数学家联盟

Kevin Pelton

Every year when we arrive at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference①， reporters immediately open up the list of attendees and begin counting NBA teams. Using both hands and both feet wasnt sufficient to count all the way to this years total -- 29 of the 30 teams had at least one representative in attendance. The only exception？ The Los Angeles Lakers.

每年当我们来到麻省理工斯隆体育分析大会时，记者们都会关注参会者名单，然后数数参加大会的NBA球队数量。今年，用上你的双手双脚都数不过来了，因为30支球队里有29支都至少派了一个代表参加大会。唯一的那个例外？是洛杉矶湖人。

That figure has skyrocketed from 12 teams just four years ago， which shows the growth in both the Sloan conference （which had an attendance of nearly 3，000） and how NBA teams value statistical analysis.

这个数字与四年前的12支球队相比已经有了飞跃性的提高，这也显示了斯隆大会的成长（大约有3000名参会者），以及NBA球队对数据分析的重视。

Certainly， those involved have taken notice of the change. Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban， who took part in the "Revenge of the Nerds" panel that kicked off the two-day conference， recalled that when he was helping pioneer the field in the early 2000s， "You couldnt have a conversation with anyone." Then it was because few others understood the language Cuban was speaking. Now those conversations are limited primarily because teams are so secretive about what theyre doing， hoping to maintain their competitive advantage.

当然，那些参与其中的人也感受到了变化。小牛老板马克·库班，他才参加了为期2天的大会揭幕讨论“书呆子逆袭”，回忆起自己在21世纪最初几年帮助开拓这片领域时的情况时说，“你跟谁都说不上话。”因为在那时，没人能听懂他说的是什么。而现在，这些交流都是受限的，因为球队都会注重保护自己的隐私，希望能保持自己的竞争优势。

That leaves observers to read into what executives like Cuban， Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey （co-chair of the conference）， Indiana Pacers general manager Kevin Pritchard and San Antonio Spurs president R.C. Buford （who were part of the marquee Basketball Analytics panel） had to say all weekend.

那么诸如库班、火箭总经理达瑞尔·莫雷（大会联合主席）、步行者总经理凯文·普理查德和马刺总裁R.C.布福德（他是高级篮球分析小组的成员）这样的管理层人员在整个周末都说了些什么，解读这些的任务就得留给观察家们了。

Increasingly， however， we can see the influence of analytics in the game on the floor. Conference attendees each received a copy of ESPN The Magazines Analytics Issue， highlighted by a feature on how firstyear Portland Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts is using statistical analysis to inform his game plans. The Rockets shot selection -- rated the most efficient in the league by Hoopdata.coms expected effective field goal percentage --shows the front office putting its philosophy into play.

可以说，我们越来越多地在球场上看到了数据分析带来的影响。大会的每个参与者都得到了一份ESPN杂志的数据特刊，其中的亮点正是波特兰开拓者菜鸟主教练特里·斯托茨如何使用数据分析来制定他比赛计划的。火箭的出手选择则显示了球队管理层如何把自己的想法贯彻到比赛中，在Hoodata.com的预期有效命中率上，他们的排名在联盟最前列。

Even the leagues best team， San Antonio， has incorporated lessons provided by advanced statistics. Buford said reigning NBA Coach of the Year Gregg Popovich reconsidered the Spurs defensive philosophy because the team that led the NBA in defensive rating six times between 1999 and 2006 slipped to 11th each of the past two seasons. So far this season， San Antonio is back up to third in the league.

即便是联盟最好的球队，马刺也参与了由先进数据提供的课程中。布福德表示，NBA本年度的最佳教练格雷格·波波维奇重新考虑了马刺的防守计划，就是因为球队从防守数据领先者（1999年到2006年），跌落到过去两个赛季的联盟第11位。本赛季到目前为止，马刺在防守数据上已经回到了联盟第三。

Besides Cubans Mavericks， most of the NBAs other early adopters of statistics used them primarily to inform their decisions on player personnel. Now many teams are going beyond the information on tendencies that has long been part of scouting reports. Asked to predict the future of analytics， Morey answered that the game will be played differently after using a relatively similar set of strategies for decades. That kind of radical change would depend on the willingness of coaches to consider analysis that challenges the norm.

除了库班的小牛，早期接受数据分析的NBA球队主要把这用在了对球队阵容的决策方面。而现在，很多球队已经超越了把数据作为球探报告一部分的观念。当被问到对数据分析未来的预测时，莫雷表示，与过去几十年几乎一成不变的方法相比，现在球队的打法会不一样，本质上的改变则要看球队的教练们是否愿意使用数据分析。

When Basketball Analytics moderator Pablo Torre asked Buford and Pritchard whether theyd hire a coach opposed to analytics， they both emphasized openness to new ideas over the ability to spout off statistics. That certainly seems to describe former Orlando Magic coach Stan Van Gundy， who represented the coaching perspective on the panel. As Van Gundy protested that hes really not a stats guy， he described a philosophy that matches up well with what statistical analysts have learned in the past decade. In part because of his personnel in Orlando， Van Gundy placed a premium on the 3-pointer and shots around the rim， the most efficient options available.

当篮球分析部主席帕布罗·托里询问布福德和普理查德，他们是否愿意聘请一个反对数据分析的教练时，两人均强调，对新理念持开放态度比实际有分析能力更重要。看起来这非常适合描述前魔术主教练斯坦·范甘迪，他代表了小组讨论中教练一方的观点。范甘迪声称自己并不是真的执迷于数据，但他所描述的一种理念却很符合过去十年数据分析得出的结论。而一部分的原因在于他在魔术时球队的阵容，范甘迪把重点放在了三分和篮下得分，这都是最有效的得分区域。

Even when Van Gundy goes against the numbers -- as is the case with his rejection of the value of ensuring the 2-for-1 （two possessions to the opponents one） at the end of quarters -- hes considered the issue and weighed his options. （Van Gundy， like his brother， fears that giving players more latitude to take what would normally be bad shots creates problems with shot selection.）

即便当范甘迪站在数据的对立面时——比方说他不认同每节最后的2对1计划（己方两次进攻，对方一次）的价值——他也是在考虑这个问题，衡量自己的选择。（和他兄弟一样，范甘迪害怕给球员更多的自由，因为这可能会导致投篮选择的问题出现。）

It helps that， unlike in baseball， much of the early research in basketball tended to confirm conventional wisdom. Buford explained that Popovich got on board when he saw that the numbers backed up some of his philosophies. The next wave of statistical advancement may do the same. For the third consecutive year， the weekends star was the optical-tracking data collected by Stats LLC② for SportVU. Three of the four research papers that focused on the NBA used SportVUs numbers to address a variety of different questions about the game.

和棒球不同，篮球方面早期的研究倾向于证实那些传统的观点。布福德说，当波波维奇发现数据能支持他的一些理论时，他也开始接受数据分析。下一轮数据统计的进步浪潮也许还会有同样的效果。连续三年，大会的明星都是提供了光学跟踪数据的Stats LLC体育机构，四份研究报告中的三份把焦点集中在了使用SportVU数据的NBA球队，以此强调比赛问题的多样性。

SportVU， now in its third year in NBA arenas， is building a more robust data set all the time. Fully half of the leagues 30 teams have subscribed to SportVU and installed tracking cameras in their arenas， meaning every other game is captured with information on where players and the ball are on the court at all times.

SportVU落户NBA已经三年，他们在联盟打下了良好的根基。联盟30支球队有一半都订购的SportVU系统，在球馆内安装了跟踪摄像机，这意味着，每场比赛，球队的跑位和球的运动都会随时被记录。

While a presentation from Grantlands Kirk Goldsberry and Eric Weiss on the "Dwight Effect" and interior defense was primarily focused on evaluating players， a team of students from MIT and their professor took on a strategic question for coaches -- whether or not their players should crash the glass or get back on defense. Increasingly， NBA teams are retreating to prevent fast-break baskets， one reason the percentage of rebounds grabbed by the offense leaguewide has declined since the late 1980s.

当来自Grantland的柯克·戈兹贝里和埃里克·维斯进行“德怀特效应”的演讲，讲述内线防守的重点在于计算球员的价值时，来自麻省理工的一群学生和他们的教授则提出了一个战略层面的话题——球员到底该冲击篮板，还是直接退回去防守。NBA球队如今开始越来越多地退回防守，以防对方快攻得分，一个原因就是，从上世纪80年代末开始，联盟范围内的前场篮板率都在下滑。

When TrueHoop took up this issue during training camp， I used team performance to show that teams that increased their offensive rebounding relative to their defensive rebounding tended to get better on offense and worse on defense （and vice versa）， suggesting a trade-off. But that was a crude method that could not get at the role of coaching in the same way as the MIT study， which looked at how many players crashed or got back on any given missed shot.

当TrueHoop在训练营期间提出这个问题时，我利用球队的表现证明，相比后场篮板，当球队在前场篮板增加时，他们的进攻会变得更好，防守则变得更差（反之亦然），这显示这是一个相互抵消的作用。不过这只是很粗糙的统计，不可能像麻省理工的研究那样影响到执教，他们的研究会关注在一次投篮不中后有多少球员冲击前场篮板，或者有多少球员退回防守。

Also intriguing： The Rockets crashed the glass the most of any with a high number of plays in the SportVU database. That could be a coincidence， or it might be a sign Houston has drawn a similar conclusion from the data.

同样有意思的是：在SportVU的数据库中，火箭不仅回合数最多，冲击前场篮板的次数也是。这是巧合，但也许就是火箭得出了与数据相似的结论。

Of course， those insights wont reach all 30 teams at equal rates. The members of the Basketball Analytics panel were skeptical that there will ever be true analytical parity in the league， even if the NBA ultimately puts SportVU in eNBA arena. While teams might have access to the same data， they will do very different things with it.

当然，这些观点对于30支球队的影响并不相同。篮球分析小组的成员们怀疑，即便NBA最终把SportVU放进了电子赛场，联盟未来是否真的会那么重视分析也是未知。即便球队都能接触到同样的数据，但如何使用也是非常不同的。

That brings us back to the Lakers. Theyve used former head coach Rudy Tomjanovichs son， Trey， as a statistical consultant， so theyre not completely sitting out the revolution. The count of 29 other teams is a little misleading because at least one other team sent only business staffers. Still， rivals around the league arent necessarily missing the Lakers at Sloan.

这就把我们引向了湖人队。他们聘请前主教练鲁迪·汤姆贾诺维奇的儿子特雷作为球队的数据统计顾问，所以他们也不是完全置身于变革之外。而关于这29支球队的统计也有些许误导，因为至少有一支球队派出的仅仅是负责球队商业运营的工作人员。不过，对手们不会在斯隆大会上忘记湖人。

"From the Celtics perspective， its not a bad thing the Lakers arent here，" said Boston assistant GM Mike Zarren.

“从凯尔特人的角度，湖人不在这里并不是坏事。”凯尔特人助理总经理迈克·扎伦表示。

"If we can keep the Lakers out， thats fine with us，" added Buford.

“如果我们能一直把湖人排除在外，我们也没问题。”布福德补充道。

Too late. Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak told ESPNLA.com on Sunday that the team will send a representative to Boston next year， meaning by next year attendance could be mandatory throughout the NBA.

太晚了。湖人总经理米奇·库普切克周日向ESPNLA.com表示，球队明年会派出一名代表参加大会。这意味着，明年NBA参加这次大会也许就是强制性的了。

①麻省理工斯隆体育分析大会的目的，就是为体育产业提供一个指引，以讨论在整个产业中越来越重要的数据分析。这个会议始于2006年，由火箭队总经理莫雷和克拉夫特体育集团副总裁杰西卡·吉尔曼共同担任主席。参会的不仅有北美各大职业体育球队的管理层，也吸引了英超球队。除了球队外，各大商学院的学生也是大会最重要的参与者。斯隆体育分析大会每年2月或3月在波士顿地区进行。

②专门跟踪记录球场上球员和比赛进程的摄像数据系统，最初起源于以色列的军事光学跟踪系统。