃ᅮ¢ᅧᄆᄐ¦ᅮᄈᄂᄑᄆ쑈ᅯᅬ셔ᅱ쐐ᄑ샤촤ᅱᅧ샤ᄇ콻ᅫᆲᄊ샤프■ᅨᄀᆪᅪᆲᅧᄆᄒᄊᄄ프ᅧᄈᄀᄉ프샤뷰ᅣᄆ↑ᅭᄇᄡᅮᅫᄉᆪᄆᆪ죠ᄍᄇᄑ¬ᅡᅧᄆ¦ᅫᆰᄏᄡᄀᄏ묛ᆲᅰ¬ᅭᄇᄆ↑ᅱ휴ᅤᅰᄆ효ᅰ�ᅧᄑ외ᄈ�ᅡᅧᅣ
ᄆ↑ᅱᅥᄊᄀᆪ
2.ᅰᄆ효ᅱᅧᄇᄁᄒ■ᅨᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤ᅰᄇᄍᄂᄒ
ᆪᄄ1ᆪᄅᄍᆱᆰᅧᄈᄀ뷰ᄀᆪᄍᆱᆰᅧᄈᄀ뷰ᄇᄏ펴ᅦᅡᅧᄆ¦ᄊᆵ샤ᅱᅭᆰᅭᅨᆪᆲᅪᆲᅧ묘벼ᅦᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᄆ¦ᄊᆵ샤ᅲ○ᅱᅭᆰᄒᄊ뚀ᅨᄀᆪᄍᆱᆰᅧᄈᄀᄍ차ᅭᅯᄅᄡᅲᄐᄆᄌᄑ촤ᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᄍ₩ᅣᆪᆪᆲᄡᅮ쑤ᅮᅳᅯ투ᄏ묘ᄍᄅᄌᄀᆪᄋᄡᅱᆴᄍᆱᆰᅧᄈᄀ뼈ᅴᅯᄏ£ᄐ규ᄐᄆᄌᄑ촤ᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᄍ₩ᅣᆪᆪᆲᄡᅮ쑤ᅮᅳᄑᄉ솨ᄏ묘ᄍᄅᄌᄀᆪᅰᄆ효ᄉᄐ→ᅱᅧᄇᄁᄒ샤프■ᅨᅱᆴᄎᆪᆲᄒᄊᄄᄑᆱᄈ너ᅳ쮍ᄀᄁETFᄉ샤ᄆᆪᅮ퍄↑ᅧᄆᄐ¦ᄅᄡᄑᄆ쑈ᅯᄐᄚᄑᆱᄈ너ᅳ쮍ᅡ→샤ᅥᄑ혃ᅮ¢ᅧᄆᄐ¦ᅮᄈᄂᄑᄆ쑈ᅯᅬᄀᆪᅪᆲᅧᄆᄒᄊ뙑ᅨᄡ펴ᅰᅭ₩ᅡᅧᅦᅬᆱᄇ샤ᅡᅧᄑᄉ솫ᆲᄈ너ᅳ쮍ᄆᆪᅮᅮ¢ᄊ○ᅢᅣ↑ᅯ투ᅯᄐ50ᅪᅭᅳᅰᅯᆰᆪᆲᅡ→쒀ᅬᄚᄄ40ᅣ↑쮍ᅯᅳᅣᅳ샤쥐ᅱ¢ᅪ쮍ᆪᆲᅡ→ᅥᄑ혃ᅮ¢ᅧᄆᄐ¦ᄡᅮ구ᅳ3ᅣ↑ᅮᄈ뉘7ᅣ↑ᅲᅮᅭᆪᄏᄡᅮᅲᅧᄇ틔죠틔샤페ᄊᄡᄡᆪᆲᅯ투EFTᄀᄁJ-REIT샤ᅡ→ᆪᆲᅦᄚᅰᅢᅣ↑ᅯ투1ᅪᅭᅳᅰᅯᆰᆪᆲ췌ᅢᅣ↑ᅯ투300ᅭᅳᅰᅯᆰᆪ코ᅭ서ᄆᄒ샤ᅡ→ᄊ○ᅯᅳᄆ햐↑ᅣᄅᄡᄉᄑ2.2ᅪᅭᅳᅰᅯᆰᆪᆲᅱᆴ쵋쀠ᅰ¬ᅭ켜�ᆪᄏᄍᆱᅨ휉샤ᅡ→ᄊ○ᄉ퍄↑ᅣᄅᄡᄉᄑ3.2ᅪᅭᅳᅰᅯᆰᆪᆲᅱᆴ쵋쀠ᅰ¬ᅭ켜�aᄀᆪ
ᆪᄄ2ᆪᄅᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᅱᅥᄀᆪᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᅮᅱ뻐쟈ᅵᄏ묛ᆲᅨ수ᅳᅪ뛰샤ᅬᅱ푸→ᅭᅩ¥ᅬᄉ샤ᅲᄐᄆᄌ퓨ᅵᄊ○ᅱᆴ촤ᄀᆪᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᄆ¦ᄊᆵᅧᅦᄏ묘ᄍᄅᄌᄆ¦ᄊᆵ샤ᅱᅭᆰᄡᅯᄡᄀᆪᅰᄆ효ᅰ봺ᅯᄆᄏ£ᄉᄐ→ᅱᅧᄇᄁᄒ샤프■ᅨᅱᆴᄎᆪᆲᄒᄊᄄᄑᆱ프ᅧᄈᄀᄉ프샤뷰ᅣᄆ↑ᄆ¦ᅫᆰᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᄀᆪᄇ꼬£ᄈᄑᆱᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᅭᅯᄐᄚᄈ너ᅳ쮍ᄀᄁETFᄉ샤ᄆᆪᅮ퍄↑ᅧᄆᄐ¦ᄅᄡᄑᄆᄊᆪᆲᅦᅭᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᅢᅣ↑ᅯ퉈투60~70ᅪᅭᅳ
ᅰᅯᆰᄀᆪ
3.ᅰᄆ효ᅱᅧᄇᄁᄒ■ᅨᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤ᄡᆱᄉᄐ퀴ᅥ
ᅪᄐ2 ᅱᅧᄇᄁᄒ■ᅨᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤ᄡᆱᄉᄐ퀴ᅥ
ᅦ무ᅳᄡᆱᅪᄈᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤ᄡᆱᄉᄐ퀴ᅥᆪᆲᅱᅧᄇᄁᄒ■ᅨᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤ᄡᆱᄉᄐ퀴ᅥᅱᅲ○ᅫᆰ쳬ᅣ샤ᄡᆱᄉᄐ퀴ᅥᅧᅦᅪᄄᄍ�ᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᅣᄆ↑ᅱᅥᅧ쇠ᅱ샤ᄀᆪᅪᄐ2ᅨᅧᄒᆪᆲᅧᅵᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᅣᄆ↑샤ᅮᄚᅬ↓프ᅧᄈ귀샤ᄏ묘ᄀ까ᅧᄀᄁᄏ ̄ᅡᅧᅭᅯᄐᄚ쩌ᄆ슈ᅧᄇ틔ᄌᄏ£ᅨ₩ᅲᅤ뵈¢ᅮᆭ샤ᄆ¦ᄊᆵᄀᆪᅪᄐ2ᅭᅯᄋ꾀ᅱᄡᆱᄉ톼ᄒᄒ쑤ᅯ투ᅭ부ᄐᆪᆲᅮᅮᅳᅯᅳᄏᆵ■ᅨ샤ᄏ묘ᄏᄋᄒ뾔ᅡᆪᆲᅡᅧᅣᄆ↑ᅱᅥᅭᄆᄏ외ᄈ�ᄇ께ᅭᅢᅭ¥ᅡᅧᅭᄒᆳᄑᄉ솨ᅱᅧᄉ텨 ̄ᅡᅧᅨᆴᅥᄑᆪᆲᅭᄒᆳᄇᄏᄡ₩ᅯᅳᅬᅡ쉐ᄐ¦ᆪᆲᅭᄡᅨ쿠ᅳ쏘ᅥᅳᅢᅭ¥ᅡᅧᄆ¦ᄊᆵ샤ᅬᅱ퐈ᄒᄒ쒀ᅳᄏᆵ■ᅨᅰᄇ샤ᄡᆱᄉᄐ퀴ᅥᅱᅬᅧᄃᄀᆪᅰ¬│ᅭᆰᅱᄌ뼤¦카ᅧᅣᄆ↑ᅱᅥᅭᄆᄏ외ᄈ�ᆪᆲᄉᆱᅧᅦᅡᅧᄡᆱᄉ톼ᄒᄒ쑈ᄏᄡ₩ᅯᅳᆪᆲᅰ¬ᅱᅭᆰᅧᅦᅮᅮᅳᅡᅧᄡᆱᄉ톼ᄒᄒ쎠ᅦ쿠ᅳᅧᄉ텨ᅡᅧᆪᆲᅮᅥ¦ᅧᅦᄈ너ᅳᅧᄉ텨ᅡᅧᅨᆴᅥᄑ샤ᄆ¦ᄊᆵᆪᆲᄊᄏᆵ■ᅨᅰ뷔샤ᄡ샤ᅲᅧᄇᄍ차ᅮᅥ¦ᅧᅦᄈ너ᅳᅲᅧᄇ샤ᅡ→ᅮᅮᅳ쟈ᄆ¦ᄈ너ᅳᅡᅧᄀᆪᅥ¦ᄡᅫᆪᆲᅯ투ᅨᄏ묘ᅪᄒᄒᄊ[4]ᆪ뙈¦ᅧᆵᅦᅤᆪᆲ2013ᅣ↑ᆪᄅᆪᆲᄉ뮤ᅧᄇᄍ차샤ᅲᅧᄑᄡᅲᅯᅮᅳᅰᄆ효ᅧᄆᆪᆲᄆᄏᄏ£ᅯ투ᄒᆳ태ᅱ샤ᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᄀᆪ쮍ᆵ뼈ᅴᄋᄑᄑᆱᅨ새ᅭᅯᄡ₩○ᅫᅧᄑ쀠ᅮᆪᆲᅣᅦᅢᄡᅰᄆ효샤ᅲᅧᄇᄍ차ᄑᆱᅧ쮸ᄐᄆᄌᄑᄍ₩ᅣᆪ촤ᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᄊ퇴¢ᅮᆭᅯ투ᄀᆪ쮍ᆵ뼈ᅴᄋᄑᄑᆱᅨ새ᅭᅯᅬᅱ퐤ᅧᄑ쀠ᅮᆪᆲᄑᆱᄇᄏᄏ£쒀ᅲᄐᄆᄌᄑᄍ₩ᅣᆪ부ᄚᅬ↓ᆪᆲᄉᆱᅧᅦᅯᄏᄏ£ᅯ투ᄏᄡᄀᄏ묘ᄀᆪᄌᄒᄏ묘ᄍᄅ쟋ᅪᆪᆲᅯᅳᄏ묘뼤ᅧ�ᄇᄏᄆ¦샤ᅩ퇴ᅡᆪᆲᄍ ̄ᅭ¥ᄏ묘ᄍᄅᄌᄑᆱᅯ투ᄀᆪGerlach쉬ᄌᄈᄍ ̄ᅭ¥ᄏ묘샤뤠ᅤᅧᅦᅬᅱᅧᄉᄒᆳ태ᅱᅮᄚᅬ↓ᅪᄄ컈ᅰᅪ샤ᅭᄏᄌᄍ툐ᅨᆪᆲᅨᅣᅵᅱᄆ푸ᅧ쫘ᄄ컈ᅰᅪᄏᄉ퍄ᄆ↑ᅨᆴᅥᄑ[5]ᆪᄄGerlachᄉᆪᆲ2003ᅣ↑ᆪᄅᄀᆪᄐᄡᅧ쨔ᅵᅮᅮᅳ툐ᅪᆬᄀ꺼ᅭᄉ켜ᅦᅭᄉᄋ패₩ᅯᆳᅭᆪᆲᄏ묘뼤ᅧ�ᅬᅡᄑ셳ᆲᄈᆲᄊ○ᅲᄐᄆᄌ파ᅧ샤ᅬ�ᅭᄇᄑᆱ쨔ᅨᅭᅬ툐ᅪᆬ촤ᅥᅭᄉᄋᄁ얘ᄌᄊ¢샤ᄡ○ᆪᆲᅱᄃ쀠ᅨᅢᅦ푀ᄋ촤ᅪ쓔ᅧ쉬ᄃᄈᄀᆪ켜ᅦᅭᄇ쿼투ᅬᅥᅭᄉ촤툐ᅪᆬ샤ᅤᄡᆪᆲᄊ○ᅪ¬샤ᅲᄐᄆ죠뵤ᅯᅮᅱᅮᅳᅭᄐ¦ᄇᄑ│ᅡᅧᅬᅡᄑᄉᆪᆲᅰ¬ᅫᅭᄏ£ᅧ쨰ᄡᅧᄈ괴ᅣᅵᄋᄁ샤풰ᅤᅲᄡ새ᄉ푸ᄃᄏᄎᄑ¬ᄀᆪ│ᅭᆰᅲ꾜¬샤ᅧᅦᅯ너ᅳᅪᄒᄒ쒀ᅳᄏᆵ■ᅨ샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄏᄋᄒ뾔ᅡᄆᄏᄡᄡᅯᅦᅨᄀᆪBernanke쉬ᄌᄈᄡ샤ᅲᅧᄇᄍ차ᄑᆱᄏ£쟈ᄆ¦ᅧᄈᄀ쒀ᄑᆱᄡᅰ바ᅧ샤ᅯ너ᅳᆪᆲ■ᅡᅴᅬᅰ¬ᄉ틔ᅮᅳᅬᅧᄈᄀ뺴ᄉ→ᄑᆱᄆᆪ쀠 ̄ᅡᅧᅨᆴᅥ퓌ᄆᄉ펴ᄈ고ᄐ새ᄉᄑ쟈ᅥᆪᆲᅪᆲᅧ뭬¬ᄑᆱ므ᅪ외샤뺴ᄉ쥐ᄉ새ᅤᅫ[6]ᆪᄄBernankeᄉᆪᆲ2004ᅣ↑ᆪᄅᄀᆪᄑ쑈ᅯᅯᅦᅬ웨촤ᅪ쓔ᅧᅰ샤ᅤᅣᆪᆲᄚᅳᅪᅧᄈᄀ샤ᄆᆵ쯰ᅲᄡᅩᆲᆪᆲᅧᄍ툐ᅪᆬ촤ᅥᅭ숴죠¬ᅯ투ᄉ머ᅳᅬᄋ촤ᅪ쓔ᅧᆪᆲᄡᅮᄊᄡᅩᄐ뉴ᅵᄇᄈᄀᆪBenfordᅭ뷔ᄌ쀼ᅧᄇᄍ차ᅭᅯᅧ쪄ᄈ괘뻬ᄡᅪᄄ컈ᅰᅪ샤ᅯ너ᅳᆪᆲᄑᄊᄑᆱᅮᄚᅬ↓ᅥᅭᄉ샤ᄊᄄ틔ᅫᆰᆪᆲ표ᄏᄇ표ᅯᅱᄆ푸ᅪᅥᄊᆵᅪᄄ컈ᅰᅪ샤ᅫᄈ[7]ᆪᄄBenfordᆪᆲ2009ᅣ↑ᆪᄅᄀᆪᅥ¦ᅨᄡᆱᄉ톼ᄒᄒ쑤→ᄡᆱᅪᄈᄏ묘ᅰᄇ샤ᄡᆱᅪ뽜ᄒᄒᄊ푸표퀴ᅡᄀᆪ
�ᄀ꿰ᄆ효ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᄆ¦쒀ᅱᄍ샤ᅥᅧᄒ
ᆪ뚀ᄏᆪᄅᄑᄄ꽈↑ᅥᄀᄁ←ᄏ○샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티
2013ᅣ↑ᅭᅯᄡᅱᄍᄒᆳ태토뼈ᅫᄇ풔ᄈ놃ᅧᅥᆪᆲᅦᄚ�ᄐᄒ쎠쇠ᅱ쨔ᅳ뷰ᅵᅱᄉ3.87ᄀ105ᅭᅳᅯᆰᆪᆲᅪᆲ뭐ᄈᄂ7.7%ᆪᆲᅬ웨ᅫ틔ᅱ져�ᅪᆲ뫼ᅰᅦ2.5%ᄀᆪᅪᆲᅧᄆ프ᅧᄈ규ᅵᅩ¥ᅯᅨᅥ퐧ᆲ프ᄏᄍᄍᄡ₩ᄡ○ᅫᄇ풔ᄈᄂᆪᆲᄏ£ᅳᅲᅧᄍ₩ᅣᆪᄉᄑᄡ1.396ᄀ105ᅭᅳᅯᆰᆪᆲ뫼ᅣ↑ᅪᆲᅥᅳᅯ투2.24ᄀ104ᅭᅳᅯᆰᄀᆪᄉᆱᅧᅦᆪᆲᅣᅦᄚᅱᄍᄒᆳ태ᅯᅨᅱᅭ봛ᅢ₩ᅲᅤ외ᅰᅮ→ᅩᅰᄑᆪᆲᆪᆲᅱ거ᅭ스ᅲᅧᅣᅫᅧᅩ¬ᄀᄁᄉᄋ풰ᄌᆴᅰᆴᅫᅫᅧᅩ¬ᄀᄁᄋᄉ봐쓔ᅧᄍ₩ᅣᆪᄍ�ᄡ촤ᄋ틔ᅬᅰᅦᄍ�↓샤ᅫᅧᅩ¬ᄉᆪᆲᅰ¬뢔ᅧᅩ¬ᅨᄡᄡ샤ᄇᄏᄋᄊᄄ외ᅰᅬᅱᅪ뷰ᅤ쨔ᅳ프ᅧᄈᄀ샤ᅫᄊᄄᄀᆪᅢ₩쒀ᄡ■ᅲᅴᄌᄡᅯᅮ샤ᅣᅳᅪ¬ᄇᄏᄋᄒᄈᆪᆲᅱ쪠ᅢᅭᅮᆭ재ᄑᄄ꽈↑ᅥᄀᄁ←ᄏ○샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᄀᆪᄡᅮᅰᄆ효샤ᄒᆳ←ᄇ캬ᄡᄈᆪᆲᅭᄏᄋ패₩ᅪ↑ᅥ샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᅮᅱᅮᅳᅱ→ᅭᅮᆭ쒀ᅫᆪᄏ솨¬ᄇᄈ¥ᄏᄌ프ᅧᄈᄀᄡᄡ샤ᄡᄋᄊᆵᄉᄡᆪᄏ■ᅭᄏᄋ패₩ᅯᅳᄇ콻ᅧ머ᅳᄀᄁᄇ콻샤쨔ᅳᅪ¬ᄒᆳ태ᄏᄋᄒ뾔ᅡᆪᆲᄏ묘ᅰ보¥ᅬᄉ티ᄇᄁᄇ켜ᅦᅭᄏᄈᄇᄏᄆ¦샧ᆲᅭᅯᅲᄈ←ᄏ○쉐ᄀᆪ
ᆪᄄᄊᆪ로£ᄌᄡᄡᅡ촤ᅯᅨᅮᅢ틔ᄌᄀ껴�ᄉᄊ¢ᅱᅱᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂᄒ샤ᅣᅵᆭ
ᆱᅦᅯ프ᅫᆪᄏᄆᆲᄋ뀙ᅦᄚ샤푀ᄈ녀ᄆᄐ¦ᆪᆲᄍ텨ᅬᅱᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᅧᅦᄉᆬᅭ캬ᄆ↑ᆪᄄᄐᄡᅬ웨ᅫ틔ᅱ져�ᆪᄅ촤ᄉᆬᅭ켜ᅱ쐓ᄄᄐᄡᄉ프쏘ᅥᅳᅡᅧᆪᄅᄀᆪ재티ᅨ¦쿠ᅮᅳᅩ£줴ᄇ샤ᅪ재ᄊᄀ꽤ᄊ뗘ᄈ궈너ᅳᄀᄁᄏᄎᄑ¬ᄊᆵᅩᆲᄇ쿄퀴ᅡᅫᅧᅩ¬ᆪᆲᄉᆱᅧᅦᅯᅳᅧᄉ툐ᄇᄡ₩ᅯᅳᅭᄏ뢔ᅧᅩ¬ᆪᆲᅮᅥ¦ᅧᅦ ̄ᅡᅧᅰ뷡ᄎᆪᆲᅰ¬ᅩᅲ티쒀ᅮᅳᅫᄊᄄ프ᅧᄈᄀ샤ᄇᄄᄊᆵ죄ᅯ샎ᄇᄏᄡᅮᅣᄀᆪᅰᄆ효샤ᅰ벼ᄉ튀ᅭᅯᄋ꾀ᅱᆪᆲᅢ₩쒀ᄌᄡᅯᅮ샤쨔ᅳᅪ¬프ᅫᅧᅥᆪᆲᅮᅥ¦ᅧᅦ프ᅧᄈ궈¬ᅧᅵᄒᄡᄈ¥ᄏ샤ᅧᄆᄎᆪᆲ│ᅭᆰᅲᅴ최ᅯᅨᅮᅢ틔ᄌᄀ껴�ᄉᄊ¢ᅱᅱᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂ휴←쵟ᆲᅰ¬화ᅭᆰᅦᅱ쪠ᅢᅭᅣᅵᄍ쿠→ᅧᄆᄒ ̄ᄑᄀᄁᄇᄏ쐬ᅩ폐ᄡᄡᅡᅧᅧ최ᄊᆵᅯ쉐│ᅦ샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂᄒᆪᆲᅫᆰ프ᅧᄈᄀ샤ᅥ퐤ᅯᅨᅭᅯᄐᄚᄒᆳ태샤쀠ᅯᄈ노£ᄍᄅᄆᆪᅰᅬᄀᆪ
[봬퇘ᅣᅬᅲ]
[1] TAYLOR J B. The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework [J], Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1995, 9(4): 11-26.
[2] TOBIN, J. A General Equilibrium Approach To Monetary Theory [J]. Journal of Money, Feb, 1969, 1(1): 15-29.
[3] BRYANT, R, P. HOOPER, C MANN. Evaluating Policy Regimes: New Empirical Research in Empirical Macroeconomics [M]. Washington, D. C: Brookings Institution Press, 1993: 283-305.
[4] ᅫ¦ᅧᆵᅦᅤ. ᆱᅦ프ᅫᆪᄏ췌ᄆᄒ샤ᄏᆵ■ᅨᅰᄇ: ᄡᆱᄉ테ᄉᄐᄚ뷰ᄃᄍ[J]. ᄒᆳ태ᄒ봬ᄐ, 2013(9): 67-71.
[5] GERLACH S, L E O Svensson. Money and inflationin the euro area: A case for monetary indicators [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, 50(8): 1649-1672.
[6] BERNANKE, B S, V R REINHART. Conducting monetary policy at very low short-term interest rates [J]. American Economic Review, 2004. 94(2): 85-90.
[7] BENFORD J, S BERRY, K NIKOLOV, ed. Quantitative easing[OL]. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 2009(Q2): 90-100.
[ ᅯᅫᄆ¢ᄐᆳ○ᅮᄆ ]
�ᄀ꿰ᄆ효ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᄆ¦쒀ᅱᄍ샤ᅥᅧᄒ
ᆪ뚀ᄏᆪᄅᄑᄄ꽈↑ᅥᄀᄁ←ᄏ○샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티
2013ᅣ↑ᅭᅯᄡᅱᄍᄒᆳ태토뼈ᅫᄇ풔ᄈ놃ᅧᅥᆪᆲᅦᄚ�ᄐᄒ쎠쇠ᅱ쨔ᅳ뷰ᅵᅱᄉ3.87ᄀ105ᅭᅳᅯᆰᆪᆲᅪᆲ뭐ᄈᄂ7.7%ᆪᆲᅬ웨ᅫ틔ᅱ져�ᅪᆲ뫼ᅰᅦ2.5%ᄀᆪᅪᆲᅧᄆ프ᅧᄈ규ᅵᅩ¥ᅯᅨᅥ퐧ᆲ프ᄏᄍᄍᄡ₩ᄡ○ᅫᄇ풔ᄈᄂᆪᆲᄏ£ᅳᅲᅧᄍ₩ᅣᆪᄉᄑᄡ1.396ᄀ105ᅭᅳᅯᆰᆪᆲ뫼ᅣ↑ᅪᆲᅥᅳᅯ투2.24ᄀ104ᅭᅳᅯᆰᄀᆪᄉᆱᅧᅦᆪᆲᅣᅦᄚᅱᄍᄒᆳ태ᅯᅨᅱᅭ봛ᅢ₩ᅲᅤ외ᅰᅮ→ᅩᅰᄑᆪᆲᆪᆲᅱ거ᅭ스ᅲᅧᅣᅫᅧᅩ¬ᄀᄁᄉᄋ풰ᄌᆴᅰᆴᅫᅫᅧᅩ¬ᄀᄁᄋᄉ봐쓔ᅧᄍ₩ᅣᆪᄍ�ᄡ촤ᄋ틔ᅬᅰᅦᄍ�↓샤ᅫᅧᅩ¬ᄉᆪᆲᅰ¬뢔ᅧᅩ¬ᅨᄡᄡ샤ᄇᄏᄋᄊᄄ외ᅰᅬᅱᅪ뷰ᅤ쨔ᅳ프ᅧᄈᄀ샤ᅫᄊᄄᄀᆪᅢ₩쒀ᄡ■ᅲᅴᄌᄡᅯᅮ샤ᅣᅳᅪ¬ᄇᄏᄋᄒᄈᆪᆲᅱ쪠ᅢᅭᅮᆭ재ᄑᄄ꽈↑ᅥᄀᄁ←ᄏ○샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᄀᆪᄡᅮᅰᄆ효샤ᄒᆳ←ᄇ캬ᄡᄈᆪᆲᅭᄏᄋ패₩ᅪ↑ᅥ샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᅮᅱᅮᅳᅱ→ᅭᅮᆭ쒀ᅫᆪᄏ솨¬ᄇᄈ¥ᄏᄌ프ᅧᄈᄀᄡᄡ샤ᄡᄋᄊᆵᄉᄡᆪᄏ■ᅭᄏᄋ패₩ᅯᅳᄇ콻ᅧ머ᅳᄀᄁᄇ콻샤쨔ᅳᅪ¬ᄒᆳ태ᄏᄋᄒ뾔ᅡᆪᆲᄏ묘ᅰ보¥ᅬᄉ티ᄇᄁᄇ켜ᅦᅭᄏᄈᄇᄏᄆ¦샧ᆲᅭᅯᅲᄈ←ᄏ○쉐ᄀᆪ
ᆪᄄᄊᆪ로£ᄌᄡᄡᅡ촤ᅯᅨᅮᅢ틔ᄌᄀ껴�ᄉᄊ¢ᅱᅱᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂᄒ샤ᅣᅵᆭ
ᆱᅦᅯ프ᅫᆪᄏᄆᆲᄋ뀙ᅦᄚ샤푀ᄈ녀ᄆᄐ¦ᆪᆲᄍ텨ᅬᅱᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᅧᅦᄉᆬᅭ캬ᄆ↑ᆪᄄᄐᄡᅬ웨ᅫ틔ᅱ져�ᆪᄅ촤ᄉᆬᅭ켜ᅱ쐓ᄄᄐᄡᄉ프쏘ᅥᅳᅡᅧᆪᄅᄀᆪ재티ᅨ¦쿠ᅮᅳᅩ£줴ᄇ샤ᅪ재ᄊᄀ꽤ᄊ뗘ᄈ궈너ᅳᄀᄁᄏᄎᄑ¬ᄊᆵᅩᆲᄇ쿄퀴ᅡᅫᅧᅩ¬ᆪᆲᄉᆱᅧᅦᅯᅳᅧᄉ툐ᄇᄡ₩ᅯᅳᅭᄏ뢔ᅧᅩ¬ᆪᆲᅮᅥ¦ᅧᅦ ̄ᅡᅧᅰ뷡ᄎᆪᆲᅰ¬ᅩᅲ티쒀ᅮᅳᅫᄊᄄ프ᅧᄈᄀ샤ᄇᄄᄊᆵ죄ᅯ샎ᄇᄏᄡᅮᅣᄀᆪᅰᄆ효샤ᅰ벼ᄉ튀ᅭᅯᄋ꾀ᅱᆪᆲᅢ₩쒀ᄌᄡᅯᅮ샤쨔ᅳᅪ¬프ᅫᅧᅥᆪᆲᅮᅥ¦ᅧᅦ프ᅧᄈ궈¬ᅧᅵᄒᄡᄈ¥ᄏ샤ᅧᄆᄎᆪᆲ│ᅭᆰᅲᅴ최ᅯᅨᅮᅢ틔ᄌᄀ껴�ᄉᄊ¢ᅱᅱᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂ휴←쵟ᆲᅰ¬화ᅭᆰᅦᅱ쪠ᅢᅭᅣᅵᄍ쿠→ᅧᄆᄒ ̄ᄑᄀᄁᄇᄏ쐬ᅩ폐ᄡᄡᅡᅧᅧ최ᄊᆵᅯ쉐│ᅦ샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂᄒᆪᆲᅫᆰ프ᅧᄈᄀ샤ᅥ퐤ᅯᅨᅭᅯᄐᄚᄒᆳ태샤쀠ᅯᄈ노£ᄍᄅᄆᆪᅰᅬᄀᆪ
[봬퇘ᅣᅬᅲ]
[1] TAYLOR J B. The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework [J], Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1995, 9(4): 11-26.
[2] TOBIN, J. A General Equilibrium Approach To Monetary Theory [J]. Journal of Money, Feb, 1969, 1(1): 15-29.
[3] BRYANT, R, P. HOOPER, C MANN. Evaluating Policy Regimes: New Empirical Research in Empirical Macroeconomics [M]. Washington, D. C: Brookings Institution Press, 1993: 283-305.
[4] ᅫ¦ᅧᆵᅦᅤ. ᆱᅦ프ᅫᆪᄏ췌ᄆᄒ샤ᄏᆵ■ᅨᅰᄇ: ᄡᆱᄉ테ᄉᄐᄚ뷰ᄃᄍ[J]. ᄒᆳ태ᄒ봬ᄐ, 2013(9): 67-71.
[5] GERLACH S, L E O Svensson. Money and inflationin the euro area: A case for monetary indicators [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, 50(8): 1649-1672.
[6] BERNANKE, B S, V R REINHART. Conducting monetary policy at very low short-term interest rates [J]. American Economic Review, 2004. 94(2): 85-90.
[7] BENFORD J, S BERRY, K NIKOLOV, ed. Quantitative easing[OL]. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 2009(Q2): 90-100.
[ ᅯᅫᄆ¢ᄐᆳ○ᅮᄆ ]
�ᄀ꿰ᄆ효ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᄆ¦쒀ᅱᄍ샤ᅥᅧᄒ
ᆪ뚀ᄏᆪᄅᄑᄄ꽈↑ᅥᄀᄁ←ᄏ○샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티
2013ᅣ↑ᅭᅯᄡᅱᄍᄒᆳ태토뼈ᅫᄇ풔ᄈ놃ᅧᅥᆪᆲᅦᄚ�ᄐᄒ쎠쇠ᅱ쨔ᅳ뷰ᅵᅱᄉ3.87ᄀ105ᅭᅳᅯᆰᆪᆲᅪᆲ뭐ᄈᄂ7.7%ᆪᆲᅬ웨ᅫ틔ᅱ져�ᅪᆲ뫼ᅰᅦ2.5%ᄀᆪᅪᆲᅧᄆ프ᅧᄈ규ᅵᅩ¥ᅯᅨᅥ퐧ᆲ프ᄏᄍᄍᄡ₩ᄡ○ᅫᄇ풔ᄈᄂᆪᆲᄏ£ᅳᅲᅧᄍ₩ᅣᆪᄉᄑᄡ1.396ᄀ105ᅭᅳᅯᆰᆪᆲ뫼ᅣ↑ᅪᆲᅥᅳᅯ투2.24ᄀ104ᅭᅳᅯᆰᄀᆪᄉᆱᅧᅦᆪᆲᅣᅦᄚᅱᄍᄒᆳ태ᅯᅨᅱᅭ봛ᅢ₩ᅲᅤ외ᅰᅮ→ᅩᅰᄑᆪᆲᆪᆲᅱ거ᅭ스ᅲᅧᅣᅫᅧᅩ¬ᄀᄁᄉᄋ풰ᄌᆴᅰᆴᅫᅫᅧᅩ¬ᄀᄁᄋᄉ봐쓔ᅧᄍ₩ᅣᆪᄍ�ᄡ촤ᄋ틔ᅬᅰᅦᄍ�↓샤ᅫᅧᅩ¬ᄉᆪᆲᅰ¬뢔ᅧᅩ¬ᅨᄡᄡ샤ᄇᄏᄋᄊᄄ외ᅰᅬᅱᅪ뷰ᅤ쨔ᅳ프ᅧᄈᄀ샤ᅫᄊᄄᄀᆪᅢ₩쒀ᄡ■ᅲᅴᄌᄡᅯᅮ샤ᅣᅳᅪ¬ᄇᄏᄋᄒᄈᆪᆲᅱ쪠ᅢᅭᅮᆭ재ᄑᄄ꽈↑ᅥᄀᄁ←ᄏ○샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᄀᆪᄡᅮᅰᄆ효샤ᄒᆳ←ᄇ캬ᄡᄈᆪᆲᅭᄏᄋ패₩ᅪ↑ᅥ샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᅮᅱᅮᅳᅱ→ᅭᅮᆭ쒀ᅫᆪᄏ솨¬ᄇᄈ¥ᄏᄌ프ᅧᄈᄀᄡᄡ샤ᄡᄋᄊᆵᄉᄡᆪᄏ■ᅭᄏᄋ패₩ᅯᅳᄇ콻ᅧ머ᅳᄀᄁᄇ콻샤쨔ᅳᅪ¬ᄒᆳ태ᄏᄋᄒ뾔ᅡᆪᆲᄏ묘ᅰ보¥ᅬᄉ티ᄇᄁᄇ켜ᅦᅭᄏᄈᄇᄏᄆ¦샧ᆲᅭᅯᅲᄈ←ᄏ○쉐ᄀᆪ
ᆪᄄᄊᆪ로£ᄌᄡᄡᅡ촤ᅯᅨᅮᅢ틔ᄌᄀ껴�ᄉᄊ¢ᅱᅱᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂᄒ샤ᅣᅵᆭ
ᆱᅦᅯ프ᅫᆪᄏᄆᆲᄋ뀙ᅦᄚ샤푀ᄈ녀ᄆᄐ¦ᆪᆲᄍ텨ᅬᅱᄏ묘ᅰᄇ티ᅧᅦᄉᆬᅭ캬ᄆ↑ᆪᄄᄐᄡᅬ웨ᅫ틔ᅱ져�ᆪᄅ촤ᄉᆬᅭ켜ᅱ쐓ᄄᄐᄡᄉ프쏘ᅥᅳᅡᅧᆪᄅᄀᆪ재티ᅨ¦쿠ᅮᅳᅩ£줴ᄇ샤ᅪ재ᄊᄀ꽤ᄊ뗘ᄈ궈너ᅳᄀᄁᄏᄎᄑ¬ᄊᆵᅩᆲᄇ쿄퀴ᅡᅫᅧᅩ¬ᆪᆲᄉᆱᅧᅦᅯᅳᅧᄉ툐ᄇᄡ₩ᅯᅳᅭᄏ뢔ᅧᅩ¬ᆪᆲᅮᅥ¦ᅧᅦ ̄ᅡᅧᅰ뷡ᄎᆪᆲᅰ¬ᅩᅲ티쒀ᅮᅳᅫᄊᄄ프ᅧᄈᄀ샤ᄇᄄᄊᆵ죄ᅯ샎ᄇᄏᄡᅮᅣᄀᆪᅰᄆ효샤ᅰ벼ᄉ튀ᅭᅯᄋ꾀ᅱᆪᆲᅢ₩쒀ᄌᄡᅯᅮ샤쨔ᅳᅪ¬프ᅫᅧᅥᆪᆲᅮᅥ¦ᅧᅦ프ᅧᄈ궈¬ᅧᅵᄒᄡᄈ¥ᄏ샤ᅧᄆᄎᆪᆲ│ᅭᆰᅲᅴ최ᅯᅨᅮᅢ틔ᄌᄀ껴�ᄉᄊ¢ᅱᅱᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂ휴←쵟ᆲᅰ¬화ᅭᆰᅦᅱ쪠ᅢᅭᅣᅵᄍ쿠→ᅧᄆᄒ ̄ᄑᄀᄁᄇᄏ쐬ᅩ폐ᄡᄡᅡᅧᅧ최ᄊᆵᅯ쉐│ᅦ샤ᄏ묘ᅰᄇᄍᄂᄒᆪᆲᅫᆰ프ᅧᄈᄀ샤ᅥ퐤ᅯᅨᅭᅯᄐᄚᄒᆳ태샤쀠ᅯᄈ노£ᄍᄅᄆᆪᅰᅬᄀᆪ
[봬퇘ᅣᅬᅲ]
[1] TAYLOR J B. The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework [J], Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1995, 9(4): 11-26.
[2] TOBIN, J. A General Equilibrium Approach To Monetary Theory [J]. Journal of Money, Feb, 1969, 1(1): 15-29.
[3] BRYANT, R, P. HOOPER, C MANN. Evaluating Policy Regimes: New Empirical Research in Empirical Macroeconomics [M]. Washington, D. C: Brookings Institution Press, 1993: 283-305.
[4] ᅫ¦ᅧᆵᅦᅤ. ᆱᅦ프ᅫᆪᄏ췌ᄆᄒ샤ᄏᆵ■ᅨᅰᄇ: ᄡᆱᄉ테ᄉᄐᄚ뷰ᄃᄍ[J]. ᄒᆳ태ᄒ봬ᄐ, 2013(9): 67-71.
[5] GERLACH S, L E O Svensson. Money and inflationin the euro area: A case for monetary indicators [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, 50(8): 1649-1672.
[6] BERNANKE, B S, V R REINHART. Conducting monetary policy at very low short-term interest rates [J]. American Economic Review, 2004. 94(2): 85-90.
[7] BENFORD J, S BERRY, K NIKOLOV, ed. Quantitative easing[OL]. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 2009(Q2): 90-100.
[ ᅯᅫᄆ¢ᄐᆳ○ᅮᄆ ]
日本问题研究2014年3期